Sri Lankans go to the polls Thursday to pick a replacement for outgoing President Chandrika Kumaratunga. Despite the inevitable emphatic assertions of victory by the two leading contenders, most analysts suggest it will be a photo-finish.
This is not only because both candidates have different vote banks and policies, but because with the country’s most powerful office up for grabs, electoral fraud is feared, particularly in the restive Northeast.
Premier Mahinda Rajapakse, representing the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) are relying on their parties’ respective party’s allies to deliver vote banks they don’t have access to.
Within days of the race to replace Kumaratunga being announced, Rajapakse, her party’s candidate, announced electoral pacts with the ultra Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP) and the hardline monks party, the Jeyatha Hela Urumaya (JHU) and got off to a flying start on the campaign trail.
Wickremesinghe was slow to announce his alliances, but the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), representing a substantial section of the Estate Tamil vote, swung behind, as did the other Estate party, the Upcountry People’s Front (UPF).
Wickremesinghe also secured the support of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the island’s largest Muslim party before it became beset by internal splits and controversies.
Rajapakse, however, has retained the support of another Muslim party, the National Unity Alliance (NUA).
Whilst Wickremesinghe is considered pro-market and an internationalist, Rajapakse is seen as a economic conservative and a traditionalist. These have resulted in them courting different vote banks: Wickremesinghe the urban, educated middle class and Rajapakse the rural poor.
Both candidates have pledged a raft of subsidies on goods, from milk powder to fertiliser for the rural poor and farmers, in a $20 billion economy whose biggest currency earners include foreign remittances, garment and tea exports and tourism.
As in all elections, Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism, has entered the poll campaigns. Rajapkse was the first to embrace it, vowing to defend the unitary status of Sri Lanka – in other words, not conceding an inch to the minorities – and to address Wickremesinghe’s weakening, as he described it, of national security through the peace process with the Tamil Tigers.
Wickremesinghe was less overt in courting the Sinhala nationalist vote, titling his manifesto’s section on the peace process ‘Defeating Separatism.’ But in the past two weeks, as it has become clear the Tamil vote will not be coming his way, Wickremesinghe has also rushed to trumpet his nationalist credentials.
At one closing rally, for example, Wickremesinghe had held up the Lion flag and vowed to unite the island under it. A close confidante, Milinda Moragoda, boasted last week of how the UNP-led government of 2001-3 had trapped the LTTE in an international safety net, engineered a split within the organisation and sunk its ships.
The alliances with the Estate and Muslim and the division amongst the Sinhala voters has left analysts unsure as to who has the upper hand.
The Colombo Stock Market has for several weeks been rising in the anticipation of a Wickremesinghe victory, but has slid sharply in recent days, as it has become clear the Tamil vote may not being accruing to him.
In a clear signal to Tamil voters, the Liberation Tiger have expressed their disgust with both candidates and indirectly signalled a boycott would be preferable.
But while the LTTE says it will not intervene to prevent Tamils from voting, Army-backed Tamil paramilitary groups are expected to rig polls in some areas in favour of Rajapakse.
Two paramilitary groups, the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) in Jaffna and the Karuna Group in Batticaloa, have urged people to vote for Rajapakse and throughout Wednesday there have been reports of gunmen seizing voter’s registration cards in parts of Jaffna.
Indicative of the prevailing uncertainty of the outcome, the Colombo Bourse rocketed 4% Wednesday on the back of an erroneous report in the Daily Mirror that the LTTE had reversed its stand and was urging Tamils to turn out and vote. The LTTE has flatly denied the report.
More than 13 million people are eligible to vote in the presidential election, Sri Lanka’s fourth national poll in six years. Many voters are said to be apathetic at the prospect of another election.
Ballot boxes have been taken to nearly 10,000 polling stations.
Tens of thousands of police and soldiers took up positions across Sri Lanka Wednesday – though the UNP fears some senior military officers are supporting those rigging in favour of Rajapakse.
Sri Lanka has a history of election bloodshed, but this campaign has been one of the most peaceful for years.
Nevertheless, foreign aid groups and diplomatic missions have ordered staff to stay indoors on election day and some have advised them to stockpile food, Reuters reported. Liquor sales have been banned over the election period to dampen partisan rivalry.
Intimidation in the Northeast [Nov. 16, 2005]
Editorial: Constant Factor [Nov. 16, 2005]
A deficit in Sri Lankan democracy? [Nov. 16, 2005]
The paradox of the Tamil vote [Nov. 16, 2005]
This is not only because both candidates have different vote banks and policies, but because with the country’s most powerful office up for grabs, electoral fraud is feared, particularly in the restive Northeast.
Premier Mahinda Rajapakse, representing the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) are relying on their parties’ respective party’s allies to deliver vote banks they don’t have access to.
Within days of the race to replace Kumaratunga being announced, Rajapakse, her party’s candidate, announced electoral pacts with the ultra Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP) and the hardline monks party, the Jeyatha Hela Urumaya (JHU) and got off to a flying start on the campaign trail.
Wickremesinghe was slow to announce his alliances, but the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC), representing a substantial section of the Estate Tamil vote, swung behind, as did the other Estate party, the Upcountry People’s Front (UPF).
Wickremesinghe also secured the support of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the island’s largest Muslim party before it became beset by internal splits and controversies.
Rajapakse, however, has retained the support of another Muslim party, the National Unity Alliance (NUA).
Whilst Wickremesinghe is considered pro-market and an internationalist, Rajapakse is seen as a economic conservative and a traditionalist. These have resulted in them courting different vote banks: Wickremesinghe the urban, educated middle class and Rajapakse the rural poor.
Both candidates have pledged a raft of subsidies on goods, from milk powder to fertiliser for the rural poor and farmers, in a $20 billion economy whose biggest currency earners include foreign remittances, garment and tea exports and tourism.
As in all elections, Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism, has entered the poll campaigns. Rajapkse was the first to embrace it, vowing to defend the unitary status of Sri Lanka – in other words, not conceding an inch to the minorities – and to address Wickremesinghe’s weakening, as he described it, of national security through the peace process with the Tamil Tigers.
Wickremesinghe was less overt in courting the Sinhala nationalist vote, titling his manifesto’s section on the peace process ‘Defeating Separatism.’ But in the past two weeks, as it has become clear the Tamil vote will not be coming his way, Wickremesinghe has also rushed to trumpet his nationalist credentials.
At one closing rally, for example, Wickremesinghe had held up the Lion flag and vowed to unite the island under it. A close confidante, Milinda Moragoda, boasted last week of how the UNP-led government of 2001-3 had trapped the LTTE in an international safety net, engineered a split within the organisation and sunk its ships.
The alliances with the Estate and Muslim and the division amongst the Sinhala voters has left analysts unsure as to who has the upper hand.
The Colombo Stock Market has for several weeks been rising in the anticipation of a Wickremesinghe victory, but has slid sharply in recent days, as it has become clear the Tamil vote may not being accruing to him.
In a clear signal to Tamil voters, the Liberation Tiger have expressed their disgust with both candidates and indirectly signalled a boycott would be preferable.
But while the LTTE says it will not intervene to prevent Tamils from voting, Army-backed Tamil paramilitary groups are expected to rig polls in some areas in favour of Rajapakse.
Two paramilitary groups, the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) in Jaffna and the Karuna Group in Batticaloa, have urged people to vote for Rajapakse and throughout Wednesday there have been reports of gunmen seizing voter’s registration cards in parts of Jaffna.
Indicative of the prevailing uncertainty of the outcome, the Colombo Bourse rocketed 4% Wednesday on the back of an erroneous report in the Daily Mirror that the LTTE had reversed its stand and was urging Tamils to turn out and vote. The LTTE has flatly denied the report.
More than 13 million people are eligible to vote in the presidential election, Sri Lanka’s fourth national poll in six years. Many voters are said to be apathetic at the prospect of another election.
Ballot boxes have been taken to nearly 10,000 polling stations.
Tens of thousands of police and soldiers took up positions across Sri Lanka Wednesday – though the UNP fears some senior military officers are supporting those rigging in favour of Rajapakse.
Sri Lanka has a history of election bloodshed, but this campaign has been one of the most peaceful for years.
Nevertheless, foreign aid groups and diplomatic missions have ordered staff to stay indoors on election day and some have advised them to stockpile food, Reuters reported. Liquor sales have been banned over the election period to dampen partisan rivalry.
Intimidation in the Northeast [Nov. 16, 2005]
Editorial: Constant Factor [Nov. 16, 2005]
A deficit in Sri Lankan democracy? [Nov. 16, 2005]
The paradox of the Tamil vote [Nov. 16, 2005]
