With five weeks to go before November’s Presidential election, the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)’s candidate is yet to publish his manifesto. With good reason – its contents will be dictated by how tensions between Mahinda Rajapakse and his party leader, incumbent President Chandrika Kumaratunga, are resolved.
Rajapakse, who is also Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, is setting a party precedent – he is the first candidate for the country’s top ruling post that is not from the Bandaranaike clan which founded the SLFP and has dominated its leadership since.
President Kumaratunga, who is precluded from competing for a third term, had fought to stay in office till next year to have adequate time to abolish the Presidency and seek election to an empowered Prime Minister’s post.
But agitation by the main opposition United National Party (UNP), whose candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe has - with the reluctant backing of the Kumaratunga-appointed Supreme Court - compelled an election to be held this year.
The Court’s ruling also galvanized Rajapakse’s challenge for the role – and promptly triggered created a split within the SLFP, pitting the old guard loyal to the Bandaranaikes against Rajapakse’s modernizers.
The rift spilled into the open in the wake of Rajapakse’s swiftly forged electoral pacts with the Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Buddhist monks’ party Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU).
Kumaratunga has lambasted the Premier for not seeking her permission before signing the pacts which, she says, contradict the SLFP’s policies.
Kumaratunga’s brother, Anura Bandaranaike, has also lashed out at the premier– even though he was seated alongside when Rajapakse signed the pact with the JVP.
Ironically, until recently, the JVP and SLFP were in the ruling coalition, having jointly toppled the UNP regime in April 2004. The JVP quit the government in June this year in protest at Kumaratunga’s succumbing to international pressure to sign an aid pact with the LTTE.
For the past several weeks Rajapakse’s campaign has been hamstrung as the SLFP party machinery has dithered without clarity of direction amid swirling rumours Kumaratunga was going to discipline Rajapakse, replace him with another candidate or even dissolve Parliament.
None of these have come to pass, but the ongoing uncertainty has allowed the UNP and Wickremesinghe to surge ahead. Meanwhile Rajapakse’s Sinhala hardline stances have paved the way for the UNP to strike key alliances with the Estate Tamil parties and Sri Lanka’s largest Muslim parties.
Now, despite Rajapakse’s flying start, Wickremesinghe has closed the gap. Nevertheless, many observers say the race is too close to call.
But Rajapakse’s chances rest largely on Kumaratunga’s next move. If she eases off and supports him on the campaign trail, then Rajapakse may yet win. If, on the other hand, Kumaratunga remains hostile or even recalcitrant, then the SLFP machinery will drift directionless and Wickremesinghe should romp home.
Rajapakse’s camp has been somewhat encouraged after Kumaratunga addressed a rally by his supporters in rural south this week. They would have been cheered even more by the President’s apparent resigned acceptance that her political career may be over.
Kumaratunga told the rally in Wariyapola she would retire from politics in November after the election of a successor. She would not accept any political office after retirement but would be available for any other work in the service of the people of Sri Lanka, press reports quoted her as saying.
“I hope [the LTTE] would forget me and let me live a private life without fear,” Kumaratunga is reported to have also said.
The Daily Mirror reported Kumaratunga had even tried to airlift Anura to address the rally, but inclement weather had prevented the Air Force helicopter from making the trip.
In his speech Rajapakse pledged to safeguard party policies and he believed the President should not retire from politics but should be there to guide the party.
Sri Lankan newspapers have carried pictures of Rajapakse and Kumaratunga at the rally chatting and laughing.
But analysts of the island’s complex politics say the acid test is yet to come – the contents of the SLFP’s manifesto, due Sunday according to some reports. And the signs of internal strife are still there.
At the heart of the policy dispute would be devolution – or the rejection thereof.
Rajapakse’s pacts with the JVP and JHU leave no room for ambiguity – he is sworn to uphold state’s unity and territorial integrity. But Kumaratunga insists the SLFP is committed to devolution.
Political analysts say the SLFP’s past efforts at devolution have been nominal – weak proposals drafted originally in 1995 were repeatedly watered down under Sinhala pressure. The proposals themselves were binned in 2000 amid vehement street protests led by the JVP – and tacitly encouraged by the then opposition UNP, which refused to come to the SLFP-led coalition’s aid.
Nevertheless, Kumaratunga is insistent the SLFP must stand for devolution – an assertion she repeated from Rajapakse’s stage this week.
“Some may protest. But the SLFP-led PA is committed to devolution of power and this is accepted by more than 75% of the people of the country,” Kumaratunga declared as the Premier watched.
She said the SLFP’s strength had been its policies which could not be arbitrarily changed by any individual.
The President added even Wickremesinghe had expressed appreciation of the SLFP policy on the ethnic conflict. Notably her comments come amid calls by the UNP leader for the main Sinhala parties to unite to take on the LTTE in resolving the Tamil question.
Rajapakse needs Kumaratunga’s support to ensure a strong finish in November’s elections, and is visibly hostage to her notoriously unpredictable and self-interested moves.
And amid the stark polarization which has now emerged between Sri Lanka’s minorities, who are coalescing behind the UNP and the Sinhala nationalist rallying behind the SLFP, advocates of the peace process are daring to hope.
Rajapakse, who is also Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, is setting a party precedent – he is the first candidate for the country’s top ruling post that is not from the Bandaranaike clan which founded the SLFP and has dominated its leadership since.
President Kumaratunga, who is precluded from competing for a third term, had fought to stay in office till next year to have adequate time to abolish the Presidency and seek election to an empowered Prime Minister’s post.
But agitation by the main opposition United National Party (UNP), whose candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe has - with the reluctant backing of the Kumaratunga-appointed Supreme Court - compelled an election to be held this year.
The Court’s ruling also galvanized Rajapakse’s challenge for the role – and promptly triggered created a split within the SLFP, pitting the old guard loyal to the Bandaranaikes against Rajapakse’s modernizers.
The rift spilled into the open in the wake of Rajapakse’s swiftly forged electoral pacts with the Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Buddhist monks’ party Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU).
Kumaratunga has lambasted the Premier for not seeking her permission before signing the pacts which, she says, contradict the SLFP’s policies.
Kumaratunga’s brother, Anura Bandaranaike, has also lashed out at the premier– even though he was seated alongside when Rajapakse signed the pact with the JVP.
Ironically, until recently, the JVP and SLFP were in the ruling coalition, having jointly toppled the UNP regime in April 2004. The JVP quit the government in June this year in protest at Kumaratunga’s succumbing to international pressure to sign an aid pact with the LTTE.
For the past several weeks Rajapakse’s campaign has been hamstrung as the SLFP party machinery has dithered without clarity of direction amid swirling rumours Kumaratunga was going to discipline Rajapakse, replace him with another candidate or even dissolve Parliament.
None of these have come to pass, but the ongoing uncertainty has allowed the UNP and Wickremesinghe to surge ahead. Meanwhile Rajapakse’s Sinhala hardline stances have paved the way for the UNP to strike key alliances with the Estate Tamil parties and Sri Lanka’s largest Muslim parties.
Now, despite Rajapakse’s flying start, Wickremesinghe has closed the gap. Nevertheless, many observers say the race is too close to call.
But Rajapakse’s chances rest largely on Kumaratunga’s next move. If she eases off and supports him on the campaign trail, then Rajapakse may yet win. If, on the other hand, Kumaratunga remains hostile or even recalcitrant, then the SLFP machinery will drift directionless and Wickremesinghe should romp home.
Rajapakse’s camp has been somewhat encouraged after Kumaratunga addressed a rally by his supporters in rural south this week. They would have been cheered even more by the President’s apparent resigned acceptance that her political career may be over.
Kumaratunga told the rally in Wariyapola she would retire from politics in November after the election of a successor. She would not accept any political office after retirement but would be available for any other work in the service of the people of Sri Lanka, press reports quoted her as saying.
“I hope [the LTTE] would forget me and let me live a private life without fear,” Kumaratunga is reported to have also said.
The Daily Mirror reported Kumaratunga had even tried to airlift Anura to address the rally, but inclement weather had prevented the Air Force helicopter from making the trip.
In his speech Rajapakse pledged to safeguard party policies and he believed the President should not retire from politics but should be there to guide the party.
Sri Lankan newspapers have carried pictures of Rajapakse and Kumaratunga at the rally chatting and laughing.
But analysts of the island’s complex politics say the acid test is yet to come – the contents of the SLFP’s manifesto, due Sunday according to some reports. And the signs of internal strife are still there.
At the heart of the policy dispute would be devolution – or the rejection thereof.
Rajapakse’s pacts with the JVP and JHU leave no room for ambiguity – he is sworn to uphold state’s unity and territorial integrity. But Kumaratunga insists the SLFP is committed to devolution.
Political analysts say the SLFP’s past efforts at devolution have been nominal – weak proposals drafted originally in 1995 were repeatedly watered down under Sinhala pressure. The proposals themselves were binned in 2000 amid vehement street protests led by the JVP – and tacitly encouraged by the then opposition UNP, which refused to come to the SLFP-led coalition’s aid.
Nevertheless, Kumaratunga is insistent the SLFP must stand for devolution – an assertion she repeated from Rajapakse’s stage this week.
“Some may protest. But the SLFP-led PA is committed to devolution of power and this is accepted by more than 75% of the people of the country,” Kumaratunga declared as the Premier watched.
She said the SLFP’s strength had been its policies which could not be arbitrarily changed by any individual.
The President added even Wickremesinghe had expressed appreciation of the SLFP policy on the ethnic conflict. Notably her comments come amid calls by the UNP leader for the main Sinhala parties to unite to take on the LTTE in resolving the Tamil question.
Rajapakse needs Kumaratunga’s support to ensure a strong finish in November’s elections, and is visibly hostage to her notoriously unpredictable and self-interested moves.
And amid the stark polarization which has now emerged between Sri Lanka’s minorities, who are coalescing behind the UNP and the Sinhala nationalist rallying behind the SLFP, advocates of the peace process are daring to hope.
