Sri Lanka's military has been unable to push into Tamil Tiger strongholds in the north due to the threat of monsoon rains and a lack of manpower, defence officials and analysts say.
The government had hoped to build on recent territorial gains in the east of the troubled island by going after guerrilla bases in the northern Wanni region, where the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) run a mini-state.
"Inter-monsoon rains start in October and it will be difficult to move tanks and heavy guns in boggy conditions," said one field commander who asked not to be named.
"But in the run-up to the monsoon, there could be smaller-scale operations."
The LTTE last month admitted losing its final bastion in the jungles of Sri Lanka's Eastern province, but vowed to keep up hit-and-run attacks in the area.
One senior officer attributed the victory last month to a combination of superior tactics, firepower and guerrilla-style attacks behind enemy lines.
"What they used to do is send small groups to harass us. We had to tie up a large force to hold our static positions," he said, requesting anonymity. "This time, we infiltrated their lines and kept them on their toes."
But for defence analyst Namal Perera, that success may require the deployment of a huge number of troops if the military wants to maintain control over the areas wrested from the rebels.
"With the manpower commitment in the east expected to be very heavy, it will be a challenge to deploy more men for a new offensive in the north," Perera said. "It will be difficult at this time."
"As long as the army is tied down in the east, the LTTE knows the military will not make a new push in the north."
LTTE spokesman Rasiah Ilanthiriyan admitted the Tigers had suffered a setback with the loss of territory in the east, but said they were bolstering their defences in the north.
"Militarily you can't call this an advantageous situation," Ilanthiriyan said. "Because, if you want to control one region, you may have to lose control over another region."
The Rivira newspaper reported that the Tigers had withdrawn cadres from the eastern front and sent them to the north.
"The next battle which will start in the Wanni will be decisive for both parties," the paper's defence analyst Tissa Ravindra Perera said.
The military has suffered heavy losses trying to break into LTTE territory in the north of the island in recent weeks, while the Tigers have experienced similar setbacks trying to gain a foothold in the army-held Jaffna peninsula.
A recently retired senior military officer predicted that government forces might not be able to replicate in the north the tactics used in the east because the terrain was different.
"In the east, there are no clearly demarcated areas of control and that helped us to sneak into areas dominated by the Tigers," said the retired officer, declining to be named.
"In the north, there is a physical boundary and getting through that is not going to be easy. We have already lost a few groups that tried."
A February 2002 truce arranged by Norway is in tatters and some 5,200 people have been killed in fighting in the past 19 months alone, according to government figures.
Sunanda Deshapriya, director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, an independent think-tank, said neither side was keen on returning to negotiations that collapsed last October and predicted the "war atmosphere" would continue.
