Sri Lanka's peace process is in tatters with both the government and Tamil Tigers once again pushing for a military solution, according to diplomats close to efforts to end the conflict.
International sponsors of the peace process are also resigned to Asia's longest-running civil war dragging on for years to come, saying the two sides are only likely to return to talks once they are exhausted by more bloodshed.
“Neither the government nor the Tigers are interested in paying anything more than lip service to the peace process and the 2002 ceasefire,” said one official involved in the Norwegian-led peace effort.
“The Norwegians are only acting as facilitators, not to impose anything. But at the present time, they are not being asked to facilitate anything,” said the diplomat, who asked not to be named.
The ceasefire, along with the peace negotiations, broke down last year -- leaving both sides squaring up for another round in the 35-year-old ethnic conflict.
Last November, Tamil Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran declared his people would pursue their own independent state.
Recent months have seen a sharp escalation in the fighting, with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) losing ground in the east in January and the armed forces vowing to clear the entire area of Tigers once and for all before turning their attention to the Tigers' mini-state in the north.
The LTTE's political wing leader S. P. Thamilselvan vowed the Tigers would hit back soon, describing the loss of territory for them as a simple change in their tactics.
“We have not withdrawn from the east,” Thamilselvan told AFP in an e-mail interview.
“I believe only our actions in the coming period will answer (government) propaganda whether the Sri Lankan military has won a stable victory.”
The government has jacked up the defence budget by 45 percent to 1.29 billion dollars this year. The talk in Colombo is of war, albeit packaged as a “humanitarian defensive operation”.
“Within the next two to three years we should be able to eliminate them,” a senior government defence official told reporters in Colombo last month.
Although Sri Lanka's President Mahinda Rajapakse has stopped short of fulfilling his election campaign pledge of expelling the Norwegians, Sri Lankan officials are displaying a thinly-disguised loathing of Nordic truce monitors, international organisations and NGOs -- accused of pro-LTTE leanings and restricted in their scope of operations as a result.
Journalists attempting to cover the conflict are also barred by the government from entering Tiger territory.
Diplomats say their patience has run out, and the peace process has been put on ice.
Even the United States - seen as more sympathetic to Sri Lanka's fight against the LTTE, a designated terrorist organisation - is said to be frustrated that its pleas for a negotiated settlement have been ignored.
Fighting is now expected to intensify in the east while the Tigers will be under pressure to show their reach - something they displayed earlier this month with their first-ever air strike.
“What we can expect over the coming months is more tit-for-tat violence: government forces pushing into LTTE territory and the Tigers carrying out more high-profile attacks,” said the diplomat.
“The feeling now (among international players) is: let the government and the Tigers clobber each other some more, and when they are tired out we can help nudge them back to the table,” said another international official.
At the Colombo office of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), caretakers of the truce, the mood is gloomy, but realistic.
According to SLMM spokesman Thorfinnur Omarsson, the 2002 ceasefire still exists on paper and is still being monitored.
“Unfortunately it has been violated constantly, in fact every day in recent months,” he said, adding the SLMM at least continued to provide a “tool to independently document what is going on on the ground.”
“We still hope that this calms down and the parties start talking again, then our work will be of use.”
Defence analyst Namal Perera said the Tigers retained the ability to carry out spectacular attacks despite added military pressure in recent months.
“Their ability to stage attacks and take troops by surprise was also demonstrated with the air attacks last month,” Perera said.
Retired army brigadier general Vipul Boteju lamented the fact that neither side is likely to return to the negotiating table anytime soon.
“This is not something that can be tackled only through military means,” Boteju said.
“There must be a political (devolution) package and the longer we delay it, the more people will get killed.”