The Sri Lankan government is building up to large scale war in the north of the island and has stepped up operations with the stated aim capturing Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) administered Vanni by August next year.
Earlier this month, the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) Commander Lt. Gen Sarth Fonseka addressing his high ranking officers in the Army Headquarters declared that he would wipe out the LTTE by August next year. He requested the officers’ fullest commitment towards this goal.
Skirmishes along the Forward Defence Lines (FDLs) have intensified in the past month with the SLA trying to breach LTTE defences on a daily basis.
The attacks are on three fronts around Vanni: through Muhamaalai- Nagarkovil FDL in the Jaffna peninsula in the north, Mannar in the southwest and Manalaaru in the southeast.
The southern FDL running on either side of Omanthai, dividing the Sri Lankan government controlled territory and the LTTE administered Vanni which lies north of Vavuniya, links Mannar and Manalaaru.
Some of these incursions have resulted in severe casualties on the Sri Lankan side.
On Saturday 22 December, LTTE thwarted a major SLA offensive towards Uyilangkulam in Mannaar. Backed with heavy artillery and Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher fire, the SLA troops attempted to enter LTTE controlled area on two fronts, but were defeated after 12 hours of fierce resistance in which 17 SLA troopers were killed and 54 wounded.
Previously on Tuesday 11 December, the LTTE beat back another major two-pronged offensive by the Sri Lankan forces in the Mannar region killing at least 20 soldiers and injuring more than 75.
LTTE military spokesperson, Mr Ilanthirayan said SLA began retreating in two fronts in Adampan and Paalaikkuzhi after three hours of fierce resistance by the LTTE.
He further added that at 6:00 p.m. the SLA was pushed back to its original FDL position and the LTTE recovered arms and ammunition from the battle field including Rocket Propelled Grenade Launchers, assault rifles and explosives.
With daily skirmishes and no real progress from the military onslaught, the Sri Lankan defence establishment has been twisting casualty numbers, inflating LTTE casualties.
According to Sri Lankan defence ministry 371 LTTE fighters have been killed in battle since December 1, at a rate of 15 fighters a day, whilst only a tiny handful of government troops were reported killed in battle in the same period.
Commenting on the current situation, Indian military analyst and former IPKF intellgence head R. Hariharan said: "They have nibbled into LTTE territory. But persisting along the failed axis will not yield results."
Speaking to Sunday Leader newspaper Hariharan stated that the Vanni is a difficult terrain for the Sri Lankan army and LTTE would be able to retaliate easily against any attack.
"They (Tigers) always bounce back in the Vanni which is a difficult terrain due to trees that grow up to 60 ft. This makes air support difficult and operations, time consuming.”
According to Hariharan, the LTTE will hold out without difficulty unless the SLA launches a huge offensive.
Echoing other analysts’ opinion that the daily offensives by the SLA is to keep the LTTE forces from building up for a major offensive against the Sri Lankan military, Hariharan said: “the Sri Lankan army is lulling the LTTE into a routine of skirmishes almost daily and [would] break in suddenly without giving (the Tigers) time to build.”
But the battles would be bloody and long, he warned. The Tigers and the security forces maintain a three tier defence line along the FDL, and breaking through the heavily mined line from either side is not going to be an easy task.
However, the government of hard-line president Mahinda Rajapkase believes in a military solution to the ethnic conflict and has been whipping up popular support for its war and building its military capacity through intense recruitment and arms purchasing.
A survey conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) this month through interviews with 1,600 Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and Indian origin Tamils in eight of the nine provinces in November revealed that 87.3 percent of Sinhalese - the majority community - were 'satisfied' with the way the government was waging the war.
The Sri Lanka Army has recently raised a new division, the 59th Division, to bolster its strength, bringing the number of such units to thirteen. According to government media the new division has already been inducted into service are providing back up the troops in the Wanni FDLs from Mannar to Kokkuthuduvai, an area that has seen intense fighting in the past few weeks.
On Friday 14 December, the Sri Lankan parliament approved the 2008 budget which has allocated vast amounts of money for military expenditure with resounding majority.
Parliament voted 114 to 67 in favour of the budget, which has allocated 166.44 billion rupees (1.51 billion dollars), raising the country's defence spending to just under a fifth of total government expenditure.
Earlier this month, the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) Commander Lt. Gen Sarth Fonseka addressing his high ranking officers in the Army Headquarters declared that he would wipe out the LTTE by August next year. He requested the officers’ fullest commitment towards this goal.
Skirmishes along the Forward Defence Lines (FDLs) have intensified in the past month with the SLA trying to breach LTTE defences on a daily basis.
The attacks are on three fronts around Vanni: through Muhamaalai- Nagarkovil FDL in the Jaffna peninsula in the north, Mannar in the southwest and Manalaaru in the southeast.
The southern FDL running on either side of Omanthai, dividing the Sri Lankan government controlled territory and the LTTE administered Vanni which lies north of Vavuniya, links Mannar and Manalaaru.
Some of these incursions have resulted in severe casualties on the Sri Lankan side.
On Saturday 22 December, LTTE thwarted a major SLA offensive towards Uyilangkulam in Mannaar. Backed with heavy artillery and Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher fire, the SLA troops attempted to enter LTTE controlled area on two fronts, but were defeated after 12 hours of fierce resistance in which 17 SLA troopers were killed and 54 wounded.
Previously on Tuesday 11 December, the LTTE beat back another major two-pronged offensive by the Sri Lankan forces in the Mannar region killing at least 20 soldiers and injuring more than 75.
LTTE military spokesperson, Mr Ilanthirayan said SLA began retreating in two fronts in Adampan and Paalaikkuzhi after three hours of fierce resistance by the LTTE.
He further added that at 6:00 p.m. the SLA was pushed back to its original FDL position and the LTTE recovered arms and ammunition from the battle field including Rocket Propelled Grenade Launchers, assault rifles and explosives.
With daily skirmishes and no real progress from the military onslaught, the Sri Lankan defence establishment has been twisting casualty numbers, inflating LTTE casualties.
According to Sri Lankan defence ministry 371 LTTE fighters have been killed in battle since December 1, at a rate of 15 fighters a day, whilst only a tiny handful of government troops were reported killed in battle in the same period.
Commenting on the current situation, Indian military analyst and former IPKF intellgence head R. Hariharan said: "They have nibbled into LTTE territory. But persisting along the failed axis will not yield results."
Speaking to Sunday Leader newspaper Hariharan stated that the Vanni is a difficult terrain for the Sri Lankan army and LTTE would be able to retaliate easily against any attack.
"They (Tigers) always bounce back in the Vanni which is a difficult terrain due to trees that grow up to 60 ft. This makes air support difficult and operations, time consuming.”
According to Hariharan, the LTTE will hold out without difficulty unless the SLA launches a huge offensive.
Echoing other analysts’ opinion that the daily offensives by the SLA is to keep the LTTE forces from building up for a major offensive against the Sri Lankan military, Hariharan said: “the Sri Lankan army is lulling the LTTE into a routine of skirmishes almost daily and [would] break in suddenly without giving (the Tigers) time to build.”
But the battles would be bloody and long, he warned. The Tigers and the security forces maintain a three tier defence line along the FDL, and breaking through the heavily mined line from either side is not going to be an easy task.
However, the government of hard-line president Mahinda Rajapkase believes in a military solution to the ethnic conflict and has been whipping up popular support for its war and building its military capacity through intense recruitment and arms purchasing.
A survey conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) this month through interviews with 1,600 Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and Indian origin Tamils in eight of the nine provinces in November revealed that 87.3 percent of Sinhalese - the majority community - were 'satisfied' with the way the government was waging the war.
The Sri Lanka Army has recently raised a new division, the 59th Division, to bolster its strength, bringing the number of such units to thirteen. According to government media the new division has already been inducted into service are providing back up the troops in the Wanni FDLs from Mannar to Kokkuthuduvai, an area that has seen intense fighting in the past few weeks.
On Friday 14 December, the Sri Lankan parliament approved the 2008 budget which has allocated vast amounts of money for military expenditure with resounding majority.
Parliament voted 114 to 67 in favour of the budget, which has allocated 166.44 billion rupees (1.51 billion dollars), raising the country's defence spending to just under a fifth of total government expenditure.
