India warns Sri Lanka it might not win war

India warned its neighbour, Sri Lanka, that even if it wins the battle it might not win the war because the Tamils are not on their side.

The warning came from India’s National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan. Speaking to The Straits Times newspaper, Narayan said: “I know the Sri Lankan government will be unhappy (at this advice) but we are not interested in preaching to them and that is the best advice they could get. India can give this advice better than the Norwegians or any other country. These are people that we know, we understand. Do they want a situation like many countries have faced?”

 “What the Sri Lankans are not factoring in is the great deal of sullenness in the Tamil man. There are accusations of profiling even in Colombo.

“Our argument is: unless you give Tamils a feeling they have the right to their own destiny in many matters you will not succeed.”

"I think they haven't got the Tamil population on their side." he added.

Stating that Iraq was a good example, Narayanan said: “What we are telling them is, get the Tamils on your side by greater devolution of power. For them to be part of Sri Lankan state, they need the huge Tamil minority on their side.

Commenting on the progress of the war, Narayan said the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ‘have been weakened’ and have ‘met with heavier casualties than previously.’

'The (Sri Lanka Army) has made a lot of progress in the last few weeks. But even if they win the battle I am not sure they will win the war.” Narayan said.

“All signs are that they are having problems. They are also hurting because of the ban in many Western countries, so they have problems in fund collection, movement of arms.

Although Narayan felt that Sri Lanka might be unhappy with his advice, Sri Lanka reacted coolly, interpreting his comments as endorsement of the government’s war effort.

“There is nothing bad against Sri Lanka in what Narayanan has said.. It is significant that he has said   the military is winning. And, he has never said that we should talk to the LTTE. These are very positive things”

Rajapakse further added, “As for Narayanan, I understand him very well. I know his vision.”

However, analysts questioned how well Rajapakse knew Narayan’s vision, considering he had missed out the main point which he clearly summarized by saying: “Our argument is: unless you give Tamils a feeling they have the right to their own destiny in many matters you will not succeed.”

Even on the matter of negotiating with the LTTE, some analysts observe that Rajapakse may have got the wrong end of the stick.

Narayan is said to be of the view that if the Sri Lankan government is to go for peace negotiations with the LTTE , it must first be on a sound footing. Negotiations, if any, must commence after the LTTE is weakened . Today, in Narayan’s own analysis the LTTE is weak.

According to Sri Lankan media Narayanan's comment could be the forerunner of an Indian intervention.

Reinforcing media speculation of an Indian intervention, an online media reported, India, through its high Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Alok Prasad, has requested Sri Lanka to initiate negotiations as per an agreement reached between Indian premier Dr. Manmohan Singh and President Rajapakse during the SAARC summit.

However, some analysts are of the opinion that Narayan’s comments are aimed at soothing TamilNadu leaders. At a time, when anti-Sri Lankan sentiments are running high due regular killings of TamilNadu fishermen by Sri Lankan navy, a poll conducted by an influential magazine earlier this month showed that there is strong support for the LTTE and the Eelam cause in the south Indian state.

The Congress led central government is concerned with the developments. It is keen to show TamilNadu that it shares the concerns of the people of the state on the wellbeing of Tamils in Sri Lanka. Narayan’s comments are seen in this context by these analysts.

As if to validate this argument, Narayanan on Monday August 25 met the Chief Minister of TamilNadu Muthuvel Karunannidhi and assured that there will be no firing by the Sri Lankan Navy on Indian fishermen.

Speaking to journalists, after the meeting Narayan said: “In the event of arrest of the fishermen, they would be released in the ‘shortest possible time.’ They would be given ‘humanitarian treatment as far as possible,’ and there would be no ‘maltreatment” of the Indian fishermen’.”

A personal visit by Narayan to TamilNadu to provide an assurance on behalf of Sri Lanka is seen as an indication of the close ties between the governments of India and Sri Lanka.

Unfotunately for Narayan, at least eight Indian fishermen with five boats were reported missing Sunday (August 24) after alleged attacks by the Sri Lankan Navy.

K. Vishwanathan, a 48-year-old fisherman, said a flotilla of over 450 Indian fishing vessels was attacked by the island’s defence personnel who confiscated their catch, disrobed the fishermen and assaulted them.