In the first reading of the tea leaves, we can recall the famous line from the White House-- all options are on the table. However, the options have different meanings to different countries around the world.
To Europeans, Russia is already asserting its power and no one in Europe, even in Britain, is in the mood to go back to the conflicts, cold wars or chilly atmospheres of two decades ago. Russia remains the darling of fund managers, investment houses and producers of all goods; from machinery and old economy gear to luxury goods, chocolate and champagne. Flows of energy are not a concern to Europeans for the fact that they consider themselves to be the biggest customer of a supplier proven to be reliable. Europeans vividly remember American opposition to the U.S.S.R. Trans-European gas pipeline in 1970s, all skewed with some sort of ideological abrasion. Had they listened to that selfish and short-sighted logic, Europe would now have been an environmental wasteland, polluted beyond recovery.
In a recent Merrill Lynch poll of 200 emerging markets fund managers who control more than $600 billion, Russia was the top favorite, far ahead of more fashionable investments in Thailand, Turkey and Brazil. Alas fighting in Georgia was in progress and America's tough words against Russia were broadcast with the rest of its confused message. Money managers mused over the words of President Bush and his description of Georgia as a democracy (even as he implied Russia was not one) as they raved at the 41% increase in Russian car sales figures( Russia is now the biggest consumer of cars in Europe, ahead of Germany.) This exemplifies the great divide of the European perspective from their American friends and the Yankee-made tangle and web of hollow and skewed freedom stories. Are jobs and economic security less important?
This split was also evident at the last NATO summit in Bucharest a few months ago. The U.S. proposed that Georgia and Ukraine become members, but Europeans partners pointedly avoided an unnecessary ruckus with Russia and came back with a polite, lukewarm "definite maybe" postponement of the matter.
Simply put, the Europeans -- united with one foreign policy and a combined GDP greater than that of the U.S. -- are not in a mood to put up another Berlin Wall or Iron Curtain made of imported suspicions against Russia. The last was European, but this one is an American argument and Europe is best served by stepping aside. This generation of Europeans consider Russians distant, unfamiliar cousins and Russia as a land of opportunity. As such, they search for commonalities and a spirit of live and let live -- entente cordiale. No one wants to make enemies or engage in an unnecessary clash born of an imaginary picture as depicted by American politicians: some sort of dark or "evil," anti-freedom and anti-democratic force.
Concurrently, Americans are taking the Georgian issue to an unnecessary level. It either a lazy fallback to old methods instead of an effort to look reality in the eye, or alternatively it is fodder for elections in U.S.A. where retail mileage can be drawn from replicating the cold war. It can serve Senator McCain and his militarist background as an heir to President Bush and it serves the current occupants of the White House to divert genuine attention from hard economic realities, massive budget deficits, private debt and the mortgage fiasco at home. And it is not a surprise to know that Mr. Randy Scheunemann (of the lobbying firm Orion Strategies in Washington) is both the chief foreign policy advisor to Senator McCain and, according to filings of the U.S. Department of Commerce, a registered lobbyist for the government of Georgia. But the recent push for freedom fries in the Caucasus turned out to be a modern day version of the failed Bay of Pigs rescue with Georgians waiting for Americans to parachute in and rescue the lot. Alas Secretary Rice went to Tbilisi to push the Georgians to accept the cease fire that was an EU initiative (mediated by France as its the present rotating president).
President Bush has chosen abrasive bully tactics in the 21st century to lecture Russia about what is good for her. Summits and discussions at a table are cast aside in some sort of muscle flexing which fabricates a new dividing line and polarizes Russia against Bush's version of the "free world". Russia has seen the deck stacked against it: The planned missile defense system in Poland and in the Czech Republic is a manifest affirmation of America's reassessment of its policy towards Russia and a relapse to pre-1990 years. Talk about stripping Russia's seat from the G-8 also plays to the tune of Senator McCain's pet project of kicking Russia out of the group of industrial economies.
What is clear is that neither Russia or China are going to fall into this trap laid by President Bush. They consider the false choice of "responsible nations" and "free" nations to be contradictory for a country that has long preferred friendships with dictators outside Europe. Russia has long contemplated a payback for the breakup of Yugoslavia, subsequent support for an independent Kosovo, the missile shield system in Poland and the Czech Republic and pesky setups in Georgia and Ukraine. America's opposition to letting the International Monetary Fund help Russia during her financial problems in the early 1990s and the go-it-alone Afghanistan episode of NATO's fight against global terrorism, which excluded Russia, all confirmed Russia's suspicions.
America has been busy with old-fashioned territory grabs and the eastward crawl of NATO towards Ukraine and Georgia, aiming for relatively modest oil reserves in the Caspian region. However, Russia has been nursing a modern global strategy that leaps over borders. Russia has cut landmark deals with former and potential American clients: weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Venezuela are the first of their kind. Sales of gas via a new trans-Siberia gas pipeline to northern China and talks of a "gas OPEC" with Iran, Algeria and others is another that towers over the pseudo-democratic ideas of Georgia. Border demarcation of the North Pole (with purported reserves of more than 90 billion barrels of oil-- twelve times the amount in the Caspian region), nuclear power deals with India and Iran and direct under-sea gas pipelines to Germany, Turkey and south-eastern Europe (bypassing the Ukrainian chokehold on Russian gas lines to Europe) are other moves on the multi-dimensional chess board -- all as Russia is simply keeping cool and amusing itself with the much hyped, but failed mission of Tony Blair as the chief negotiator of the Middle East Quartet, of which Russia is a member. From the Russian perspective, all options are on the table!
