Sri Lankan Army Commander, Lieutenant General Sarath Fonseka claimed that '80 percent of the fighting ability' of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has been 'eliminated' and troops would soon re-open a main supply route between Colombo and northern Jaffna peninsula.

 

According to the Fonseka the military had killed thirteen thousand LTTE fighters in the past two-and-a-half years.

 

"Over 80 per cent of the war against the LTTE has been completed after regaining 80 per cent of the areas under them and killing over 13,000 of their cadres,"

 

Addressing the troops attached to the Gajaba Regiment at the regimental headquarters at Saliyapura in the north-central Anuradhapura district on Monday, November 3, Fonseka said that the advancing troops were now just seven kilometers away from the Kilaly lagoon, which links the northern Jaffna peninsula to the Wanni mainland along the western coast.

 

'On reaching the Jaffna's Kilaly lagoon, the entire western part of Kilinochchi district would be sans terrorists, enabling the troops to re-open a main supply route to Jaffna shortly,' army chief told troopers.

 

'As the troops are now closing in on the Kilaly lagoon, depriving the terrorists of their western Pooneryn bastion, the troops have so far managed to eliminate 80 percent of the LTTE fighting ability after suppressing them. Thus the western sector of the A-9 highway would remain completely clear,' he added.

 

The army website reported Fonseka as further saying the 'capture of Mullaitheevu simultaneously mobilising many more battalions under four divisions would form a 50 km-long frontage to the east of the A-9 road, providing full security to the area afterwards'.

 

After capturing LTTE administered territory in western Vanni, for the past couple of months Sri Lankan forces have been trying to capturing LTTE’s administrative capital of Kilinochchi and Pooneryn which will open a land route to Jaffna.

The targeted killing last Friday of Mr. S. P. Tamilselvan, the LTTE's Chief Negotiator and the head of its Political Wing, along with five other LTTE officials, by the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) shocked the Tamil community. Across Diaspora centres and in the homeland, there is palpable grief and anger. The specificities of the attack - whether the SLAF knew Mr. Tamilselvan was at the location, for example - are irrelevant: the military has been trying repeatedly to kill him for years, frequently bombing his offices, residences and convoys. The assassination is a quintessential reflection of the Sinhala mindset. President Mahinda Rakapakse, along with the vast majority of Sinhalese, see the island's ethnic problem purely as a Tamil terrorist challenge. For all the lip-service (and there's not much of that about now) about power sharing, the south is single-mindedly focused on a military victory. The abandon with which the military has for two years blasted Tamil villages, driven hundreds of thousands of Tamils from their homes and continues to abduct, torture and murder Tamils is underwritten by the confidence the international community, despite its distaste, is nonetheless solidly behind Colombo’s war.

 

Both the Sinhalese and the international community have their legitimating theories. For the Sinhalese, once the LTTE is destroyed, the Tamils will docilely accept whatever limited (and decidedly undeserved) powers they are given. The leading members of the international community in Sri Lanka agree. But they also believe that once the LTTE is destroyed, the island can be 'developed' whereupon Sinhalese, Tamils and, for that matter, the Muslims, will come to see each other as fellow Sri Lankans and live happily ever after. Despite the decades of Sinhala oppression the Tamils have faced by successive governments since independence (i.e. three decades before Tamil militancy was triggered), the international community bases its strategy today off a utopian vision of an ethnic harmony to come. It is not that such a vision is impossible that is staggering but, rather, the belief it can be realized by enabling a violent Sinhala conquest of the Tamils followed by economic development.

 

The various reactions to the Sri Lankan military's assassination of Mr. Tamilselvan should serve as food for thought for anyone out there who still believes either that peace talks might end the bloodshed or, even more naively, that the international community will act to protect the Tamils against the rampages of the state. As President Rajapakse crowed in Parliament this week, he has secured the assistance of the international community to defeat the Tigers. As we have argued before, for all the noise about human rights (and much of that has dissipated now), the state actually wants for nothing. Ironically, the more the international community is convinced the LTTE can be defeated, the freer the hand the Sinhala state will have.

 

Let there be no mistake; irrespective of the extent of the casualties or suffering the Sinhala military inflicts on Tamil civilians, the international community will not restrain the state. Not, that is, until the military is checked on the battlefield by the LTTE's counter-violence. At that point, as in 2001, international peaceniks will rush back to help Tamils and Sinhalese solve 'their' problem. The insistence by some international actors, especially those who proudly proclaim their support and assistance for the Sinhala state, that 'there is no military solution' is duplicitous.

The solution must be political, we all know that. But it can be rammed down the Tamils' throats on the end of bayonet. Which is why several members of the international community advocating 'peace' in Sri Lanka have also banned the LTTE.

 

When Sinhalese unite

 

Last week Sinhalese reveled in Mr. Tamilselvan's assassination. Traditional drums were played in the street. Parties were organized at home. Some Buddhist temples held all night celebrations. For any Sinhalese who genuinely desires a negotiated solution, the killing of the other side's top diplomat should have been deeply worrying and regrettable. But very few in the south feel this way, something the Tamils need to bear in mind as they make their way in the time to come. For decades, when faced with violence and brutality by a Colombo government, many Tamils have rushed to the feet of the Sinhala opposition, voting it into power in a laughably futile effort to end their suffering, if only for a while. They have chased after the SLFP and UNP in turn, insisting, despite the evidence of their past suffering, that this time round it would be different.

 

In reality, for the Tamils, there is nothing to choose between the main Sinhala parties. This is because all of them are beholden to the sentiments of the majority of Sinhalese voters who, as is now starkly clear, bitterly oppose sharing of any power with the Tamils. The point was underscored this week by the reaction of the UNP - still the darlings, incidentally, of the 'peace through development' international community - to Mr. Tamilselvan's assassination. Firstly, the UNP hailed the killing as a 'great victory' for the (Sinhala) Air Force. It then went on to tacitly back Rajapakse's brutal war, saying there is 'no point' negotiating with the LTTE. Let us be clear; whenever the LTTE negotiates with the state, it is about the rights, powers and extent of self-rule that we, the Tamil people, are to have. The UNP, drunk with the same confidence in Sinhala military victory that the SLFP regime is, believes, like the government, that there is no point in negotiating with an enemy who is about to be defeated. The optimism may be misplaced, but the UNP sees no reason to hide it.

 

This week Tamils in the homeland and abroad have mourned Mr. Tamilselvan and his colleagues killed last Friday. We join them. Both Mr. Tamilselvan and Lt. Colonel Anpumani (Alex), who was also killed in Friday's airstrike, were friends of this newspaper. From the outset of the Norwegian peace process, concerned that the Tamil people be kept informed of developments, they, along with the LTTE's then Chief Negotiator, Mr. Anton Balasingham, went out of their way to ensure we were briefed on the peace process. We will miss them.

 

A time to struggle

 

Despite its bans on the LTTE, as the international community has openly acknowledged, every time the Tigers sit across the table from the Sinhala state, the interests they are negotiating for are those of the Tamil people. Whether it is a political solution - remember the fuss about the LTTE giving up independence for federalism? (Now the movement is thought to be weak, no one wants to use that word now) - or an interim administration or international aid for the Northeast, the Tigers were accepted by the state and the international community to be negotiating on behalf of the Tamils. Yet there is thundering silence after the Sinhala state assassinated the Tamils' chief negotiator. The international community has thus made it clear that any rights the Tamils secure depend entirely on the outcome on the battlefield. We therefore have to brace ourselves for an even more brutal military onslaught in the time to come. We must therefore be united in our resolve. Despite our skepticism, Tamil efforts to argue our case abroad, to win hearts and minds, must continue. But not in naïve optimism. If the state fails to defeat the LTTE then it will be compelled to negotiate with the Tamils. If it wins, we are lost. But, then, it was ever thus.

The only known successful ‘military’ solution to such problems in world history is to be found in the US, namely the genocide of the native Red Indians.

 

Most civilised nations would balk at such an approach, but short of that, a purely military solution to problems of ethnic minorities will and have always failed.

 

It is, therefore, a little surprising that many have begun to write the epitaph of LTTE and the cause of Tamil Eelam.

 

It must be clearly understood that the LTTE or V Pirapakaran are not the reason for the turmoil in Sri Lanka, but products of an ideology and circumstances.

 

As long as the cause and the conditions that caused the Tamil revolt exist, peace will be elusive, notwithstanding the claims of an imminent military victory.

 

As someone associated with the Sri Lankan conflict since 1988, I am dismayed at the repeated mistakes on part of all the principal actors in this sordid, blood soaked drama.

 

On its part the LTTE is being obdurate in sticking to the demand of ‘independence’ that can never become a reality since India does not support it.

 

On the Sri Lankan government’s part, the notion of national unity and integrity is equated with ‘unitary’ form of government, and a federal structure is considered an anathema. This has further legitimised the hard line position of the LTTE.

 

And finally India, a country that has a major stake in peace in Sri Lanka, has been shy of forcing the Lankan government to move in direction of federalism and autonomy for Tamil areas. Thus in this tragedy, there are only villains and no heroes.

 

The Background:

The Tamil-Sinhala rivalry is 'mother of old conflicts'.

 

The two sides trace their animosities to the battle between Tamil King Ellara (after whom Eelam is named) and the Sinhalese King Duttagamini in 167 (or 145) BC!

 

Obviously it was not a continuous conflict, and there were many periods of peace.

 

But it must be understood that in the perception of ordinary Tamils and Sinhalas, the conflict is very old.

 

Since the Buddhist revival of 1956-1957, Sri Lanka has become a 'Buddhist' State, much on the lines of many Islamic states.

 

But even worse, the law of the land denies equal opportunities to non-Sinhala citizens.

 

Many, specially Indian commentators, have flippantly 'advised' Tamils to accept Sri Lankan unity without realising that Sri Lanka is not a secular State like India, or is it a 'fair State' like the UK in terms of rule of law.

 

Thus there is a fundamental problem in the nature of the Sri Lankan State at the root of this conflict.

 

Sri Lanka is a plural society and multi-ethnic country.

 

Like other developing countries, including India, the process of economic development and nation building have often led to clashes between various groups.

 

In the late 19th century, conflicts took place mainly between the Buddhists, Catholics and Muslims.

 

The most serious riots against the Catholics took place in 1883 and 1903. Major anti-Muslim riots took place in 1915. But since 1958, the focus of Sinhala violence has shifted to the Tamils. Major anti-Tamil riots took place in 1958, 1977 and 1981-83.

 

This antagonism has led to a feeling of insecurity amongst the Tamils and the movement for Tamil Eelam or homeland was born out of this cauldron of hate.

 

The people of Tamil Nadu have historical and blood relations with the Tamils of Sri Lanka.

 

They will not remain inactive and watch the genocidal tactics of the Sri Lanka army against their brethren.

 

The rise of Dravidian parties has ensured a competitive backing for the rights of the Sri Lanka Tamils.

 

The late Tamil Nadu chief minister M G Ramachandran went a step further and linked survival of Sri Lanka Tamils with Indian nationalism.

 

Having studied insurgencies over last two decades, it is easy to predict that that the LTTE will revert to the classic first or second phase of Guerrilla War, that is, melt into jungles and populated areas and indulge in small unit hit and run actions.

 

Given the difficult terrain in jungles of Sri Lanka, the LTTE can continue this struggle indefinitely.

 

In addition, it may restart its terror attacks in capital Colombo and eliminate the Sri Lankan political and military leaders.

 

The LTTE is certainly down (as in 1988 when Indians had it down on its knees) but not out.

 

But must Sri Lanka, a beautiful country with friendly people, continue to bleed?

 

No. There is a solution, though it might sound simplistic.

 

Tamil Eelam is no solution.

 

The new State cannot be in peace with Sri Lanka as the Eastern province claimed by the LTTE has a mixed population; the boundary is not well defined and is 600 km long.

 

Perpetual bloodshed is predetermined in case of that outcome.

 

On the other hand, most Sri Lankan Tamils would be quite satisfied with an Indian type of federal structure.

 

The first step in the direction has to be taken by the Sinhalese by recognising that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic State and not a Buddhist one.

 

The Sinhalese have to give up their insistence on a unitary State and accept federalism, perhaps even a Kashmir-like arrangement, where Article 370 ensures that the Kashmiri identity is preserved.

 

A three-language formula could solve the language issue.

 

Sri Lanka also needs to ensure equality before law for all citizens and no Sinhala bias.

 

There should be open negotiations and a ceasefire. India could guarantee this accord.

 

Before an ideological dispute can be solved it needs to be converted into a tangible dispute over territory or rights.

 

The Middle East process only got off the ground once the Palestinians recognised Israel's right to exist and Israel in turn accepted the demand for a Palestinian state.

 

Once the ideological hurdle is crossed there can be give and take over territory.

 

Till such time this happens, there is very little chance of peace.

 

The world and major powers like the US and Japan have to convince or coerce the Sri Lankans into abandoning the path of military solution.

 

India has to act and realize that between inaction and military intervention, there are many intermediate tools available to it.

 

In dealing with insurgencies, Sri Lanka seems to be following the Pakistani model, where they have been using air power, tanks and heavy weapons which cause immense collateral damage.

 

We have been battling insurgencies for 60 years, but have never resorted to genocidal tactics.

 

Given the close links and relation between the peoples of the countries, India must intervene as a regional power, which could take shape in the enforcing a no-fly zone and similar restrictions.

 

India as a power cannot escape this moral responsibility and must use its clout to enforce peace.

 

Colonel (retd) Dr Anil Athale is a Chhatrapati Shivaji Chair Fellow of the United Services Institute and co-ordinator of INPAD, a Pune based think-tank. He is also the author of ‘Nuclear Menace: the Satyagraha Approach’ (Pub 1997). 

The all-party meeting chaired by Tamil Nadu's (TN) Chief Minister M Karunanidhi on October 14 passed a resolution that MPs from the state would resign if the Centre failed to ensure a ceasefire in Sri Lanka (SL) in two weeks. Since current Indian perception of the ethnic conflict has been clouded by Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, it is instructive to review India's past involvement in Sri Lanka and future options.

 

The goal of India's SL policy since the 1950s was to prevent any hostile power getting a foothold in the neighbourhood. So, over the years, India pursued various policies - some of them at the expense of Sri Lankan Tamil interests - to placate the Sinhalese leadership. Even India's support to Tamil militant groups in the 1980s angered the Sinh-alese leadership. India's current policy towards the ethnic conflict is influenced by the fear that an independent Tamil Eelam will rekindle secessionist tendencies in TN. How-ever, this view is incorrect.

 

India's policy since 1991 has sought the military defeat of the LTTE for the latter's role in Rajiv Gandhi's assassination and the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) debacle. From the beginning, however, India's SL policy failed to appreciate the historical roots of the ethnic conflict, which can be traced back to the wars between the Tamil and Sinhala kingdoms during the past several centuries. The LTTE's conduct also has its share of problems. It has put an entire generation of Tamils through immense hardship. This bitter history makes rapprochement between the Sinhalese and Tamils almost impossible. Given these ground realities in Sri Lanka, what are India's options?

 

It is clear that India cannot afford to remain fixated on its past bitterness with the LTTE while crafting its response to the ethnic conflict. The current policy stagnation, besides exacerbating the difficulties of Sri Lankan Tamils, can also be detrimental to India's security. During the Cold War, there was some anxiety in India as Sri Lanka began building a closer relationship with the US. Such concerns are irrelevant now in the light of closer defence cooperation between the US and India. However, there is another potential threat to India's southern frontiers: China is already playing a major role in building ports and potential naval bases in some Indian Ocean littoral states.

 

India formally extracted concessions from SL through the 1987 peace accord - currently in tatters - that Colombo will not allow any external powers in a way detrimental to Indian interests. However, Lanka has been building parallel defence cooperation tracks with China and Pakistan and the island has been brimming with Chinese and Pakistani intelligence operatives. Yet, India has helped SL to maintain its territorial integrity. This could prove to be costly. India cannot allow this situation to persist while putting pressure on the LTTE and providing military assistance to SL. A credible case could be built that an independent Tamil Eelam will be - for ethnic, linguistic, and religious reasons - friendlier towards India than the Sinhalese dispensation in Colombo.

 

Although the LTTE is banned in some countries there is also a realisation that any solution ignoring the militant outfit will not be viable. India should review its current policy and exert pressure on SL to seek a political solution for the ethnic conflict. Some argue that India's current free trade agreement with SL will buy more influence among the Sinhalese leadership.

 

Unless India is able to lock SL in a broad bilateral security relationship, their leadership will have no qualms about allowing China or Pakistan to get a foothold. This is the real danger of India's current policy facilitating the military defeat of the LTTE. If India were to take a hard-nosed view of its interests, a subtle shift in its position on the LTTE will go a long way in safeguarding its strategic interests in the region besides securing the interests of ethnic Tamils in the island. The all-party resolution should provide the UPA an opportunity to do some introspection about its Sri Lanka policy.

 

TS Gopi Rethinaraj teaches at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. This is a modified version of an op-ed piece that appeared in the April 2008 issue of Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review

In the ongoing battle in Vanni, the LTTE's conventional defence strategy appears to be based upon a series of strong points with bunds and ditches stretching for miles between them. The bunds along the expected axes of advance have been constructed to slow down the advancing troops and attack them at selected points when they try to break through the obstacle.  

In modern conventional warfare the technique has morphed into mobile defence based upon strong points that dominate the gaps between them with hard hitting armour based mobile teams. This technique is useful when a large area is to be defended by smaller number of troops as in the case of the LTTE. This strategy if successfully applied would lead to a lot of bloodletting and discourage advancing forces from launching the main offensive.

The LTTE had perhaps adopted defences based on strong points for this very reason. It was fighting against an opponent who outnumbered it by at least ten to one. On hindsight, last year the LTTE probably allowed a comparatively free run to the security forces to occupy areas south of road Vavuniya-Mannar along the Mannar coast so that the troops would be drawn into fighting the strong points further north. After that starting with Adampan in May 20008 there had been a series of LTTE strong points - big and small - forming layers of defences –Adampan-Nedunkandal-Andankulam, Madhu-Palamipiddi-Periyamadu, and so on.  

Col. R. Hariharan, (Retired)

 

Sea Tigers, the sea faring arm of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) attacked two supply ships belonging to Sri Lanka inside high security zone, near a naval harbour in northern Jaffna peninsula, sinking one ship and heavily damaging the other.

 

Sri Lankan ships MV Nimalawa and MV Ruhunuwa which transport military and other supplies from south to Jaffna came under a predawn Black Tiger attack on Wednesday, October 22, in the seas off Kankeasnthurai harbour.

 

The Sea Tiger mission was led by Black Sea Tiger Lt. Col. Ilakkiyaa, the deputy commander of the Sea Tigers' female wing, who sacrificed her life with Black Sea Tiger Commando Lt. Col. Kuperan, LTTE officials told TamilNet.

 

The Sea Tigers also fought a sea battle with naval units defending the port of Kankesanthurai.

 

Shells launched from the seas off Vadamaraadchi during the clashes following the attack on ships, exploded near a civilian dwelling in Mallaakam seriously injuring a couple, according to the same sources.

"One of the merchant vessels -- MV Nimalawa -- is sinking and the other vessel was damaged," a defence official who declined to be named told AFP following the attack.

 

According to Sri Lankan newspaper, Sunday times, the intelligence authorities concerned with how the Sea Tigers managed to infiltrate the naval cordon to reach Kankesanthurai, a key point in the high security zone in the sea.

"The fact that they succeeded in infiltrating a high security zone in the seas, moving freely for a long distance to carry out an attack, is very worrying. It only underscores the need for further measures to make the HSZ (High Security Zone) foolproof," the paper said quoting an intelligence source.

Jaffna is controlled by government forces, but cut off from the rest of the island by LTTE-held territory and supplied entirely by sea or air.

 

The defence ministry painted the attack as "another cowardly attempt by the terrorists to deny essential supplies to the civilians living in war-affected areas."

 

However, observers pointed out Sri Lanka’s practice of using civilian cargo ships to supply arms to the 40,000 military personnel occupying Jaffna.

 

Activities of Kaangkeasanthurai harbour came to a halt on Wednesday following the early morning Sea Tiger attack, sources in Vadamaraadchi said.

 

Sri Lanka Army (SLA) and Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) jointly searched villages east and west of Kaangkeasanthurai harbour, and fishing boats in the seas off the same coastline, sources added.

 

Harbour workers were not permitted to go the harbour at the SLA entry check post at Thellippalai. Lorries that transport goods from the harbour also were not allowed access to the harbour.

A statement released by the political wing of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Ampaarai district stated that 65 Sri Lankan soldiers ,including 45 Special Task Force members, were killed and another 98 wounded in attacks carried out by LTTE in the district in past 75 days.

 

The statement released on Friday, October 24, accused the Sri Lankan government of ‘Sinhalisation’ of the district and urged Tamil and Muslim civilians in the district to join hands in supporting the liberation struggle.

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fighters continued to offer heavy resistance in the Vanni battle fronts inflicting heavy casualty to the Sri Lankan forces and stalling the advancement of troops towards Kilinochchi.

At least 161 soldiers were killed and 367 soldiers were wounded in four separate attempts by the military to breach LTTE defences in Vanni, in October alone.

 

In the latest attempt to break through LTTE defences south west of Kilinochchi, around Akkaraayankulam, more than 80 Sri Lankan Army (SLA) soldiers were killed and 200 sustained injuries, according to informed sources in Colombo.

 

Sri Lanka admitted to heavy casualties but put its losses at 33 dead and 48 injured.

 

"During these clashes on the weekend, 33 soldiers were reported killed in action, 48 injured and three others were reported missing," a statement on the ministry's website said.

The multi-pronged Sri Lankan offensive which was launched on Saturday October 18 lasted for four days.

 

A similar attempt a week earlier, on Sunday October 12, resulted in more than 60 SLA soldiers being wounded.

 

That SLA advance was thwarted after 6 hours of heavy fighting, from 10:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m., the LTTE said.

The same day, SLA soldiers attempting to enter into LTTE territory in southern Mullaiththeevu district from several points in Thannimurippu and Manalaaru with artillery and Multi-barrel Rocket Launcher fire support were also met with heavy LTTE resistance.

 

The SLA offensive was beaten back after 12 hour of fierce fighting with at least 19 SLA soldiers killed and more than 35 injured.

 

The previous week also the military suffered heavy casualties, when on Tuesday October 7, SLA attempted to advance on three fronts in southern Kilinochchi district.

 

26 SLA soldiers were killed in Akkaraayan - Murikandi sector, 16 in Vanni Vizhaangkulam and 20 in Vannearikkulam.

 

49 SLA soldiers were wounded in Akkaraayan and 23 in Vanni Vizhaangkulam. The SLA offensive units were pushed back in all three fronts.

 

Rain, resistance blamed

 

The increased resistance by LTTE, as evidenced by the high casualties suffered by SLA in recent weeks, is in sharp contrast to an earlier LTTE fallback that enabled troops to move rapidly into LTTE territory.

 

Encouraged by the limited resistance offered by the LTTE in previous months, Sri Lankan forces had banked on a quick fall of Kilinochchi, the LTTE's administrative capital, 330 kilometres north of Colombo.

 

However, the military is bogged down in the same area for the past 2 months with the LTTE digging in, army stretching to defend territory already seized, and poor weather hampering military operations.

'Troops operating in the south of Kilinochchi are making progress, though they have not shown a rapid progress within the past few days,' said defence analyst Ranil Wijayapala in the state-run Daily News.

He blamed adverse weather, with heavy rains currently lashing the north.

'With the rapid advance last month, the military is also forced to tie down a lot of soldiers to protect areas newly captured from the Tigers,' a military officer who declined to be named said.

Military sources said increased air attacks have failed to soften up Tiger defences for ground troops to smash through.

When the Sri Lankan forces reached Naachikudah in Mannaar district and Akkraayankulam in Kilinochchi district in early September, they encountered an elaborate trench line running several kilometers from Naachikudah to Akkarayankulam. Since then repeated offensives by the SLA to break through the LTTE defences have failed.

 

Casualties censored

 

Throughout this military campaign the Sri Lankan defence establishment has highly exaggerated LTTE casualties whilst down playing its own.

For the past year or so, the Sri Lankan Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickramanayake has been providing military casualty details to the Sri Lankan parliament on a monthly basis. Figures tabled in parliament so far show 1,099 soldiers were killed in the first nine months of 2008, with September seeing the highest number of fatalities -- 200 killed and 997 wounded.

Almost 7,000 soldiers were wounded in the first nine months of the year and 396 civilians were killed, according to parliamentary records.

 

However, following heavy casualties the military has suffered in recent weeks, on Friday October 24, the Sri Lankan defence ministry announced its decision to censor casualty figures coming out of the northern battle fields.

The defence ministry said that it decided to “suspend the reporting of all casualty figures in relation to the ongoing counter terrorist operation in Wanni. This is in consideration of the continuing advance of the security forces there and the need for operational security, whereby such reportage may impede the successful accomplishment of the mission.”

 

While the Tigers have not been issuing battle-specific casualty details of their side on a daily basis, they were maintaining reliable periodic updates of their casualties through their Secretariat for War Heroes, which issues periodic updates.

 

In the contrary, the Sri Lankan government officials were providing conflicting reports of both daily and monthly updates, which has come under criticism by the media and the opposition parties.

Meanwhile, informed military sources in Colombo said that the sections of the military viewed the practice as counter-productive since the soldiers in the battlefied have been discouraged by the political censorship on their sacrifices.

The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare. Under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflicted severe casualties on the Nazi Army. Many of those Nazi soldiers whom the Soviet Army could not kill were killed by "Gen.Winter". The entire Sixth Army of the Nazis was trapped by the Soviet troops with the help of "Gen.Winter" and destroyed.

As the battle began on July 17, 1942, the Nazi Disinformation machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fall of Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of the fall. "Within two days", they were told. Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months. The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the Second World War.

Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi, the current headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)? It is difficult to say on the basis of the scanty information available from the battle front. From even this scanty information, two things are clear: Firstly, the Sri Lankan Army, which senses victory against the LTTE, has been doing well, but not as well as it claims to be. Secondly, the LTTE has been doing badly, but not as badly as projected to be by the disinformation machine of the Sri Lankan Army . The LTTE has shown that there is still a lot of fight left in it-- and a lot of intelligence and innovative thinking.

But intelligence and innovative thinking alone cannot win wars without resources and the wherewithal. The LTTE is deficient on both counts. But it has shown itself to be as resilient as the Taliban in Afghanistan and as fiercely-motivated. In 2003, the Americans thought and claimed that they had finished the Taliban once and for all. Their facile assumptions proved to be wrong. The Taliban came back--as if it has risen from its much-proclaimed grave-- and has been moving forward relentlessly. Neither air strikes by the most powerful Air Force in the world nor heavy artillery strikes by the most powerful Army in the world have been able to stop its advance. Reluctantly, senior NATO military commanders in Afghanistasn have started admitting that the war against the Taliban is unwinnable and that one has to search for a political solution with neither victory nor defeat for either side. It has not only become unwinnable unless the Taliban commits some serious tactical mistakes, but is also likely to become increasingly unaffordable thanks to the financial and economic melt-down in the US and the rest of the world.

The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more months, a prolonged war against the LTTE could become as unwinnable and as unaffordable for the rulers of Sri Lanka as a prolonged war against the Taliban for the NATO powers. The rulers of Sri Lanka are living in a fool's paradise if they think that China and Pakistan would come to their rescue if the government of India stops assisting them under pressure from public opinion in Tamil Nadu. The Pakistani economy is on the verge of a collapse. Even the Chinese were reluctant to help out their time-tested friend as they call Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari found to his dismay when he visited China recently. The Pakistan Army is reeling under one set-back after another inflicted on it by the Taliban.To think that the Pakistan Army would rush to Sri Lanka to spite India would be the height of stupidity.

The Chinese, who are increasingly worried over the impact of the recession in the US on their manufacturing industries, which are heavily dependent on the US market, are hugging tight their foreign exchange holdings. They were reluctant to make any definitive commitment of help to Zardari. They are even showing a decline of interest in further developing the Gwadar port project. In a world beset with the most serious economic crisis it has known since the Great Depression of the 1930s, everybody, including China, is interested in saving every dollar and cent he can. Nobody wants a foreign adventure, which might drain off their depleting resources. If the Sri Lankan Army thinks that China would try to rush in if India stops helping, it is in for a disappointment.

The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more weeks, "Gen.Monsoon" and "Gen.Recession" could put an end to the pipedreams of the Sri Lankan Army of a definitive victory over the LTTE.

Will its calculations prove right or will they be belied? Whatever happens, one thing seems likely-- there is going to be no definitive victory or no definitive defeat for either side in the on-going war.

 

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

More than 600 Australian Tamils protested in front of the National Press Club in Canberra on October 14 while the Foreign Minister of Sri Lanka, Rohitha Bogollagama, was addressing an invited audience inside the National Press Club.

 

The protesters highlighted Sri Lanka's escalating human rights violations against the media workers.

 

"A Sri Lankan government representative is addressing Australian journalists while the Sri Lankan government has banned journalists from visiting areas where there are more than 200,000 Internally displaced, and where Colombo's embargo on essential food is driving the IDPs towards a humanitarian crisis," protesters said of the press club event.

 

"Without press freedom, the truth and ground realities about the suffering of the Tamil people is not getting out to the international community," a protester said.

 

Mark Dodd of the Australian newspaper asked how a country that has questionable track record of human rights violations could ask the Australian government to ban the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

 

Catherine McGrath from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) commented on the poor rating of Sri Lanka by various media rights groups.

 

She asked whether the government of Sri Lanka was going to allow journalists to enter LTTE controlled areas; to comment on the killing of journalists where the government had been accused; and to comment on Sri Lanka opposition party leader's recent accusation of the government in relation to Mr Janaka Perera's assassination.

 

Mr Bogollagama while denying allegations against the Sri Lanka government on Rights violations and physical violence against journalists, stated that press would be allowed to visit banned areas once the areas are brought under government control.

 

Michael Cavanagh from ABC Radio Australia stated that even the Irish Republican Army did not lay down arms before negotiating with the British government.

 

He highlighted that since Sri Lanka’s withdrawal from the cease-fire, monitoring missions, international aid agencies and the United Nations have now left LTTE held areas, asking what that meant for the Sri Lankan government’s credibility and how the world was to be independently informed of ground realities.

 

After meeting with Mr Bogollagama on Monday 13 October 2008, the Australian Foreign Minister, Mr Steven Smith, immediately issued a press statement stating that, "Australia's view remains that Sri Lanka's conflict cannot be resolved through military means alone. All parties to the conflict must work towards a political solution that meets the legitimate aspirations of all Sri Lankans," he added.

 

Sri Lanka has recently intensified its military operations in an attempt to regain territory held by the LTTE.

 

Media personnel are prohibited from visiting LTTE held areas or the frontlines, and rely on press releases by the defence department.

 

In June this year, the country's Defence Ministry labelled journalists critical of the government “enemies of the state", warning it would take "all necessary measures to stop this journalistic treachery against the country".

 

Media rights groups expressed statements of shock and declared the statement gave "indirect support and justification for all the recent violence against the press."

 

Over 20 journalists have been murdered in Sri Lanka, and several more injured in attacks which media rights groups have often blamed on Sri Lankan armed Forces.

The Tamil Youth Organization (TYO) of Bergen, Norway, launched an exhibition titled "No Home – Just Hope" displaying photos depicting the plight of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Vanni, Sri Lanka.

 

The exhibition was launched at the Hanseatisk Museum in Bergen town, on Friday October 17, inaugurated by Eileen, Kolsås Dalen, culture consultant in Bergen Municipality.

 

Friday was chosen for the launch as it marks the day the United Nations was founded.

 

A video film of the Vanni IDPs protesting against the expelling of UN humanitarian workers from the Vanni by the Sri Lanka government, and their picketing of the officials, was also shown at the inauguration of the exhibition.

 

The exhibition will continue until 20 December.

 

The inauguration event drew large number of persons from the various communities living in Bergen, organizers said.

More than two thousand diaspora Tamils in Southern Italy marched from Piazza Politama to the Palermo office of the Internal Affairs Ministry on October 23 to hand over an appeal urging awareness of the plight of the Eelam Tamils in Vanni and elsewhere in the island of Sri Lanka.

 

The demonstrators who gathered at Piazza Politama marched towards the ministry office via Kavuru shouting slogans against the Sri Lanka and its president Mahinda Rajapkasa.

 

They also carried a picture depicting Mahinda Rajapaksa as a killer of innocent Tamil civilians who were subjected to economic blockade, refusal of humanitarian supplies, subjected to extra-judicial abductions, extortion, killings and targeted military attacks such as aerial bombardment, artillery barrage and explosions triggered by covert attacks by the Deep Penetration Unit of the Sri Lanka Army.

 

Sri Lanka defiantly refused to allow a European Union (EU) investigation into rights abuses callit an "infringement of Sri Lanka's sovereignty, self respect and dignity', and announced plans to support the garment industry financially if existing trade concessions are not renewed by EU.

The EU recently warned it may not renew the GSP Plus (Generalised System of Preferences) trade scheme after it expires in December because of continuing human rights abuses stemming from Sri Lanka's civil war.

 

The EU had asked to send an investigating team to ensure Sri Lanka was complying with human rights standards.

 

"What the cabinet has decided is not to agree with investigations that are required by the EU to renew GSP Plus," Minister of Export Development and International Trade G.L. Peiris told reporters at a press conference held on Monday, October 20, at the Central Bank to brief the media on the GSP Plus Scheme.

 

According to the minister, the Government will not betray Sri Lanka's sovereignty to obtain economic benefits from other countries.

 

"The Cabinet has decided to reject the investigation and we have instructed our Ambassador in Brussels to inform relevant authorities on our decision. We are ready for open discussions with the Commission regarding the issue,"

 

Many in the island's garment and textile industry, which employs hundreds of thousands of mostly rural poor, fear a downturn if the special trade terms are axed.

 

However Peiris said the effect would be limited.

 

"We only get $150 million from GSP Plus. We are not ready to betray our country through this investigating," Pieris said.

 

"We should not betray our dignity and respect for US$ 150 million. We have to develop our strength and resources. In every sense we have capabilities to fulfil our task.”

At the same press conference, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka announced the government would provide a subsidy to offset any shock the loss of the concession may cause in an industry that in 2007 was its top foreign exchange source.

 

"The government has decided to provide a subsidy equal to the total GSP Plus concession of $150 million to the garment industry," Cabraal told reporters.

 

GSP Plus benefits

 

GSP Plus is an EU trade concession that has helped Sri Lanka's garment industry, its top foreign exchange earner last year, to boost export revenue since mid-2005.

 

The trade scheme helped Sri Lanka net a record $2.9 billion from EU markets last year, 37.5 percent of total export income.

 

Garments last year were the country's top source of foreign exchange followed by remittances of $2.5 billion and tea export earnings, which brought in $1 billion.

 

In 2007, Sri Lanka exported US$ 2.8 billion worth of products to the EU.

Around US$ 1.4 billion of this was apparels, of which the majority was exported under the GSP. In other words, apparels sector is the biggest beneficiary of the GSP, though other sectors like fisheries and industrial products also use the facility. Assuming that the tax concession granted was around 10% across the board - the EU has said it’s between eight and 18 per cent - the benefit accrued by the apparel industry is roughly around US$ 150 million. The amount Sri Lanka is willing to offer as a relief measure if GSP Plus is lost.

 

Human Rights

 

The proposed EU probe is widely seen by political analysts as a tool to get the government to address alleged human rights abuses and lack of humanitarian help for thousands of civilians stranded in northern Sri Lanka where Tamil rebels are fighting to save their last strongholds.

In July, the EU said Sri Lanka's failure to address human rights concerns, including a "frightening" number of abductions, could cost it the lucrative concession.

 

Rights groups have reported hundreds of abductions, disappearances and killings blamed on government security forces and Tamil Tiger rebels since a ceasefire in the 25-year-old civil war evaporated in 2006.

 

The U.S., Britain, Germany and many western nations have raised concerns over a major humanitarian crisis in the northern Vanni region where the military says it is close to capturing the town of Kilinochchi, the last bastion of the Tamil Tigers.

The situation worsened last month when all international humanitarian agencies were ordered to leave the area. Only government supplies through local level officials are going through for thousands of people who have been displaced.

“We are following closely Sri Lanka’s compliance with all relevant international conventions, including the UN human rights conventions. The Commission pays very close attention to the proper application of the GSP system and, therefore, whenever the Commission receives information about non-compliance with the GSP Plus eligibility criteria it takes this very seriously.” an EU official told BBC recently.

“According to the GSP Regulation, if information received by the Commission points to possible non compliance with the GSP Plus criteria and gives sufficient ground for an investigation, the Commission shall initiate such an investigation and publish a notice announcing it. The Commission notifies the beneficiary country concerned.”

“If the country concerned does not cooperate, the Commission still has to continue the investigation and make the findings on the basis of the facts available. During the investigation the Commission invites all interested parties to make their views known in writing and provides the country under investigation with every opportunity to cooperate in the investigation.”

“The new GSP Regulation 2009-2011 envisages that a country under a GSP Plus investigation continues to benefit from the GSP Plus prefrences until the date of conclusion of such investigation. The final decision on the eligibility of a country under investigation for the GSP Plus 2009-2011 is suspended until the end of the investigation.”

 

EU response

 

Neil Kearney, general secretary of the Brussels-based International Textiles Garments and Leather Workers' Federation (ITGLWF), while visiting Colombo last month, told IPS that the EU position over a new agreement over GSP Plus is subject to rules and regulations governing human rights and worker rights.

 

"The EU will want to assess how far Sri Lanka has progressed in this field," he said.

He further added it was unfortunate that 'statements' (at that time) by some Sri Lankan ministers, that the country would not accept a EU mission to study these aspects, and that Sri Lanka prefers to lose the concessions rather than allow such a mission, complicated matters.

"I find this extremely shortsighted as a halt to these concessions would affect thousands of workers and their dependants. Workers in the transport, logistics and support services in the industry will be affected," Kearney said.

SL definace

 

However, Sri Lanka has taken a hostile attitude towards the EU in relation to GSP Plus, even though it is the beneficiary of the trade concessions.

 

Last month, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama told Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations, in New York that an EU investigation is “unnecessary and inappropriate”.

 

He insisted that government’s response to any proposed EU action on extending GSP Plus will take into consideration “the country’s national priorities and interests which are protection of the territorial integrity and fight against separatism, eradication of terrorism, restoring democracy and empowering the people”.

 

Earlier this month, Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to Brussels Ravinatha Ariyasinghe lashed out at Member of the European Parliament Robert Evans (from UK) after he presented a report on Sri Lanka that Ariyasinghe said was “replete with unsubstantiated allegations, deliberate distortions and blatant falsehoods.” The document had been prepared after a July visit to Sri Lanka by Evans.

This personal attack came after Benita Ferrero-Waldner released an open letter to Sri Lankan media rejecting personal attacks against the EC’s former Head of Delegation in Colombo Ambassador Julian Wilson. Ferrero-Waldner has repeatedly made strong statements about the situation in Sri Lanka, particularly with regards to humanitarian issues.

Garment industry concerned

 

Despite the bravado, the impact on Sri Lanka’s image of the GSP being withdrawn is serious - and seriously negative. Investor confidence is already low. With Europe becoming increasingly rights conscious, buyers are likely to think twice before associating themselves with a country rejected by the EU.

 

Whilst the Sri Lankan government is unconcerned, the garment industry is worried.

 

Trade unions have said the absence of EU trade concessions could impact thousands of garment workers and their families.

Anton Marcus, general secretary of the Free Trade Zones and General Services Employees' Union, said that if Sri Lanka loses the GSP Plus the impact will be on the workers and their families.

"Many factories will close down," he said.

 

Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF) officials say they are hopeful the rescue package of 150 million dollars will act as a buffer against any fallout on industries that benefit from the EU concessions.

“The government doesn’t want to compromise Sri Lanka’s sovereignty for 150 million dollars when they can perhaps subsidise the industry with a syndicated loan,” said a labour union source.

 

“Still, there’s a question of how the government will provide these benefits. Is it by waiving off the electricity cost of garment factories, or some such thing? Besides, where will the money come from?”

“Allow us to speak. We are not terrorists. What is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide”: These were the voices of the thousands of Eelam Tamil demonstrators who braved defying a government ban and gathered in Paris on October 22.

 

Reflecting on his experience, Mr Somasundaram Sarveswaran, a participant said what is abominable that goes against all norms of civilization is silencing the civilian voice.

 

"The Tamil national cause and the struggle against genocide of a people are not terrorist issues. There is a tendency today to look at everything related to Tamil as terrorism. This is why we earnestly look upon the leaders of Tamil Nadu to secure us our righteous global space as a priority, by recognizing the Tamil right to self-determination in the Island of Sri Lanka," he said.

 

Mr. Sarveswaran made all his way, 400 km from Lyon to Paris, with his wife and two children to take part in the demonstration, without knowing that the French Police had declined permission to the demonstration.

 

France, which has nearly 100,000 Tamils who respect the country's law, was silent against the killings of Eelam Tamils in their homeland, he charged.

 

The French government was ignoring the investigation of 17 Tamil speaking humanitarian workers of the French NGO Action Contre La Faim (ACF), who were allegedly massacred by the Sri Lankan forces in Muthur in Trincomalee, he said.

 

A parade was supposed to go on from Place de la Republic to Place de la Bastille Sunday the 19th of October from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

 

This was organized by a member of the French political party Nouveau Centre in which several Tamils are active members.

 

But in the last minute the French Police refused permission for the parade, without citing reasons for the refusal.

 

The participants were waiting for this day to speak out to the French government, which holds the current Presidency of the European Union, about the ongoing genocide in Sri Lanka against the Tamil people: aerial bombings, artillery attacks against the civilians and widespread human rights abuses against Tamils all over the island of Sri Lanka.

 

The refusal turned into deep frustration and anger that demonstrators decided to get to the streets, against being treated as 'terrorists' and demanded for their right to express.

 

Thousands gathered at Place de la Bastille, a symbolic premises of France, where the French revolution started.

 

People displayed placards saying 'We are not Terrorists ', 'Give us the right of expression', and 'There is a genocide going on against our Families in Sri Lanka.'

 

The riot police cordoned off and blocked the demonstrators from moving. Everyone sat down and started shouting slogans.

 

"There was another demonstration of a French trade union of teachers going on in the same venue at that time. Seeing our plight, they joined us shouting at the French police and even provided space for a representative of us to speak on their stage," a participant said.