With the Norwegian peace process struggling, observers of Sri Lanka’s conflict have over the past several months become increasingly anxious about the simmering shadow war in the island’s east. Amid this cycle of violence, the assassination of Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in August came as a considerable shock. The Co-Chairs of the Tokyo Donor Conference held an extraordinary meeting a short while later and, expressing their manifest displeasure over the prevailing situation, demanded that the Liberation Tigers and the Sri Lankan government meet promptly to discuss ways to stabilize the slowly unraveling ceasefire agreement. Whilst both sides expressed their readiness to talk, the discussions are stalled amid a dispute over the venue. The Tigers, citing the threat outlined by the Co-Chairs themselves – the anti-LTTE paramilitary groups Sri Lanka’s military is fostering – sought negotiations in a foreign location (or in their controlled areas). Although this was in keeping with past practice and circumvented the security issue, Sri Lanka refused, proffering the puerile argument that talks abroad would enhance the LTTE’s legitimacy. As the impasse continued, frustrations have inevitably set in, not only on both sides, but also amongst international actors involved in promoting Sri Lanka’s peace.

These factors, we presume, prompted the European Union’s harshly worded statement last week. The EU blamed the Tigers solely for the ongoing violence ‘and terrorism.’ It barred LTTE delegations from visiting its member states and, warning of an outright ban, threatened punitive actions against the organization and its supporters – the Tamils resident in its home territories. The EU thus departed noticeably from the relatively even-handed approach hitherto adopted by the Co-Chairs. In doing so, it reduced the complex security milieu in Sri Lanka to the dangerously simple logic of petulant aggression on the LTTE’s part. It also, in effect, appeared to tacitly sanction the continuation of Sri Lanka’s paramilitary campaign.

The assumptions behind the EU’s punitive sanctions are deeply flawed. To begin with, as the LTTE has itself pointed out, the EU’s actions are more likely to advance a renewed war in Sri Lanka than to stay it. Sri Lanka’s Sinhala leadership will be emboldened to adopt an increasingly uncompromising position at the negotiating table and indeed, to flirt again with the military option. Apart from weakening the LTTE’s negotiating position at future talks, the EU’s approach will encourage spoilers in the Sri Lankan military to step up the shadow war. Blame for the violence, after all, has been already been unilaterally apportioned.

More fundamentally, by so pointedly criminalizing the Tamil cause (and its resident Tamil communities), the EU has undermined the viability of the peace process as a vehicle to pursue Tamil political aspirations. Why should Sri Lanka consider the Tamil position when 25 European democracies have dismissed it out of hand? It was, after all, the international community’s watchdog presence that has hitherto underpinned Tamil confidence in the negotiation process. Oslo’s initiative began, it must be recalled, in the aftermath of bitter fighting at the turn of the century. Although some subscribe erroneously to the ‘hurting stalemate’ theory, close observers of Sri Lanka’s conflict are well aware of the balance of forces (post-Elephant Pass and Agni-Kiela) which spurred the peace process. In short, with Colombo’s armed forces cowed, albeit temporarily, the LTTE saw negotiations as more efficacious than its armed struggle in pursuing Tamil aspirations – provided third party involvement ensured even-handed international scrutiny.

Since then, however, the peace process has faced dead end after dead end. An estimated 800,000 (out of 3.2 million Tamils) remain displaced. Yet the Sub-committees on rehabilitation and normalization fell by the wayside. The interim administration was never seriously taken up and the ISGA was binned. Even the tsunami failed to shift Colombo’s intransigence: the much-vaunted P-TOMS that the Co-Chairs so firmly insisted on proved still born. In the meantime, the LTTE’s security environment deteriorated under the sustained paramilitary campaign. And therein lies the difficulty. The EU has demanded the LTTE demonstrates its commitment to peace and “a willingness to change.” The implication is that the LTTE’s actions are simply characteristic of an inherently belligerent nature. But we suggest the movement’s actions must be viewed against the backdrop of the prevailing military context. The multi-faceted paramilitary threat faced by its cadres and leaders constitutes an unavoidable and overriding priority for the LTTE. The movement has repeatedly stated its commitment to a negotiated solution and in four fruitless years has demonstrated a tenacity for pursuing peace that few of its critics would have credited it with in 2001. Just like any other rational actor, the LTTE has no choice but to confront the clear and present danger it is facing. One-sided condemnation and punitive measures will not lessen this necessity, but will foreclose alternatives to confronting it.

Fierce storms hampered relief efforts in Pakistan, where thousands of displaced people are living in refugee camps after an earthquake measuring 7.6 hit in the country’s north eastern region Saturday.

The epicentre of the quake was in Muzaffarabad, 95km north-northeast of the capital Islamabad and the regional capital of Pakistani Kashmir. There was also damage in Indian administered Kashmir.

Over 140 aftershocks were recorded, 21 of which were over 5.0 on the Richter scale, reports said.

The Pakistani government’s official death toll stood Wednesday at about 23,000 people and 47,000 injured, but a senior army official who requested anonymity told the Associated Press an estimated 35,000 to 40,000 people had died.

The death toll in Indian Kashmir has reached at least 1,460, with 4,386 injured, officials said Wednesday.

The United Nations reports that 4 million people were affected by the quake in Pakistan, 1 million of them severely, with another 500,000 displaced. Pakistan’s Prime Minister places the number of displaced at 2.5 million.

Food and other relief aid flowed into more areas of northern Pakistan as rescue operations increasingly became a relief mission for those who survived. But four days after the quake many of the worst affected had yet to see any aid, despite huge pledges from around the world.

“Our resources are very stretched - every time we rush to one place we hear of another place that is worse,” said army Colonel Y.P. Sayyaj in the mountain town of Bata Mora in Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province. “I know people are suffering but we have to prioritise. Everyone will get help in the end.”

“Because of rain and the onset of cold weather, provision of shelter is our first priority,” a senior military official involved in relief operations told Reuters on Wednesday. “We are in short supply of blankets and plastic sheets. We also badly need shrouds to bury the dead.”

Malaria and other diseases are breaking out in Pakistani Kashmir, where health services are in ruins with hospitals wrecked and many doctors killed. Corpses and sewage are contaminating Neelum River, the main source of drinking water in Muzaffarabad.

US, Pakistani, German and Afghan helicopters took food, medicines and other supplies to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan’s portion of divided Kashmir, and then ferried out the injured to hospitals. Some 50,000 Pakistani troops joined the relief effort.

Still, residents in Muzaffarabad were desperate, mobbing trucks with food and water and grabbing whatever they could. The weak were pushed aside.

The arrival of the first aid in the town of Battagram, about 30 km from Bata Mora, on Tuesday, caused scuffles.

“The people are very angry over the late arrival of the aid,” said a local journalist. “Many people were lying under open sky in hail and rain yesterday with no shelter. Today, the weather is clear and the army has promised to give 750 tents to us.”

Across the border, a villager in the Indian hamlet of Pingla Haridal told a Reuters team: “The world has forgotten we exist. You are the first people here asking about us besides some soldiers who pulled out bodies on the first day.”

The quake has damaged sanitation systems in the region, destroyed hospitals and left many victims with no access to clean drinking water, making them more vulnerable to disease.

“Measles could potentially become a serious problem,” said Fadela Chaib, a WHO spokeswoman in Geneva. “We fear that if people huddle closely together in temporary shelters and crowded conditions, more measles cases could occur.”

Measles - potentially deadly for children - are already endemic in the region and only 60 percent of the children are protected. At least 90 percent coverage is needed to prevent an epidemic, WHO said. The agency will soon start gathering essential vaccines for a mass immunization program.

In India, government assessments indicate 35,000 houses and buildings were damaged in Srinagar and Jammu. There was also minor damage in Afghanistan, with four people killed.

The United Nations announces it is launching an appeal for about USD272 million. The appeal covers shelter, food, medicines, medical equipment and transport.

About 30 countries- including the United States, France, Japan, Jordan, China, Russia, Iran, and Syria - have sent relief equipment, doctors, paramedics, tents, blankets, medicines, disaster relief teams. Many have also pledged financial assistance.

In Washington, Pentagon spokesman Larry Di Rita said within the next couple of days there likely would be 25 to 30 U.S. military helicopters sent to Pakistan, from Afghanistan, Bahrain and other countries in the region.


Sri Lanka donates $100,000

Sri Lanka has pledged a sum of 100,000 US dollars in assistance for the earthquake victims of Pakistan, the state owned Daily News reported.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Foreign Minister Anura Bandaranaike in messages of condolence to their counterparts in Pakistan and India have expressed their shock and deep distress at the unprecedented loss of life and destruction.

Kumaratunga, expressing her condolence to General Pervez Musharraf, President of Pakistan, stated that the people and the government of Sri Lanka express their solidarity with Pakistan at this moment of national anguish.

Negotiations over the final status of the UN-administered Serbian province of Kosovo should begin and independence should be on the agenda. That is reportedly what UN Secretary General Kofi Annan will recommend in proposals to the UN Security Council on October 24, according to press reports.

Kosovo has been governed by UN mandate for the past six years in the wake on international intervention to end Serbian aggression.

With talks on Kosovo scheduled to begin in December, all sides are hedging their bets - Belgrade to maintain its sovereignty over the province, and Pristina to win nothing short of full independence.

If the Security Council agrees with his proposal, Annan is to name a personal representative to head the negotiations. There is speculation that former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari is to be nominated.

The UN envoy is expected to have three deputies: one from the US, one from the EU, and one from Russia.

If the Security Council decides on the negotiations, and if Annan chooses Ahtisaari, and if Ahtisaari agrees, the former Finnish President will face one of the biggest challenges of his career in crisis resolution. The situation in Kosovo remains very tense.

The difficulty was underscored by a report drafted by Norwegian Ambassador Kai Eide at Annan’s request.

“The end result must be stable and sustainable. Artificial deadlines should not be set. Once the process has started, it cannot be blocked and must be brought to a conclusion,” it says.

Annan says that the talks should lead to either independence for Kosovo, or a far-reaching autonomy for the province, as a part of Serbia. About 90% of Kosovo’s population are ethnic Albanians who want independence.

However, even more important for them is an end to the years of no progress, and the launch of the status talks. Kai Eide came to the same conclusion, noting that the process should move forward, even though the establishment of democratic structures for Kosovo remains incomplete.

The UN’s basic principle in Kosovo has constantly been “standards before status”. In practice this means that certain minimum standards for administration, finances, and relations between ethnic groups had to be established before discussions on Kosovo’s final status with respect to Serbia-Montenegro could begin.

Certain administrative and legal institutions have been set up in the area, which now produce public services.

However, politicians in Kosovo feel that they primarily answer to their own parties, rather than to the people as a whole. The economic situation, meanwhile, is poor, and unemployment is extensive. The police and the court system need improvement, the protection of property is poor, and relations between ethnic groups are strained.

The Eide report warned that while the UN had done “a credible and impressive job” in fulfilling its mandate in Kosovo, “its leverage (there) is diminishing”.

It underscored the need for the European Union, Nato and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to play a key role in the status process.

“A future status process should be accompanied by a clear expression by the international community that it is determined to stay and support this process as well as its outcome,” it says.

Annan is being backed by the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Olli Rehn, who was recently in Belgrade to open negotiations on a stability and association agreement between the EU and Serbia-Montenegro.

In an interview with AFP, he said that the negotiations on the status of Kosovo must take place and that they must not be allowed to hurt talks between the EU and Serbia.

While the province enjoyed relative autonomy under the Yugoslav Communist government in the 1970s, the 1980s were characterized by rising ethnic tensions, with both Serbs and Albanians complaining of discrimination.

In August 1987, as the Communist regime was on its last legs, rising Serbian politician Slobodan Milosevic visited the province, setting the stage for what was to become a bloody conflict. In 1989, Milosevic stripped Kosovo of its autonomy. Mass unrest and the slaughter and forced removal of Kosovo Albanians ensued during the war of 1998-1999.

Since the end of the Kosovo war in 1999, after NATO’s military action against the Serbs, the province has been under the jurisdiction of the UN, although sovereignty has technically remained with Serbia.