International truce monitors this week said they believed reports Sri Lanka Army troops were conducting Deep Penetration raids into Tamil Tiger controlled areas, killing several civilians. Their comments came as the LTTE said its frontlines to the north and south of Vanni were attacked by infiltrating SLA soldiers. Meanwhile, the international monitors also said Sri Lankan security forces are responsible for extrajudicial killings with the troops so unconcerned as to the consequences as to not even provide plausible denials.
The Nordic-staffed Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) office in the northern town of Vavuniya told Reuters Monday it has recorded at least seven attacks in LTTE-controlled areas, including several on civilians.

The monitors believe military patrols are working alongside anti-Tiger Tamil armed groups.

“We believe that the Sri Lankan army and Tamil armed groups are operating behind LTTE lines,” truce monitor Bernt Gulbrandesen told Reuters. “There are so many incidents it has to be an organized thing.”

Monitors also said that paramilitaries of the Karuna Group were being deployed in Vavuniya.

“I firmly believe that Karuna is going around this area,” Mr Jouni Suninen, head of the district office of the SLMM in Vavuniya told Reuters.

“We have eyewitnesses who tell us they have seen Karunas around. I cannot see how they could be operating here without the support of the army.”

Sri Lanka’s military and government reject accusations that there are backing the renegade LTTE commander in a campaign against the LTTE.

Howver, the monitors in Vavuniya told Reuters they are confident they have evidence. They say they believe Karuna’s men are operating from army camps and carrying out attacks behind rebel lines.

“We have eyewitnesses telling us that they are based in army camps,” said Mr Suninen.

Reuters quoted the Tigers as saying the first attack on them in their controlled areas was a claymore fragmentation mine ambush on a LTTE political wing leader in January, during a spike in violence that preceded a first round of peace talks in Switzerland.

Last week truce monitors said probable Tamil Tiger attacks on the military have been followed by disappearances and open killings of Tamil civilians.

“We have very strong indications that at least part of the government troops have been involved in these killings,” Suninen, an Finnish ex-army officer, said.

“The pattern is clear,” he added. In one case, a civilian was killed 60 metres from an army checkpoint. The soldiers told the monitors they heard nothing.

Suninen said at least 40 people have been killed in the last month by suspected Tigers, soldiers or associated groups around Vavuniya, just beyond the southern border of LTTE-controlled Vanni.

For the first time, the monitoring mission’s field staff were authorised to speak on the record about what they had found. They say publicity is the only weapon they have.

The monitors say suspected military killings target civilians believed to be LTTE-linked.

Ponnuthurai Thayanithi, 27, killed last week, had one sister who had died fighting for the Tigers but was not believed to have any direct link. Police initially refused to come and inspect the body, said Heiskanen.

“This is where the girl was killed in the middle of the day,” Heiskanen said. “As you can see, we’re about 60 metres from an army checkpoint. There are always three soldiers there. The girl had two bullets in her head. They didn’t hear or see anything.”

Heiskanen said he asked the soldiers why they had not noticed the killing taking place within sight and earshot. They said that as the shots were fired, there was a particularly strong gust of wind, so they had heard nothing.

“I said ‘how do you know what was the exact time?’“ he said. “It is ridiculous. They don’t even try to make things up.”

People have disappeared at government checkpoints and turned up dead. A white van seen before some of the killings appears to have moved with impunity through checkpoints and in one case was reportedly seen leaving an army camp, the monitors say.

A day after the European Union proscribed the Liberation Tigers as terrorists, the EU joined the other Co-Chairs of Sri Lanka’s donors – the United States, Japan and Norway – to warn of more punitive measures unless there is progress towards de-escalating the violence gripping the island.

The Co-Chairs also said that Norway had come up with a number of proposals for a final solution to the conflict which they (Co-Chairs) had endorsed and would be unveiled “soon.”

“[Meanwhile] the Co-Chairs call on both parties to take immediate steps to reverse the deteriorating situation and put the country back on the road to peace,” the quartet, who met in Tokyo Tuesday said in a statement.

Spelling out specific steps expected of the LTTE to take, they warned “The international community will respond favourably to such actions; failure to do so will lead to deeper isolation of the LTTE.”

Laying out a set of expectations of the Sri Lankan state, the Co-Chairs declared, equally ambiguously: “The international community will support such steps; failure to take such steps will diminish international support.”

The LTTE, the Co-Chairs demanded, “must re-enter the negotiating process. It must renounce terrorism and violence. It must show that it is willing to make the political compromises needed for a political solution within a united Sri Lanka. This solution should include democratic rights of all peoples of Sri Lanka.”

The Government, meanwhile, “must show that it will address the legitimate grievances of the Tamils. It must immediately prevent groups based in its territory from carrying out violence and acts of terrorism. It must protect the rights and security of Tamils throughout the country and ensure violators are prosecuted. It must show that it is ready to make the dramatic political changes to bring about a new system of governance which will enhance the rights of all Sri Lankans, including the Muslims.

In a rebuke of the hardline Sinhala nationalist government of President Mahinda Rajapakse, the Co-Chairs said: “the Tamil and Muslim peoples of Sri Lanka have justified and substantial grievances that have not yet been adequately addressed. The Co-Chairs encourage the Government of the Sri Lanka to further develop concrete policies for addressing the grievances of minorities and for building mutual confidence between different communities. The Co-Chairs and the international community will support the Government’s efforts towards implementing such policies.”

Both sides were criticised by the Co-Chairs for the spiralling violence that has left hundreds dead since hastily convened talks in Geneva in February 2006. International truce monitors say that about 600 people, more than half of them civilians, have been killed since December, leaving the truce in force only on paper.

The Co-Chairs lamented the “breakdown of law and order and the terrorization of the affected population.”

“Abuses of human rights have been assessed recently by the UN and others. The Co-Chairs call on all parties to respect human rights and pursue human rights’ abuses. This situation is not sustainable and the country will continue its slide into greater conflict unless the two protagonists cease all violence and resolve their differences through peaceful negotiation,” they said.

“Both parties have responsibilities which they have failed to deliver upon, including the commitments made at their meeting in Geneva in February 2006. The LTTE is responsible for numerous terrorist attacks. The Government has failed to prevent attacks of armed groups, including Karuna and violent elements of EPDP.”

It is the first time the Co-Chairs have spelled out the paramilitary groups the LTTE has long protested are waging a murderous Army-backed campaign against its cadres and supporters.

“The situation in Sri Lanka is of our gravest concern,” Japan’s special peace envoy, Yasushi Akashi, told the Co-Chairs meeting. “We are now indeed in a very crucial and critical turning-point in Sri Lanka.”

The Co-Chairs met after the EU formally proscribed the LTTE as a terrorist organisation following a meeting of ministers from the 25 member states on Monday and almost exactly three years since they last met. Then, they and other donors pledged US$4.5bn in aid and made it conditional on ‘progress in the peace process.’

That conditionality has since fractured as aid and loans have reached Sri Lanka via bilateral arrangements with some donors, particularly after the December 2004 tsunami.

“Over $ 3,400 million has been provided by donors based on Tokyo pledges and tsunami funds,” the Co-Chairs said. “More than 20% of that assistance has been allocated to the North and East including LTTE controlled area.”

As well as freezing LTTE funds, the EU ban, which came at the urging of the United States and the Sri Lankan government, also provides for special EU cooperation measures to combat the group.

The EU proscription coincided with a day of protests across Astralasia, North America and Western Europe by Diaspora Tamils (pictures pages 8-9). Record crowds gathered in many European cities, but it was in Canada, where the LTTE was also recently proscribed, that the unprecedented numbers of Tamils found their way past a transport strike to rally in protest at the bans.

But an EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP the LTTE had brought the ban on itself.

“If they had been serious at the negotiating table we could have thought about another way, we would have set up a virtuous circle, instead of this vicious circle that we’re in at the moment,” he said.

When the Co-Chairs gave went to their frustrations Tuesday over Sri Lanka’s slide into a morass of brutality and violence, they were critical of the state also.

“Three years of work since the original Tokyo Conference shows the international community can only support but cannot deliver peace. Peace can only be delivered by Sri Lankans themselves. The Co-Chairs’ role can be meaningful only where those parties want to help themselves in bringing peace with commitment and honesty.”

Saying they “will support any solution agreed by the parties that safeguards the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka, assures protection and fulfils the legitimate aspirations of the Tamil people and indeed of the Muslim people, guarantees democracy and human rights, and is acceptable to all communities,” the Co-Chairs said:

“Norway has prepared a number of initiatives for the parties to return to talks, which will be issued shortly. The Co-Chairs endorsed these initiatives.”

Meanwhile, according to press reports Tuesday, the Tigers will send representatives for a two-day meeting in Norway starting June 8 to discuss the role of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM).

Three of the five Nordic countries constituting the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) are from EU member countries.

The safety of Scandinavian truce monitors will be high on the agenda after monitors become caught up in confrontations between the Sea Tigers and the Sri Lanka Navy recently.

This week the Co-Chairs reiterated their support for “the important role of Norway as facilitator to the peace process” and “the ceasefire monitoring activities of SLMM in an increasingly difficult situation.”‘

“At the same time, it is necessary to examine how to strengthen the role of SLMM,” the Co-Chairs said without elaborating.

While the situation gives cause for grave concern, the Co-Chairs concluded “the ingredients for a peaceful settlement remain present.”

“The majority in Sri Lanka still seek peace. All Co-Chairs renewed their commitment to do all possible to help Sri Lanka in a manner that promotes peace and to support the current Norwegian-facilitated peace effort. Other countries and organizations share this view and wish to support the Co-Chairs’ effort.”

Also without elaborating, the Co-Chairs said “to this end, [we] will explore interest for allocating tasks to other groups of countries to improve the efficiency of work within the areas defined by the participants in the Tokyo Conference three years ago.”

The EU blacklist was drawn up late in 2001, following the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington and is revised regularly. The militant Palestinian group Hamas and the Spanish separatist movement ETA figure on it.

The Tamil Tigers already figure on Britain’s terror list, as well as those of the United States, Canada and India.

Britain banned the Tigers in February 2001 while the EU in October slapped travel restrictions on them after holding the LTTE responsible for the August 2005 assassination of Sri Lankan foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar.

The EU warned at the time that the Tigers could face a complete ban, which would affect fundraising among the many Tamils living in Europe, unless they renounce violence.

The Canadian Tamil Congress (CTC) an organization which represents the interests of expatriate Tamil Canadians, held a ‘Tamil Solidarity Week for Peace’ from May 8 to May 14.

The event was held to “bring together Tamil Canadians and other peace-loving Canadians to express their solidarity and support for finding lasting peace in Sri Lanka,” said Mr. David Poobalapillai a spokesperson for the CTC.

“Canada’s recent decision to proscribe one party of the peace process, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), has dealt a blow for the prospects for peace in Sri Lanka and placed the lives of our relatives and loved ones in NorthEast in grave danger,” Mr. Poobalapillai said.

“The delicate balance of power that was critical in maintaining the Ceasefire has been upset by the Canadian Government’s ill-conceived decision to blacklist one of the parties in the peace process,” the CTC spokesperson said.

“Canada’s decision has also emboldened the Sri Lankan military and Sinhala hardliners to step up the violence against Tamil civilians in an attempt to provoke a new war,” he further said.

According to the CTC, Tamil Solidarity Week was also intended to highlight how the ban has infringed on fundamental rights and freedoms of Canadian Tamils.

“The Tamil community is being slandered and portrayed in a negative light in the media. At places of work and educational institutions, Tamils are increasingly subject to suspicion and scrutiny. The ban has curtailed community’s regular activities and this has profoundly aggrieved us,” the Congress said.

CTC requested Canadian Tamils to display black flags and pins in their automobiles, homes and business establishments in a show of solidarity during the week.

Tamil youth organisations, alumni associations, women’s organizations, senior’s organizations, sports clubs, leading Tamil Canadian intellectuals and professionals, and the Canadian Tamil Media Forum participated and organised events throughout the week.

Speaking at an inaugural event at Delta Toronto East Hotel in Toronto, Ms. Barbara Jackman a prominent immigration lawyer said that the Canadian Government’s decision “sends a message to Canadians that you should not be supporting any, even the political objectives of the Tamil cause to self-determination.”

According to Ms. Jackman, the decision by the Canadian Government changes the dynamics in Sri Lanka. “What it does especially at this time of the deteriorating situation in Sri Lanka - it gives the Sri Lankan government an upper edge,” Ms. Jackman said.

“Tamils need to educate others on the oppression taken against Tamils and increasing series of violence since the 50s. It is clear that the Conservative Government does not know much about the Tamil community - does not understand the conflict in Sri Lanka,” Ms. Jackman added.

Marlys Edwardh, a prominent criminal lawyer in Canada a partner of Edwardh & Ruby said, “The Government of Canada made a – what has been a very political choice to list the LTTE as a terrorist organization under Canadian Law.” Speaking on the culture of fear that has gripped the community since the series of raids that followed Canada’s decision, Edwardh said, “We need to look more closely into this legislation and understand the impact on the community in order to reduce uncertainty and fear to act and speak freely.”

“What was taken and why? Why would [RCMP] officers take subscriptions list to a community newspaper? Why would they make it difficult for an independent newspaper to function? Whose voice are they trying to silence?” Edwardh asked in a series of penetrating questions to the audience

Tarek Fatah of the Muslim Canadian Congress said, “You cannot sanctify, legitimize, politify these whims at [parliament] hill with impunity. You send your super sonic jet fighters to bombard Tamil villages and then accuse the victims of that bombardment as terrorists and leave the government that bombed the people as law-bidding.” “Those who fight for freedom cannot be stigmatized as terrorists,” Mr. Fatah further observed.

Community activist Gary Anandasangaree said, “This is not the Canada we are familiar with.”

Mr. Anandasangaree announced that a “Tamil Canadian Legal Defense Fund” will be established to protect Tamil Canadians and hotline will be made available and cases of rights violations in Canada will be documented.

The local government election held on May 4, 2006 in the UK saw an unprecedented number of Tamil candidates putting forward their names as candidates. In addition to six candidates re-contesting, a dozen others entered the fray with lots of enthusiasm. It is now confirmed eight of the Tamil hopefuls have been elected.

Miss Elizabeth Packiyadevi Mann (Lib-Dem-Southwark Council), Paul Sathyanesan (Labour, Newham Council), Daya Idaikadar (Labour-Harrow Council), Manoharan Dharmarajah (Labour-Harrow Council), Mike Selva (Labour-Harrow Council) and Yogan Yoganathan (Lib-Dem, Kingston Council) were the re-elected Councillors at the election.

The newly elected Councillors are Mrs Sasikala Suresh (Labour-Harrow) and Vidyaharan Ram Mohan (Conservative- Croydon Council).

Nish Vel never thought Tamil students living in Canada would be the target of police raids.

“Canada is known for being up on human rights ... this raid is completely contradictory to what I know about Canada,” said Vel, 17, who was one of a few hundred Tamils gathered at Mel Lastman Square on Yonge St. for a rally last Wednesday night.

The gathering was organized to protest a police raid April 22 at the Tamil Academy of Culture and Technology, the Toronto Star reported.

“I didn’t think this would happen here,” Vel said, adding such events happen “on a daily basis” in Sri Lanka.

Vel said his family escaped persecution in his homeland by coming to Canada in 1994, so “I’m really disappointed and saddened” this happened here, he said.

The rally was put on by the Canadian Tamil Students Association (CTSA). It was also in protest of what the CTSA is calling “discriminatory policies” by the Canadian government, which in April condemned the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) as a terrorist group.

The CTSA wants the Canadian government to hold consultations with local Tamils before making policy decisions, to get involved in the Sri Lankan peace process and reconsider its decision to put the LTTE on the terror list.

Students waved black flags and chanted along with a rap group who sang about freedom of expression.

“We’re being targeted and discriminated against,” said Senthooran Uruthiralingam, a student at the rally.

He said all Tamil groups are being portrayed as terrorists.

“We’re not,” he said.

3349 Tamil children sat for proficiency tests in Tamil and religion in 17 of the 23 cantons in Switzerland Saturday conducted by the Swiss Tamil Educational Service (TES), a volunteer organization administered by expatriate Tamils, sources said. The examinations are being conducted for the 12th consecutive year, according to TES officials.

Children from Grade 1 to Grade 10 took the tests. Students, in addition to Tamil Language, had a choice of Hinduism, Christianity or Roman Catholism as electives in religion.

More than 300 volunteer teachers administered the tests in 37 different test centers, organizers said.

Officials said that a Test-center Director, Examinations Supervisor, assistant invigilators and Administrator for the Question, Answer sheets were appointed for each test centre. The examination officers had a joint session in April when they were given test instructions, according to TES officials.

A 24 hour camp, titled ‘Share Refuge 2006’ was organised by the Tamil Youth Organisation (TYO), to highlight the plight of the many refugees and internally displaced people around the world.

It was held at Burwood Park, Burwood, from 4pm Saturday April 29 till 4pm Sunday April 30th 2006.

A total of 83 youth participated, with 47 participants staying overnight in the cold outdoors. An estimated 100 visited to show support and give encouragement.

There were also many special guests, including Graham Jackson from NSW Ecumenical Council, Dr Shanti Raman - a specialist in paediatrics and psychiatry, who spoke about health of refugee children, the Mayor of Strathfield - Mr Bill Carney, Kate Maclurcan from Bridge for Asylum Seekers Foundation, the Member for Strathfield - Ms Virginia Judge, and Mr Ernest Wong – a Councillor for Burwood Council.

The 24 hour period was used to educate the participants and visitors regarding the plight of refugees around the world, including NorthEast Sri Lanka where the majority of the participants’ parents were from.

Importance was also given to Hurricane Larry victims, to highlight the fact that refugees and internally displaced persons also exist in our own country.

A prayer service was held at exactly 8.45 am on the Sunday morning, to coincide with the time when the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami hit the island of Sri Lanka. Hindu, Christian and Muslim prayers were said to remember the lives destroyed by the disaster.

The event was primarily to raise awareness. However, funds collected through donations and the sale of raffle tickets are to be distributed between rebuilding and rehabilitation projects for tsunami victims, and assistance to the victims of Hurricane Larry, organisers said.

“One such project will be the construction of a ‘Knowledge Centre’ in the NorthEast of Sri Lanka – a project that hopes to shoulder some of the burden of educating the young internally displaced people and provide them with the opportunity and the promise of a better life that we youth in Australia take for granted.”

At the closing of the event, the young participants created a sign saying “Peace with Justice and Freedom” to recognise the recent upsurge of violence in Sri Lanka, which saw a reported 40,000 new internally displaced people.

Sri Lanka’s military is now killing Tamil civilians with abandon. Emboldened by the manifest reluctance of international ceasefire monitors, leading members of the international community and southern liberals to condemn their actions, Sri Lanka’s armed forces are abducting and killing people with impunity. In the past two weeks alone, dozens of civilians have been murdered by army and navy personnel who, amongst numerous other attacks, abducted youth from a temple, rocketed rickshaws carrying revellers to a birthday party and, this weekend, rampaged through residential parts of an islet off Jaffna. Meanwhile, people suspected of supporting the Liberation Tigers are being abducted and murdered or shot out of hand in the street. The matter of extra-judicial killings was raised with reporters by frustrated junior ceasefire monitors. “They [military] don’t even try to make things up,” one said in disgust.

But the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) is officially silent on the wave of bloodletting unleashed by the military amongst the Tamils of the Northeast. Indeed, the SLMM’s new head, Ulf Henricsson, has focussed his attention primarily on censuring the LTTE. This newspaper warned recently that the SLMM had set a dangerous precedent by withdrawing, under Colombo’s hostile pressure, its accusation that that “government security forces have, in the north and the east, been involved in extrajudicial killings of civilians.” Regrettably, we were proven right within days. Killings of civilians by the armed forces have escalated sharply, particularly in Jaffna, but also in every other district of the Northeast.

We also queried earlier, that if the international monitors are prepared to retract their statements or abandon their ‘convictions’ simply because the Sri Lankan state expresses its displeasure, then what purpose is served by the SLMM? To monitor the LTTE alone? The answer, it seems, is yes. Despite the widely reported, unabashed violence unleashed by the armed forces against Tamil civilians, the SLMM seems more preoccupied with Colombo’s accusations against the Tigers.

Matters have not been helped by the undisguised contempt Mr. Henricsson demonstrated for the LTTE in his wide-ranging comments to the press in the recent past. Mr. Henricsson’s job is to monitor breaches of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), not pontificate on the character of the LTTE and its leadership. Nor is it his brief to theorize on sovereignty or to interpret international law. Those are matters, surely, for the negotiators of both sides, if and when the so-called ‘core issues’ are taken up for discussion. It is Mr. Henricsson’s brief, however, to investigate and condemn the violence unleashed against our people by the armed forces, amongst other breaches of the CFA. His failure, indeed refusal, to do so has arguably contributed to accelerating the cycle of violence.

The SLMM, however, is following the conduct of leading international actors involved in Sri Lanka’s ‘peace process’. Amid very real fears that Sri Lanka is slipping back towards a major conflict, the international community, resolutely refusing to look at the localized dynamics of the ‘shadow war’ (now, according to the SLMM a ‘low-intensity war’) are focused primarily on pressuring one side, the LTTE. The Tamils have repeatedly argued that the violence is a cycle, whose continuation stems from the actions of both sides. But rather than condemn and pressure the Sinhala nationalist government of President Mahinda Rajapakse, the international community is instead praising Colombo and condemning the LTTE.

The wider framework of peace and political accommodation are irrelevant to the Tamils now. Physical security is the only concern. Thus it is the international community’s continuing reluctance to rein in the Sinhala leadership that is going to precipitate a major confrontation. Some Tamils suspect the international community is allowing Colombo a space to terrorise the rebellious minority into pressuring the Tigers to be more accommodative. Such logic ignores the history of the conflict. Indeed, Tamil media report a sudden flood of recruits to the Tigers, rather than a flurry of petitions.

In the meantime, the impassive, implacable attitude of the international community is eroding Tamil faith in international commitment to their wellbeing. The feeling that the callousness demonstrated during the ‘war for peace’ of the late nineties still holds, has gained widespread credence. This is also contributing to belligerence amidst the terror. The CFA has been described as the bedrock of the Norwegian peace process. This is not only because it promoted a sense of security between the protagonists and Sri Lanka’s peoples, but because it provided a secure space in which communal harmony and amity could grow. Both are fast disintegrating.

M Karunanidhi, the 82 year old leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) was sworn in as the new Tamil Nadu chief Minister. The swearing in ceremony was the final act in Tamil Nadu’s month long political drama.

The Dravidian patriarch was sworn in as the state''s Chief Minister for the fifth time, vowing: “I, M. Karunanidhi, swear to carry out my duties as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, and will fulfill their dream of good governance.”

The DMK, with 31 cabinet ministers, will go on to form Tamil Nadu''s first minority government with outside support from its allies.

The state has broken with a 60-year tradition of giving a clear mandate to any one party. To that extent, the May 2006 verdict is likely to be read as the point of a marked shift in regional politics.

With the DMK forming a minority government in Tamil Nadu, it is the Congress, India’s grand old party, that is said to have enjoyed a dramatic resurgence in the state in last week’s local government elections.

The second most spectacular beneficiary of the May 8 polls is said to be the newly floated party of actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth, the DMDK, announcing loud and clear: ‘We are the future.’

Vijayakanth created a sensation in his maiden electoral participation, winning from Viruthachalam, overcoming the established PMK by over 13,700 votes.

His DMDK cut into PMK’s vote bank as well as into DMK and AIADMK support base. Contesting all 234 seats, his party polled almost 9 percent of all votes. In 53 seats it was runner-up.

The DMK and its allies, including the Congress, PMK, Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and Communist Party of India (CPI), won 163 seats, polling a total of 45 percent votes.

In 1967, the DMK routed the Congress to herald a sea change in Indian politics. For the first time, the Congress was told loud and clear that regional parties were there to stay.

It is the same DMK that has now, in alliance with Congress, allowed the latter to increase its seats from 30 in 2001 to 34 now, despite press reports of infighting.

The two Left parties too have increased their strength from 12 legislators to 15, perhaps a sign that their plea for social justice has reached more ears.

The vote for DMK will be a cause for concern for MDMK’s Vaiko as his clout with the Congress-led government in New Delhi may no longer hold. The Congress, in a bid to keep the DMK happy, may sacrifice Vaiko from the central coalition.

The AIADMK and its allies, Vaiko’s MDMK and Dalit Panthers of India, won just 69 seats, polling 41 percent of the votes.

The AIADMK won 60, MDMK six, entering the assembly for the first time, and the Dalit Panthers got two seats.

AIADMK sources said that the caste vote from the Thevars, which always went to the AIADMK, especially in southern districts, had this time been fractured.

One reason could be the AIADMK’s alliance with the Dalit Panthers; another could be Vijayakanth eating into the AIADMK vote bank.

The DMK suffered an unexpected setback in Chennai, losing eight of the 14 seats to AIADMK, again Vijayakanth taking away DMK votes.

The DMK alliance performed better than expected even in rural areas, making inroads into traditional AIADMK pockets and won in areas where Christians and Muslims dominate.

Although the DMK''s manifesto was severely criticized by many, it’s an election that’s clearly won on populist promises. Karunanidhi began his new term by reducing the price of ration rice to Rs 2 a kg, waiving the farmers’ cooperative loans and supplementing the nutritious noon meal given to schoolchildren with two eggs a week.

The victory of the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu is not expected to have any impact on Sri Lanka unless war erupts in the island and Tamil refugees flee to the Indian state in large numbers.

All Dravidian parties will continue to oppose an India-Sri Lanka defence agreement. Unlike others, the DMK may not make a noise about it and instead lobby against it quietly.

The reason the DMK would do this is not because of any sympathy for the LTTE but because such an accord is seen as a decisive show of support by New Delhi to the “Sinhalease-Buddhist state” in Colombo as opposed to the “Tamil side”.

But because the DMK – and its PMK ally – are partners in the Congress-led central government, they are forced to temper their words and conduct so as not to be in conflict with the country’s national and strategic interests.

Vaiko’s MDMK is also a part of India’s ruling coalition but its influence is now tipped to wane because of the anti-DMK line it took in the polls.

It is significant that Tamil Nadu parties did not make Sri Lanka a campaign issue in the May 8 elections although a warlike situation has prevailed there since December.

Jaffna came to a standstill on Thursday May 4 to protest an attack two days earlier by Army-backed paramilitaries on the offices of the Tamil-language newspaper Uthayan in Jaffna, that left two people dead and another two seriously injured.

Though the Sri Lankan government blamed the Liberation Tiers for the attack, the paper protested that the LTTE had nothing to do with it and blamed the paramilitary Eelam Peoples’ Democratic Party (EPDP), an ally of the governing party.

Information Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa publicly blamed the LTTE for the attack, saying “the LTTE wants to tarnish Sri Lanka’s image and wants to show the outside world that the government is not for media freedom,” he told the press.

But the editor of the Uthayan, N. Vithyatharan told the media: “I have no doubt that this is the work of armed groups working with the government security forces.”

The EPDP is the largest of the Army-backed paramilitary group in Jaffna.

The Sri Lanka Defense Ministry later said that they had arrested six suspects, including two traders and four students from the eastern province temporarily residing in Jaffna. All six were granted bail because eyewitnesses were unable to pick them out in an identification parade.

But civil society members registered complaints with the Jaffna Human Rights Commission (JHRC) offices that four were innocent students.

They had been living in a privately rented apartment in Kannathiddy junction in Jaffna and were preparing for their GCE(A/L) examinations, attending tuition classes at the popular New Science School, a privately run educational institution in Jaffna.

A gang of five men armed with automatic rifles entered the Uthayan office on the evening of May 2 and began firing. Marketing manager Bastian George Sagayathas, 36, also known as Suresh, was the first killed.

The gunmen then moved to the circulation section and, while firing, ordered workers to lie down and not to raise their heads. S. Uthayakumar, 48, was injured during the shooting.

Circulation supervisor S. Ranjith, 25, was killed when he raised his head to see what was happening to Uthayakumar. He was held down and shot dead.

Another staff member was forced at gunpoint to lead the gang to the editorial area to find the sub-editor, but the rest of the staff had fled. After raking the computers with gunfire, the attackers fled on motorbikes. The two injured – Uthayakumar and another employee N. Thayakaran, 24 – were rushed to Jaffna Hospital with wounds.

The killers had demanded to see a number of journalists who were not on the premises. "Gunmen went inside looking for some senior reporters," an Uthayan journalist said. "They were not there, but the gunmen opened fire," he added.

"The gunmen were shooting at will, everybody they found inside the office were shot. Finally, they smashed all the computers in the office," an employee who managed to escape from the attackers told TamilNet.

Eyewitnesses identified one of the attackers, dressed in black civil clothes, as an EPDP paramilitary cadre.

“The reason for the attack may have been a cartoon that the newspaper published on Monday [May 1] of the leader of a rival group showing him prostrating himself before the president,” Vithyatharan told colleagues.

The cartoon was of the leader of the EPDP, Douglas Devananda, who is minister for social services and social welfare in President Rajapakse’s government.

President Rajapakse condemned the attack, ordered an investigation and reportedly rang V. Saravanabavan, the owner of the Sudaroli newspaper group that publishes Uthayan.

According to Vithyatharan, Rajapakse, in his telephone conversation with Saravanabavan, denied any government involvement in the attack. Vithyatharan said: “His [Rajapakse’s] thinking was that the Tigers had done it ahead of his speech [on world press freedom day] to embarrass him. But we clearly told him that the government should bear the responsibility.”

The Batticaloa district has been hit by a sex abuse scandal after reports that local women working for local and international Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) have been appearing in pornographic films sold locally.

Batticaloa and Trincomalee Bishop Kingsley Swamipillai told The Sunday Times he believed such abuse of women had been going on for some time and he welcomed the probe.

Batticaloa’s Senior Police Superintendent Maxi Proctor said no formal complaints of such sexual abuse had been made yet but he had read about it in leaflets.

Leaflets warning women to quit working for NGOs have been circulated across the eastern coast. The leaflets, distributed by an organisation calling itself the Tamil Eelam Women’s Uprising Army, warned all women working in NGOs to quit their jobs. The warning stated “your future life may be endangered” if this directive is not obeyed.

The Sunday Times reports the matter has not been officially reported to the police because the victims are afraid to come forward apparently due to the stigma attached to it and possible reprisals.

The crisis has reached such serious proportions that Tamil National Alliance (TNA) Batticaloa district MPs have requested District Secretary S. Puniyamoorthy to summon an urgent meeting with heads of both local and international NGOs in the district to probe the charges and take remedial action.

Akkaraipattu Inspector A. Gaffar told the Daily Mirror one DVD contains explicit video clips of a foreigner sexually abusing a 19-20 year old Tamil girl. The DVD apparently contains shots taken in the Elle area in Badulla. The DVDs are available for Rs. 50 in open markets across the Eastern province, reported the paper.

Later press reports said a young girl from Amparai had killed herself after appearing in a DVD. The 23-year-old from Karaitivu, who had been employed on a part time basis by an NGO in the area, said unknown men in a white van had driven her home from the NGO office one day knocked her out and released her three days later.

The Daily Mirror reported that the girl left a note saying she believed she had been raped by the men while she was held captive and that is why she committed suicide. However, the paper said she had appeared in some of the pornographic DVDs circulating in the area, which portrayed local girls with foreigners and that was why she had killed herself.

The leaflet also quotes a statement made by the Batticaloa TNA MP Pakkiaselvam Ariyanenthiran which states that “183 Tamil speaking girls in Batticaloa and 163 in Ampara district have undergone abortions,” and that these women were “employees of NGOs.”

These details were repeated made at a recent seminar on “Tamil women and culture” in Pawattan Thirukkovil.

The leaflet claims that “women working in NGOs are sexually abused” and that “in some cases where the abortions were not successful, they are on the verge of giving birth”. It also claims that parents who allow their daughters to work for NGOs should be held responsible for these supposed atrocities.

Meanwhile, the LTTE’s Batticaloa political wing leader Daya Mohan summoned a meeting of NGO representatives on Friday and told them the Tigers had evidence of sexual abuse of women. He warned there would be serious consequences if such abuse was not stopped.

Batticaloa district TNA Parliamentarian K.Thangeswari said they also had taken up the matter with some local and foreign NGOs and told them they need to respect local customs and traditions if they wished to work in the area.

The sexual abuse had allegedly taken place mainly in some of the worst tsunami-affected areas such as Nawaladi and Thiruchenthur in the Kalladi area. The women had been subjected to abuse after they were taken to distant places on the pretext of being taken for training, according to UN project officials in Batticaloa district.

The training programmes which lasted more than a week in some cases were held in hotels and women employees were allegedly coerced into posing for pornographic videos in exchange for cash handouts. The names of four leading international NGOs operating in these areas have been linked to these allegations, reports the Sunday Times.

More than 10,000 women are employed in nearly 300 NGOs and international NGOs in these districts. Many of them were set up after the tsunami in December, 2004.

NGO sources told the Daily Mirror two mosques in Kalmunai and Saindamaradu had publicly requested women to leave the NGOs. However, the Police did not corroborate this statement.

Consortium of Humanitarian Agencies (CHA) Executive Director Jeevan Thiagarajah noted that a joint plea has been forwarded to Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, IGP Chandra Fernando and the DIG East asking for protection for female NGO workers in the region.

The racket came to light when a lady doctor who allegedly performed some 75 abortions on the affected women made a confession. As a preliminary move to stopping the abuse, women workers have been told not to work in the NGOs or INGOs after 5 p.m. and to attend seminars only in the main offices instead of going to distant places.

Europeans have a rather quaint tradition of telling everyone when they intend to go to war.

That’s why so many of them are now asking the burning question: “Can the ceasefire in Sri Lanka survive the latest violence between the government and the Tamil Tiger rebels?”

But to ask the question is to miss the point. The two sides in Sri Lanka are already having a war - they just haven’t told anybody yet. And they’ve decided, so far, not to have the war everyone was expecting.

The Norwegian mediators, the EU, the Japanese and even an Indian holy man have all been busy trying to persuade both sides not to return to an all-out conflict.

But apart from the hardliners, neither the government nor the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), as the rebels are known, seem to want a big war because neither side is really prepared for it yet.

The reasons are cash and Karuna.

Colonel Karuna was one of the Tamil Tigers’ heroes of the last war, which ended with the much talked-about ceasefire agreement signed four years ago.

But in March 2004 he and his fighters, based around the eastern Batticaloa districts of the country, split from the group and began fighting against their former comrades.

Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan, Col Karuna’s real name, is both partly the cause of the present crisis and why there probably won’t be a full-scale war anytime soon.

He split from the Tigers because he said the eastern cadres were not being properly represented in the group’s hierarchy.

Some analysts in Colombo say it was more to do with an alleged financial investigation by the Tigers into his family’s business interests in the region.

Whatever the truth is, Col Karuna has levelled the playing field. He has opened up an eastern flank and has provoked the Tigers by attacking and destabilising them with the kind of guerrilla tactics the LTTE have used so successfully against the government over the years.

For the first time if a proper war happened both sides would now be facing a conventional force on the battlefield and a guerrilla force spreading terror in the areas populated by their civilians.

So the Tigers want him stopped.

The government committed itself to disarming any paramilitaries operating in areas under their control. But they’ve avoided taking action by saying Karuna is moving in Tiger territory beyond their influence.

The fact is, though, that whilst the more moderate wings of the government say he is an out-of-control menace who is doing more harm than good, the military leadership couldn’t be happier.

They have absolutely no intention of trying to disarm Karuna even if they could, which the UN said recently was doubtful.

They think he is far too useful. In fact more than just turning a blind eye to his actions they are encouraging his group to develop political and social wings to better integrate themselves into their communities in the way the Tigers have done so successfully in the north.

And some analysts say that, while the military isn’t arming Karuna, they are supporting him with finances, logistics and medical assistance for his injured fighters.

The worry in all of this is that the government in Colombo might overplay its hand.

The hardliners in the leadership believe a short sharp war could bulldoze the Tigers into submission and force a negotiated settlement.

It’s the kind of talk that has diplomats reaching for some very undiplomatic language. The response of one I spoke to translated as “crap”.

President Mahinda Rajapakse has so far managed to fend off the more extreme suggestions from the right-wingers within his government.

And he allowed limited air strikes to take away their puff after the latest Tiger atrocity in the capital.

But his attempts to stop a wider war are being undermined by the LTTE, something the international community is recognising. Last Thursday’s attack by the Tigers on the navy left the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission fuming, particularly as it took place whilst their people were on the government boats.

And there is increasingly a weariness creeping across the face of diplomats trying to resolve this conflict. Nobody likes being treated as a fool, and when the Tigers tell mediators they have no idea who sent a suicide bomber to blow up the army chief, finger nails start pushing into palms.

But even with all the provocation President Rajapakse knows war is not an option because the country simply cannot afford one. The economy is too shaky, damaged by years of war, the tsunami and then by the upsurge in violence.

He can’t afford to buy now everything the army would need. A full war would also see bombs going off all over the capital. As a colleague in Colombo pointed out, all it would take is a bomb in a hotel and one at the port to decimate two of the country’s biggest foreign exchange earners. Those investors lured back to Sri Lanka last time at the prospect of peace might pack their bags for good.

The Tigers would also see their foreign income strangled. Canada and the UK, where the group is banned but most of the Tamil diaspora lives, would probably make serious efforts to stop the willing and unwilling donations given to the Tiger fundraisers. That’s now much easier to do post 9/11 and the changes to the international banking regulations.

Another attack by the Tigers on someone as strategically important as the army chief might push the country beyond the point of no return.

In the meantime, the government will sort out security in the capital after places like its army headquarters turned out to have worse security than a Western shopping mall.

The Tigers will use their time to try and finish off Karuna, with the army doing its best to see that that fight drags on draining resources and energy from both groups.

Attacks like the one on the navy and claymore mine blasts against the army will rumble on. And so will the revenge killings against civilian Tiger sympathisers by the nasty bands of death squads, a few of whom appear to be linked to rogue bits of the security forces.

In short, people will carry on dying on a daily basis but in small enough numbers to maintain the façade that the ceasefire agreement is holding.

And Westerners will keep asking if war is just around the corner.

Paul Danahar is BBC South Asia bureau editor

It is a simple truth that any military CFA is based on a balance of power and in order to maintain the CFA that military balance of power must remain. Sea Tigers existed prior to CFA and it contributed to the balance of power that resulted in the CFA. Sea Tigers used the seas adjacent to our areas of control.

This fact was confirmed by the SLMM in its Press Release on 25 April 2003 where it said:

“When the Ceasefire Agreement was signed on the 22nd of Feb 02, the LTTE fighting formations, including the Sea Tigers, existed. Consequently, the LTTE Sea Tigers exists as a De Facto Naval Unit...Balance of power is one of the basic elements for the present Ceasefire. Hence, to maintain their Forces‚ capabilities both Parties must have the right to carry out training and exercise in designated areas.”

LTTE has since been warning the SLMM, on several occasions, verbally and in writing, that it will move Sea Tiger Naval vessels, armed or otherwise, in the seas adjacent to the land areas under LTTE control. We have repeatedly informed the SLMM that we will retaliate if SLN vessels intercept us. For this reason we have warned and requested the SLMM Naval Monitors to refrain from boarding SLN vessels. The three letters sent to SLMM are included below.

It was in this background, we were exercising in the seas adjacent to our land areas on 11 May 2006, when SLN vessels attempted to interfere with our movements and attacked us. As we have warned we retaliated.

In this unprovoked attack on the Sea Tiger vessels by SLN, four of our fighters lost their lives and two of our fighters are injured.

SLMM Press Release on 11 May 2006 relating to this incident said, “The sea surrounding Sri Lanka is a Government Controlled Area. This has been ruled so by the Head of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission in line with international law. Non-state actors cannot rule open sea waters or airspace. The LTTE has therefore no rights at sea.”

We like to point out to you that you are contradicting your own earlier statement that Sea Tigers are part of the balance of power and therefore must have the right to carry out training and exercises.

In spite of this and in spite of our warning, the SLMM has put its naval monitors at risk to provide protection to SLN vessels. At the same time, the SLMM has not provided protection to our fighters and our naval vessels. Even worse, the SLMM has ruled this incident a CFA violation against us.

Following this incident, Sri Lankan Air Force has bombed Vanni region. Sri Lankan armed forces have also carried out blind shelling and artillery attacks on heavily populated areas in the Sampur region of Trincomalee. These attacks are serious CFA violations. Yet, the SLMM has not condemned these attacks for the serious CFA violations that they are.

We are shocked and disappointed by the partiality demonstrated by the SLMM.

Attached are the three letters sent to SLMM requesting it to refrain from boarding SLN vessels:

18th April:

In recent times Sri Lankan Naval vessels boats have carried out several attacks on areas in our control along the Northeast coast. There were two such very serious attacks along the Trincomalee coastal areas. Cannons fired from Sri Lankan naval vessels have fell on civilian homes and work places along the Northeast coast. We have sent several complaints to you about these attacks.

Sri Lankan naval vessels have come very near the shores of our sea area and have fired at our Sea tiger Naval bases. In this context, situation may arise when we will be forced to return fire. Also, given the failure to arrange internal transport of our members, we may also be forced to use our own naval vessels for the transport of our members. If Sri Lankan naval vessels attempt to attack us we will be forced to take defensive action.

We are totally committed to the protection and safety of all SLMM members working in the Northeast. Therefore, given the above scenario, we request you to avoid boarding Sri Lankan naval vessels immediately on receiving this letter. Please inform all your Naval Monitors as soon as you have received this letter to stop boarding Sri Lankan naval vessels. We regret to state that if any SLMM members are hurt while in Sri Lankan naval vessels we cannot be held responsible for it.

10 May:

We refer to your letter dated 18 April 2006, in response to our earlier letter where we requested SLMM monitors to refrain from boarding Sri Lankan Naval vessels for the sake of the safety and security of the SLMM monitors.

We thank you for this reply dated 18 April.

We believe it is our responsibility to inform you of the threat to your safety and security, which we have done. It is of course your decision to act on that advice and we respect that.

We, however, wish to reiterate that we cannot be held responsible for any harm to SLMM monitors while on board a Sri Lankan Naval vessel.

11 May:

We have on several occasions verbally informed you to refrain from boarding Sri Lankan Naval vessels. We have also given this request in writing to you twice so far. This is the third request from us to you to refrain from boarding Sri Lankan Naval vessels.

Sri Lankan Navy is entering the sea adjoining the land in our control and disrupting the fishing activities of the people. It is also disturbing the LTTE exercises in doing so. If Sri Lankan Navy disrupts our activities we will definitely retaliate.

SLMM monitors are used by the Sri Lankan Navy as human shields in order to continue with these disruptions.

We urge you for the last time not to be on board Sri Lankan Naval vessels until further notice from us. If you chose to ignore our warning and request, we are not responsible for the consequences.

Please take this as the last warning to you to not board Sri Lankan Naval vessels.