• What’s so surprising?

    The leaked cable to the US State Department from US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Patricia Butenis has this week added to growing calls for international investigations into the Rajapakse administration’s culpability for war crimes.

    However, it is worth remembering that the cable's contents can only be a ‘revelation’ about Washington’s awareness, if relatively recent history is ignored. For example, this is what President Obama said on May 13, 2009:

    “First, the government should stop the indiscriminate shelling that has taken hundreds of innocent lives, including several hospitals, and the government should live up to its commitment to not use heavy weapons in the conflict zone.

    “Second, the government should give United Nations humanitarian teams access to the civilians who are trapped between the warring parties so that they can receive the immediate assistance necessary to save lives.

    “Third, the government should also allow the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross access to nearly 190,000 displaced people within Sri Lanka so that they can receive additional support that they need.”

    Colombo did none of these things. The government did not even reply. Instead, it intensified its mass bombardment from air, land and sea.

    Lest there's any doubt as to Colombo's intent;

    For months, video feeds from Sri Lanka’s unmanned spy planes guided the bombs and shells falling on 300,000 Tamil civilians corralled into a space the size of New York’s Central park - which the government mockingly termed a ‘Safe Zone’, before turning into a killing field.

    So, what basis can there be for any doubt?

  • Thank you anyway, Miliband

    “Any mention of my island home (no matter what British political scandal it may involve), is most welcome. For here is a chance for the world to stop its hurried turning, pause a moment, and remember that savage kingdom in the Indian Ocean. To read once more of the 100,000 Tamils thought to have died in a few balmy days last May.

    “Memory, that dignified defender of all human life, will not simply disappear. It is the archaeological remains of our collective existence. Those who bear witness can never forget until closure is achieved.”

    Roma Tearne, a scholar with Brookes University, discusses then British Foreign Secretary's David Miliband’s decision last year to focus on Tamils’ humanitarian plight in Sri Lanka.

  • Japan failing leadership test in Sri Lanka

    “Japan's studied refusal to add to the international pressure on the Sri Lankan government, while it continues to pour money into infrastructure development, could be construed as not simply more ineffectual checkbook diplomacy, but in fact a cynical investment in the regime.

    “The failure of Sri Lanka's most significant development assistance partner to lend weight to the widespread international pressure upon the Sri Lankan government to address the many significant humanitarian and human rights issues, and respond meaningfully to Tamil grievances, provides the Sri Lankan government with the necessary space to withstand the pressure."

    Dr. Craig Martin, a law scholar with both University of Baltimore and Osaka University,  discusses the contrast between Japan’s role in Sri Lanka and Tokyo’s declared ambitions to be a world “power for peace”.

    In October 2009, Japan’s stubborn support for Sri Lanka drew direct criticism from Human Rights Watch and other human rights groups, who protested:

    "To date, while other major donors and friends of Sri Lanka have expressed their concerns in public, Japan has not spoken out against the illegal detention of a quarter of a million [Tamil] civilians, nor has Japan called for accountability for serious violations of international humanitarian law by the government and the LTTE.

    "It is the time for Japan ... to break the silence and to make use of its unique relationship with Sri Lanka to uphold the basic rights of all Sri Lankans."

  • Doubts over Sri Lanka's pledges

    “Most of [Sri Lanka’s] deficit reduction plans hinge on turning around loss-making state ventures hampered by subsidy schemes, mismanagement and an infamously intractable corps of bureaucrats.”

    Public sector resistance to the government’s proposed economic reforms, and poor government follow-through, “could put the [proposed] changes at risk, and leave potential foreign investors still wary of Sri Lanka as a destination," Reuters reports.

    Sri Lanka's 1.3 million public employees are not pleased with what they see as an insufficient wage hike, which President Rajapaksa has been promising since he won office in 2005, the agency said.

    Sri Lanka's has a population of 21 million.

    See Reuters’ summary of ‘Key political risks to watch in Sri Lanka’

    Last week, reviewing Sri Lanka’s new budget, the Wall Street Journal also expressed scepticism. Noting President Rajapakse’s proclivity for a state-managed economy, the paper warned:

    "Given its recent track record Colombo should expect investors to sit on the sidelines until the government shows it's serious about reform"

    See also the analysis by Joseph Sternberg, the WSJ's Business Asia editor, here.

  • Loyal defender of Sri Lanka’s realm

    It isn’t surprising that the only British politician who will be meeting Sri Lanka's President Mahinda Rajapakse during his controversial visit to the UK this week is Defence Secretary
    Liam Fox.

    Amid a storm of outrage and calls this week by Amnesty International for Britain to pursue war crimes prosecutions against Sri Lankan leaders, the Defence Secretary is going to meet President Rajapakse “in a private capacity”.

    "This reflects Dr Fox's longstanding interest in Sri Lanka and his interest in, and commitment to peace and reconciliation there," a spokesman for Fox told The Guardian newspaper.

    A closer look at Dr. Fox's long-standing engagement with Sri Lanka suggests otherwise.

    Indeed, Dr. Fox has long been a defender of the Sri Lankan regime, despite the mounting evidence of Colombo’s war crimes and atrocities, and despite his leader, Prime Minister David Cameron also backing an international investigation into these.

    Sri Lanka funded

    Dr. Fox is so close to the Sri Lankan government, he visited the South Asian island three times last year – at Sri Lanka’s expense – even as international outrage mounted over the alleged war crimes, and the internment of hundreds of thousands of Tamils in militarised camps.

    Of these and two other recent trips to Sri Lanka, three were paid for fully by the Sri Lankan government.

    The other two are registered as paid for by an organisation calling itself the 'Sri Lankan Development Trust'. A search on Google Tuesday produced no links at all to this entity.

    And Dr. Fox's visits were not 'peace' initiatives.

    His November 2009 visit, for example, was to attend the National Convention of Rajapakse’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).

    His Conservative party was not in government. Neither did he meet any elected Tamil representatives during his visits.

    During a BBC investigation in March this year into British MPs accepting junkets paid for by foreign governments, Dr. Fox's trips were highlighted as breaches of Parliamentary rules relating to MPs declaring overseas trips paid for by foreign governments when speaking on those countries.

    For example, soon after returning from his November 2009 trip, Dr. Fox spoke in the House of Commons debate on foreign and defence affairs

    Defending Sri Lanka

    Even as a demands for actions against Sri Lanka’s war crimes and ongoing repression were growing stronger in the international community, Dr. Fox defended the Rajapakse regime.

    “As members of the European Union, we have to be careful not to lecture too much or give too few incentives in a country that is beginning to move very much in the right direction,” he told Parliament.

    During that debate Dr. Fox neither declared he was at the Sri Lankan president's party's convention just the previous week, nor disclosed the source of funding for his trip.

    This was not the first time Dr. Fox had discussed Sri Lanka in parliament without making clear his material interest: the BBC said he had also done so on 30 April 2008.

    Responding to the BBC's report, he was contrite, but unrepentant, saying at the time "[I] recognise that when asking one question in 2008, I should have noted an interest and will be writing to the registrar to make this clear."

    During the debate in 2009, Dr. Fox cited a vague “long involvement in Sri Lanka” and again decided not declare his interests.

    That obfuscation echoes his dissembling this week with regards to meeting President Rajapaksa.

    Sri Lanka is not the only conflict of interest Dr. Fox failed to declare.

    According to The Times newspaper, whist he was Shadow Secretary of State for Defence, Dr. Fox accepted £50,000 from a defence firm donor.

  • More video of Sri Lanka war crimes

    Britain's Channel 4 News has obtained an extended video of war crimes, including sexual abuse, by Sri Lankan soldiers committed in the last days of the war.

    Since then, one of the murdered women seen naked and bound in the video has been identified: a journalist well known on to Tamil television viewers during the war.

    Amnesty International has called on Britain to examine the gathering evidence of war crimes to see if Sri Lankan officials, including President Mahinda Rajapakse, can be indicted on universal jurisdiction laws.

    See the shorter version of the video, first broadcast last year by Channel 4 News, here.

  • US embassy cables: Rajapaksa shares responsibility for 2009 massacres

    “There are no examples we know of a regime undertaking wholesale investigations of its own troops or senior officials for war crimes while that regime or government remained in power. In Sri Lanka this is further complicated by the fact that responsibility for many of the alleged crimes rests with the country's senior civilian and military leadership, including President Rajapaksa and his brothers and opposition candidate General Fonseka.”

    See the full text of a US Embassy cable of January 2010, released by Wikileaks to The Guardian newspaper here.

    The US cable also says Tamil political leaders in Sri Lanka fear for their lives if they demand accountability for war crimes, even though they want this eventually: TNA leader R. Sampanthan is quoted welcoming the international community - and especially the Diaspora's - efforts on the issue.

    Also, see related article by The Guardian here.

  • Sri Lanka’s fishy story

    After 32 consecutive years of losses, Sri Lanka's state-owned Fisheries Corporation announced this July it had made a profit. The explanation, inevitably, was ‘the end of the war’.

    But a close look suggests much more than that: a militarized and ethnicised monopoly in the making.

    For the past two decades, much of the island’s Northeastern waters were subject to government fishing restrictions violently enforced by the navy. The explanation was, of course, the threat posed by the LTTE’s naval wing.

    However, the Sea Tigers were first formed only in 1991 and grew only gradually to be able to challenge Sri Lanka’s navy – and then largely off the northern coasts.

    In any case, there have been no restrictions on fishing off the large Sinhala-dominated coast to the south and west. (Moreover, the Eastern province was declared ‘liberated’ by the government in early 2007.)

    Sinhala Only

    The real impact of Sri Lanka’s military-enforced restrictions has been to devastate and impoverish the Tamil fishing communities along the northeastern coasts – Sinhala fishermen, however, were able to fish at will in many ‘restricted’ areas, under the protection of naval gunboats.

    Moreover, during the armed conflict, Tamil fishing boats and coastal fishing villages were subject to repeated Sri Lankan naval and aerial bombardment, driving the inhabitants inland, and away from their livlihoods.

    Since the defeat of the LTTE in May 2009, Sinhala fishermen have also been fishing untrammeled in the northern waters, while Tamil fishermen there continue to endure restrictions, as well as ad hoc taxes - such as summary seizures of their catches by the local military.

    At the same time, the military is protecting the Sinhala fishermen’s monopoly by attacking fishing boats of  their competitors from neighboring Tamil Nadu.

    The practice began long ago alongside the harassment of Tamil fishermen in the Northeast. The resultant deaths and injuries have repeatedly been a source of diplomatic friction between Sri Lanka and India, featuring again in Indian foreign minister S. M. Krishna’s visit last week (see point 20 in the 7th joint commission’s statement).

    Indeed, though it is rarely highlighted, there are just as many Sinhala incursions into Indian waters (in search of tuna) as there Tamil Nadu incursions (in search of shrimp) into Sri Lankan waters, a practice - in theory a 'common understanding' by both countries (see page 10 and Appendix V of this study).

    However, these boats are owned by commercial interests and are seldom owned by fishermen.

    (Also, see V.Vivekanandan's conference paper on 'Crossing maritime borders' here).

    In short, Sri Lanka's occasional and much-publicized handing over of fishing equipment to Tamil fishing communities is intended to distract from the structural undermining of the Tamil fishing industry, and thereby preventing its revival.

    Tamil fishermen from Allipaddy flee Sri Lankan navy violence in 2006. Their evacuation was assisted by the UNHCR and international ceasefire monitors (SLMM). Photo, report TamilNet.

    Monopoly transfer

    Meanwhile, the high price of fish in Sri Lanka has to do with government policy: fish is taxed at 40 percent. Even canned fish is heavily taxed.

    Moreover, the real driver behind the state-owned corporation’s new profitability is something else: its taking over from the ‘middle-men’ who buy fishermen’s catches and sell for a profit to retailers.

    Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development Minister Rajitha Senaratne this week vowed to put an end to this ‘control’ of the fish market by ‘intermediaries’.

    “The intermediaries buy one kilogram of fish at Rs 100, but by the time it reaches the hands of the consumers, the price has increased to Rs 500,” he said.

    “Neither fishermen nor consumers benefit from this," he claimed. "We will not let this happen for too long.”

    Apparently, the state would be better placed to distribute the catches taken off fishermen – whom, the minister said, wouldn’t see any difference: “reduced fish prices are not going to affect fishermen.”

    In anticipation of its strengthened monopoly, the State Corporation is planning to open 250 outlets across the country, from 64 at present.

    Markets – with a twist

    And if the fishermen were not amenable to cheaper prices, Sri Lanka is working on another solution.

    “We will bring fish prices down by way of establishing our capacity with fish resources with the Fisheries Corporation,” Dr. Senaratne said.

    In other words, the state-owned corporation’s own boats will be going to sea.

    “The corporation is waiting to get a fleet of over 1,000 multi-day fishing vessels in keeping with an Agreement signed between the Fisheries Ministry and two foreign business companies.”

    The fishermen need not worry, because he promises look after them: “every fishing family will get insurance, a pension, scholarships for their children and houses under a Welfare scheme the ministry would introduce”.

    Not that the state has abandoned market principles – when it comes to foreign consumers that is: the Ministry of Fisheries has decided to grant state licenses for Saudi Arabia to fish in Sri Lankan waters (see also here).

    400 Saudi boats are to arrive soon to engage in deep sea fishing. Saudi Arabia has agreed to pay 20% of the harvest to the Sri Lankan state as royalty: half free, half at one dollar a kilo.

  • Why Rajapakse’s case is different

    “The Oxford Union has in the past faced criticism for inviting other controversial speakers also known for their racist views. However, President Rajapakse is in a different position from [far right leader] Nick Griffin or [Holocaust denier] David Irving.

    “These previous speakers live in countries with a free and independent media and the rule of law. They could not therefore use the Oxford Union as a means of propagating unchallenged, noxious views or indeed as a platform for a campaign of concealment.

    “However, President Rajapakse has crushed free speech in his own country and done his best to conceal from international attention the grave crimes committed in the Tamil speaking areas.”

    Sixteen Tamil university societies wrote earlier this month, via the Tamil Youth Organisation (TYO), to the Oxford Union over its controversial invitation to Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse. They did not get a response.

    The university Tamil societies are those of Cambridge, Nottingham, King’s College London, Kingston, Cardiff, St. Georges, Westminister, Hertfordshire, Southampton, Queen Mary, Middlesex, Brunel, Greenwich, Imperial College, Central London, and City.

    A reader's query to the the University of Oxford, meanwhile, produced this response:

    "The Oxford Union is an independent debating society. Although most of its members are current or former Oxford students, it is not part of the University of Oxford. It has its own funding sources and premises, and the University does not have jurisdiction over its events."

  • Sri Lanka might — but probably won't

    “Would Sri Lanka be better off wagering on the intelligence of President Rajapakse and his relatively small circle, or on the creativity and hard work of a broader entrepreneurial class? The fact that foreign direct investment, and domestic long-term investment money, is sitting on its hands a year and a half after the war is a sign of which side of that bet the market is taking.”

    Joseph Sternberg, editor of the Wall Street Journal’s Business Asia column, examines Sri Lanka’s economic prospects. (See also).

  • Jaffna and the world

    This is what India’s External Affairs minister S. M. Krishna said Saturday in his speech at the opening of the Indian consulate in Jaffna:

    “Over centuries, Jaffna has always stood at the crossroads of history, culture and religion, kings and kingdoms, trade and commerce, and arts, dance and literature. Jaffna port was on the main sea route of its times. … It is, therefore, natural that when India decided to establish a Consulate General, Jaffna was a logical, almost inevitable, place for such a presence.

    “There must be several in this audience who would have seen the days when there was a direct flight from Palaly to Trichy and a ferry service from Talaimannar to Rameswaram. It is possible that some among you may even have gone off to Chennai – Madras as it was called – only to catch a movie. It’s time to revive those links.”

    This is what Tamil Guardian argued in our editorial of 02 June, 2010:

    “Before Sinhala domination began in the late 1940s, the Tamil homeland had been connected in myriad ways to global flows for millennia. Quite apart from the time of South India-based imperial networks, even during Western colonial rule the Northeast was well connected to the rest of the subcontinent and other parts of the world.

    Since the island’s independence from Britain, however, the Sinhala-dominated state has sought not only to concentrate power in the South, but also to isolate the Northeast, making Colombo the sole gateway between the world and the Tamil homeland.

    Unless the Sinhala stranglehold on the Northeast is first broken, the Tamils will continue to be largely – and deliberately - excluded from global economic flows.”

  • ‘Ethnocracy’?

    Out of the 55 Secretaries, the senior-most civil servants of Sri Lanka’s ministries, appointed this week, one was a Tamil, another a Muslim; the rest were Sinhalese.

    Recruitment of young Tamils or Muslims into the civil service has been negligible over the past several years; this year there were none.

    This is what Tamils mean by 'the Sinhala state'.

    The full list of newly appointed Secretaries - and what qualified the lone Tamil for the job - is available here.

    On a related note, it’s worth recalling how – and when – Sri Lanka’s armed forces became mono-ethnic.

    Prof. Brian Blodgett, Director of the History and Military Studies Programs for the American Public University, published a study of Sri Lanka’s military in 2004. In it he notes how,

    “in 1962, a policy of recruiting only from the Sinhalese Buddhist community was instituted. This was the beginning of an ethnically pure army.”

    Prof. Stanley Tambiah of Harvard University published a book length comment, ‘Ethnic Fratricide and the Dismantling of Democracy’, just two years after Sri Lanka’s conflict began. In it he noted,

    “[Today, in 1986] the armed forces are filled with Sinhalese and the Tamils are excluded from serving in them. … There has been virtually no recruitment of Tamils into the armed forces, and very little into the police force, for nearly thirty years.”

  • Sri Lanka’s foreign debt less attractive than even Greece's

    So much for Colombo's claim of 'post-war optimism' amongst foreign investors.

    Sri Lanka’s long term sovereign debt is presently rated as less attractive to foreign creditors than that of Greece, which triggered another international financial crisis earlier this year after being caught concealing a yawning budget deficit.

    Standard & Poor’s, the debt rating agency, has given Greece’s foreign debt an overall rating of BB while Sri Lanka scores B+.

    According to the agency’s website, a rating of B is understood as more vulnerable to debt default than BB. The +/-  signs indicate a state's relative standing within the overall ‘B’ category.

    S&P's raised Sri Lanka’s debt rating in September this year from B to B+ primarily on the condition Colombo sticks to the IMF’s reform programme, the LBO reported.

    Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is amongst the world's heaviest borrowers.

    "An obligation rated 'B' is more vulnerable to nonpayment than obligations rated 'BB', but the obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. Adverse business, financial, or economic conditions will likely impair the obligor's capacity or willingness to meet its financial commitment on the obligation," Standard & Poor’s explains.

    Although the category BB also indicated vulnerability to ‘adverse business, financial or economic conditions’ this only affected the sovereign’s ‘capacity’ to meet repayments. In contrast Sri Lanka’s B rating indicated that the government’s ‘capacity or willingness’ to meet repayments would be affected by adverse conditions.

    As with Sri Lanka in June 2009, Greece had to turn to the IMF and the EU for a bailout in April this year because it could no longer raise credit on the international markets to cover the shortfall between its expenditure and its revenue.

    However, Greece has been able to more rapidly recover its debt worthiness by implementing stringent IMF and EU backed reforms. Meanwhile Sri Lanka’s recent budget failed to excite investor confidence.

    In an editorial that closely followed Sri Lanka’s budget announcement, the Wall Street Journal warned that despite the rhetoric of reform, investors would not be impressed until there was real change.

    "Yet the real test will be in the implementation, and given its recent track record Colombo should expect investors to sit on the sidelines until the government shows it's serious about reform" the paper said.

    While Albania, Angloa and Belarus share Sri Lanka's B+ rating, Argentina and Kenya are rated lower at B, with Ecuador and Fiji amongst the sovereigns rated at B-.

    The question is whether Sri Lanka will continue with the economic reforms on which the debt rating is conditional.

    “The stable rating outlook reflects our expectation of swift progress in addressing structural fiscal weaknesses mostly on the revenue side and the strong growth prospects,” LBO quoted S&P’s analyst Agost Benard as stating.

    The agency warned, however, that the rating may be lowered in the event of substantial deviation from the IMF programme, or if expectations on recovery in Sri Lanka's growth prospects and revenue improvements disappoint, the LBO reported.

  • ‘Britain must take the lead on investigating Sri Lanka war crimes’

    “At first the UK government applauded the establishment of [Sri Lanka’s] LLRC, even though the deficiencies in the scope of its mandate and in its processes were evident from the outset. … The EU, unlike the UK, was quicker to see through this farce. … Fortunately the UK's position is now shifting. [However] words should translate into further action … leading to an independent international inquiry.”

    “The UK is uniquely placed to take the lead on refusing to settle for the whitewash that the Sri Lankan government is putting forward, and to demand more.”

    Elaine Pearson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Asia division, discusses Britain’s responsibility in accountability for Sri Lanka’s war crimes.

  • Dodgy numbers

    The economic statistics that Sri Lanka publishes can’t be trusted.

    For example, in 2009 Sri Lanka claimed the construction industry ‘grew’ – despite falling cement volumes and a plunging housing market.

    Sri Lanka’s claimed drop in inflation, meanwhile, came after a telling change in the index being tracked, LBO reports.

    Inflation reduced?

    The government changed the Colombo Consumer Price Index when inflation hit 29.9 percent. At the time a country-wide index was also completely suppressed.

    However, the new price index is missing a standard international (COICOP -classification of individual consumption by purpose) expenditure category - it ignores alcohol and tobacco, which is frequently taxed by the government.

    By frequently changing the consumption basket of an inflation index, a state can deceive citizens by showing stable 'inflation', despite steeply falling living standards.

    US economists have labeled the phenomenon as 'moving from beef to dogfood'.

    In Sri Lanka, the share of food in total consumption is 40%.

    Food prices have soared, amid autarkic agriculture and tax policies. The government is waging war on (imported) wheat.  

    The price of poultry in Sri Lanka is higher than in the United States.

    And while the consumption of high-quality rice is falling, while low-quality rice is increasing, figures show.

    Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal says average inflation this year will be less than 6 percent and the average rate would be 5 percent or less in 2011.

    Poverty falling?

    Meanwhile, Sri Lanka claimed this month that poverty has - suddenly - fallen to 7.6 percent from an earlier 15.2 percent.

    But, firstly, the survey cited excluded data from the war-torn Tamil districts in the north: Jaffna, Mannar, Kilinochchi and Mulaithivu.

    And, secondly, other government data indicated that real incomes in the island have fallen due to high inflation and people are also eating less due to high prices.

    The doubts were underlined last week by economist and opposition MP, Harsha de Silva, who asked how poverty could come down so sharply if real incomes fell and food prices rose in the past few years.

    “If poverty is halved, why are people not eating?,” he asked.

     

Subscribe to Tamil Affairs