“Allow us to speak. We are not terrorists. What is happening in Sri Lanka is genocide”: These were the voices of the thousands of Eelam Tamil demonstrators who braved defying a government ban and gathered in Paris on October 22.

 

Reflecting on his experience, Mr Somasundaram Sarveswaran, a participant said what is abominable that goes against all norms of civilization is silencing the civilian voice.

 

"The Tamil national cause and the struggle against genocide of a people are not terrorist issues. There is a tendency today to look at everything related to Tamil as terrorism. This is why we earnestly look upon the leaders of Tamil Nadu to secure us our righteous global space as a priority, by recognizing the Tamil right to self-determination in the Island of Sri Lanka," he said.

 

Mr. Sarveswaran made all his way, 400 km from Lyon to Paris, with his wife and two children to take part in the demonstration, without knowing that the French Police had declined permission to the demonstration.

 

France, which has nearly 100,000 Tamils who respect the country's law, was silent against the killings of Eelam Tamils in their homeland, he charged.

 

The French government was ignoring the investigation of 17 Tamil speaking humanitarian workers of the French NGO Action Contre La Faim (ACF), who were allegedly massacred by the Sri Lankan forces in Muthur in Trincomalee, he said.

 

A parade was supposed to go on from Place de la Republic to Place de la Bastille Sunday the 19th of October from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

 

This was organized by a member of the French political party Nouveau Centre in which several Tamils are active members.

 

But in the last minute the French Police refused permission for the parade, without citing reasons for the refusal.

 

The participants were waiting for this day to speak out to the French government, which holds the current Presidency of the European Union, about the ongoing genocide in Sri Lanka against the Tamil people: aerial bombings, artillery attacks against the civilians and widespread human rights abuses against Tamils all over the island of Sri Lanka.

 

The refusal turned into deep frustration and anger that demonstrators decided to get to the streets, against being treated as 'terrorists' and demanded for their right to express.

 

Thousands gathered at Place de la Bastille, a symbolic premises of France, where the French revolution started.

 

People displayed placards saying 'We are not Terrorists ', 'Give us the right of expression', and 'There is a genocide going on against our Families in Sri Lanka.'

 

The riot police cordoned off and blocked the demonstrators from moving. Everyone sat down and started shouting slogans.

 

"There was another demonstration of a French trade union of teachers going on in the same venue at that time. Seeing our plight, they joined us shouting at the French police and even provided space for a representative of us to speak on their stage," a participant said.

Hundreds of French Tamils in the east of France assembled in front of the European Parliment in Strasbourg between 3:30 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. on October 24, and demonstrated against the killing of Tamils, and aerial bombardment in the civilian settlements in the North East.

 

The demonstrators carried pictures of civilians killed by aerial bombings and artillery attacks.

 

The Mayor of Strasbourg, represented by the Deputy Mayor, Mr Eric Elkouby, showed his support for the demonstration by standing amidst the protesters under heavy rain.

 

Condemning the silence of the International Community while genocide is being perpetrated against the Tamils, the protesters said the war against terror has turned victims into terrorists.

 

The protesters urged the European Community to organize transport of food and medical supplies to Vanni residents, and to lead the world community in finding a negotiated political settlement for the Sri Lanka conflict.

 

People carried placards and shouted slogans condemning the genocidal crimes of the Sri Lanka state against the Tamil people.

 

Mr Robert Evans, President of the European Parliament's South Asia's group, accompanied by Mrs Jean Lambert, another member of this group, met the protesters and encouraged them in their effort to publicize the atrocities of the State, and added that they knew the grave situation in Vanni.

 

They said that they were watching closely the developing situation in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka defiantly refused to allow a European Union (EU) investigation into rights abuses callit an "infringement of Sri Lanka's sovereignty, self respect and dignity', and announced plans to support the garment industry financially if existing trade concessions are not renewed by EU.

The EU recently warned it may not renew the GSP Plus (Generalised System of Preferences) trade scheme after it expires in December because of continuing human rights abuses stemming from Sri Lanka's civil war.

 

The EU had asked to send an investigating team to ensure Sri Lanka was complying with human rights standards.

 

"What the cabinet has decided is not to agree with investigations that are required by the EU to renew GSP Plus," Minister of Export Development and International Trade G.L. Peiris told reporters at a press conference held on Monday, October 20, at the Central Bank to brief the media on the GSP Plus Scheme.

 

According to the minister, the Government will not betray Sri Lanka's sovereignty to obtain economic benefits from other countries.

 

"The Cabinet has decided to reject the investigation and we have instructed our Ambassador in Brussels to inform relevant authorities on our decision. We are ready for open discussions with the Commission regarding the issue,"

 

Many in the island's garment and textile industry, which employs hundreds of thousands of mostly rural poor, fear a downturn if the special trade terms are axed.

 

However Peiris said the effect would be limited.

 

"We only get $150 million from GSP Plus. We are not ready to betray our country through this investigating," Pieris said.

 

"We should not betray our dignity and respect for US$ 150 million. We have to develop our strength and resources. In every sense we have capabilities to fulfil our task.”

At the same press conference, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka announced the government would provide a subsidy to offset any shock the loss of the concession may cause in an industry that in 2007 was its top foreign exchange source.

 

"The government has decided to provide a subsidy equal to the total GSP Plus concession of $150 million to the garment industry," Cabraal told reporters.

 

GSP Plus benefits

 

GSP Plus is an EU trade concession that has helped Sri Lanka's garment industry, its top foreign exchange earner last year, to boost export revenue since mid-2005.

 

The trade scheme helped Sri Lanka net a record $2.9 billion from EU markets last year, 37.5 percent of total export income.

 

Garments last year were the country's top source of foreign exchange followed by remittances of $2.5 billion and tea export earnings, which brought in $1 billion.

 

In 2007, Sri Lanka exported US$ 2.8 billion worth of products to the EU.

Around US$ 1.4 billion of this was apparels, of which the majority was exported under the GSP. In other words, apparels sector is the biggest beneficiary of the GSP, though other sectors like fisheries and industrial products also use the facility. Assuming that the tax concession granted was around 10% across the board - the EU has said it’s between eight and 18 per cent - the benefit accrued by the apparel industry is roughly around US$ 150 million. The amount Sri Lanka is willing to offer as a relief measure if GSP Plus is lost.

 

Human Rights

 

The proposed EU probe is widely seen by political analysts as a tool to get the government to address alleged human rights abuses and lack of humanitarian help for thousands of civilians stranded in northern Sri Lanka where Tamil rebels are fighting to save their last strongholds.

In July, the EU said Sri Lanka's failure to address human rights concerns, including a "frightening" number of abductions, could cost it the lucrative concession.

 

Rights groups have reported hundreds of abductions, disappearances and killings blamed on government security forces and Tamil Tiger rebels since a ceasefire in the 25-year-old civil war evaporated in 2006.

 

The U.S., Britain, Germany and many western nations have raised concerns over a major humanitarian crisis in the northern Vanni region where the military says it is close to capturing the town of Kilinochchi, the last bastion of the Tamil Tigers.

The situation worsened last month when all international humanitarian agencies were ordered to leave the area. Only government supplies through local level officials are going through for thousands of people who have been displaced.

“We are following closely Sri Lanka’s compliance with all relevant international conventions, including the UN human rights conventions. The Commission pays very close attention to the proper application of the GSP system and, therefore, whenever the Commission receives information about non-compliance with the GSP Plus eligibility criteria it takes this very seriously.” an EU official told BBC recently.

“According to the GSP Regulation, if information received by the Commission points to possible non compliance with the GSP Plus criteria and gives sufficient ground for an investigation, the Commission shall initiate such an investigation and publish a notice announcing it. The Commission notifies the beneficiary country concerned.”

“If the country concerned does not cooperate, the Commission still has to continue the investigation and make the findings on the basis of the facts available. During the investigation the Commission invites all interested parties to make their views known in writing and provides the country under investigation with every opportunity to cooperate in the investigation.”

“The new GSP Regulation 2009-2011 envisages that a country under a GSP Plus investigation continues to benefit from the GSP Plus prefrences until the date of conclusion of such investigation. The final decision on the eligibility of a country under investigation for the GSP Plus 2009-2011 is suspended until the end of the investigation.”

 

EU response

 

Neil Kearney, general secretary of the Brussels-based International Textiles Garments and Leather Workers' Federation (ITGLWF), while visiting Colombo last month, told IPS that the EU position over a new agreement over GSP Plus is subject to rules and regulations governing human rights and worker rights.

 

"The EU will want to assess how far Sri Lanka has progressed in this field," he said.

He further added it was unfortunate that 'statements' (at that time) by some Sri Lankan ministers, that the country would not accept a EU mission to study these aspects, and that Sri Lanka prefers to lose the concessions rather than allow such a mission, complicated matters.

"I find this extremely shortsighted as a halt to these concessions would affect thousands of workers and their dependants. Workers in the transport, logistics and support services in the industry will be affected," Kearney said.

SL definace

 

However, Sri Lanka has taken a hostile attitude towards the EU in relation to GSP Plus, even though it is the beneficiary of the trade concessions.

 

Last month, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama told Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations, in New York that an EU investigation is “unnecessary and inappropriate”.

 

He insisted that government’s response to any proposed EU action on extending GSP Plus will take into consideration “the country’s national priorities and interests which are protection of the territorial integrity and fight against separatism, eradication of terrorism, restoring democracy and empowering the people”.

 

Earlier this month, Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to Brussels Ravinatha Ariyasinghe lashed out at Member of the European Parliament Robert Evans (from UK) after he presented a report on Sri Lanka that Ariyasinghe said was “replete with unsubstantiated allegations, deliberate distortions and blatant falsehoods.” The document had been prepared after a July visit to Sri Lanka by Evans.

This personal attack came after Benita Ferrero-Waldner released an open letter to Sri Lankan media rejecting personal attacks against the EC’s former Head of Delegation in Colombo Ambassador Julian Wilson. Ferrero-Waldner has repeatedly made strong statements about the situation in Sri Lanka, particularly with regards to humanitarian issues.

Garment industry concerned

 

Despite the bravado, the impact on Sri Lanka’s image of the GSP being withdrawn is serious - and seriously negative. Investor confidence is already low. With Europe becoming increasingly rights conscious, buyers are likely to think twice before associating themselves with a country rejected by the EU.

 

Whilst the Sri Lankan government is unconcerned, the garment industry is worried.

 

Trade unions have said the absence of EU trade concessions could impact thousands of garment workers and their families.

Anton Marcus, general secretary of the Free Trade Zones and General Services Employees' Union, said that if Sri Lanka loses the GSP Plus the impact will be on the workers and their families.

"Many factories will close down," he said.

 

Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF) officials say they are hopeful the rescue package of 150 million dollars will act as a buffer against any fallout on industries that benefit from the EU concessions.

“The government doesn’t want to compromise Sri Lanka’s sovereignty for 150 million dollars when they can perhaps subsidise the industry with a syndicated loan,” said a labour union source.

 

“Still, there’s a question of how the government will provide these benefits. Is it by waiving off the electricity cost of garment factories, or some such thing? Besides, where will the money come from?”

The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the bloodiest battle with the largest battlefield casualties in the history of conventional warfare. Under a carefully worked out plan, the Soviet Army inveigled an advancing and over-confident Nazi Army into Stalingrad and then inflicted severe casualties on the Nazi Army. Many of those Nazi soldiers whom the Soviet Army could not kill were killed by "Gen.Winter". The entire Sixth Army of the Nazis was trapped by the Soviet troops with the help of "Gen.Winter" and destroyed.

As the battle began on July 17, 1942, the Nazi Disinformation machine worked overtime to tell an unsuspecting German people that the fall of Stalingrad and the collapse of the Soviet Army were imminent. The German people waited with bated breath for the news of the fall. "Within two days", they were told. Two days became two weeks. Two weeks became two months. Two months became seven months. The battle ended disastrously for the Nazis on February 2, 1943. This marked the beginning of the end of the Nazi dreams in the Second World War.

Is one seeing a mini version of Stalingrad in the battle for Kilinochchi, the current headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)? It is difficult to say on the basis of the scanty information available from the battle front. From even this scanty information, two things are clear: Firstly, the Sri Lankan Army, which senses victory against the LTTE, has been doing well, but not as well as it claims to be. Secondly, the LTTE has been doing badly, but not as badly as projected to be by the disinformation machine of the Sri Lankan Army . The LTTE has shown that there is still a lot of fight left in it-- and a lot of intelligence and innovative thinking.

But intelligence and innovative thinking alone cannot win wars without resources and the wherewithal. The LTTE is deficient on both counts. But it has shown itself to be as resilient as the Taliban in Afghanistan and as fiercely-motivated. In 2003, the Americans thought and claimed that they had finished the Taliban once and for all. Their facile assumptions proved to be wrong. The Taliban came back--as if it has risen from its much-proclaimed grave-- and has been moving forward relentlessly. Neither air strikes by the most powerful Air Force in the world nor heavy artillery strikes by the most powerful Army in the world have been able to stop its advance. Reluctantly, senior NATO military commanders in Afghanistasn have started admitting that the war against the Taliban is unwinnable and that one has to search for a political solution with neither victory nor defeat for either side. It has not only become unwinnable unless the Taliban commits some serious tactical mistakes, but is also likely to become increasingly unaffordable thanks to the financial and economic melt-down in the US and the rest of the world.

The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more months, a prolonged war against the LTTE could become as unwinnable and as unaffordable for the rulers of Sri Lanka as a prolonged war against the Taliban for the NATO powers. The rulers of Sri Lanka are living in a fool's paradise if they think that China and Pakistan would come to their rescue if the government of India stops assisting them under pressure from public opinion in Tamil Nadu. The Pakistani economy is on the verge of a collapse. Even the Chinese were reluctant to help out their time-tested friend as they call Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari found to his dismay when he visited China recently. The Pakistan Army is reeling under one set-back after another inflicted on it by the Taliban.To think that the Pakistan Army would rush to Sri Lanka to spite India would be the height of stupidity.

The Chinese, who are increasingly worried over the impact of the recession in the US on their manufacturing industries, which are heavily dependent on the US market, are hugging tight their foreign exchange holdings. They were reluctant to make any definitive commitment of help to Zardari. They are even showing a decline of interest in further developing the Gwadar port project. In a world beset with the most serious economic crisis it has known since the Great Depression of the 1930s, everybody, including China, is interested in saving every dollar and cent he can. Nobody wants a foreign adventure, which might drain off their depleting resources. If the Sri Lankan Army thinks that China would try to rush in if India stops helping, it is in for a disappointment.

The LTTE is calculating that if it can keep fighting against the Sri Lankan Army for some more weeks, "Gen.Monsoon" and "Gen.Recession" could put an end to the pipedreams of the Sri Lankan Army of a definitive victory over the LTTE.

Will its calculations prove right or will they be belied? Whatever happens, one thing seems likely-- there is going to be no definitive victory or no definitive defeat for either side in the on-going war.

 

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) fighters continued to offer heavy resistance in the Vanni battle fronts inflicting heavy casualty to the Sri Lankan forces and stalling the advancement of troops towards Kilinochchi.

At least 161 soldiers were killed and 367 soldiers were wounded in four separate attempts by the military to breach LTTE defences in Vanni, in October alone.

 

In the latest attempt to break through LTTE defences south west of Kilinochchi, around Akkaraayankulam, more than 80 Sri Lankan Army (SLA) soldiers were killed and 200 sustained injuries, according to informed sources in Colombo.

 

Sri Lanka admitted to heavy casualties but put its losses at 33 dead and 48 injured.

 

"During these clashes on the weekend, 33 soldiers were reported killed in action, 48 injured and three others were reported missing," a statement on the ministry's website said.

The multi-pronged Sri Lankan offensive which was launched on Saturday October 18 lasted for four days.

 

A similar attempt a week earlier, on Sunday October 12, resulted in more than 60 SLA soldiers being wounded.

 

That SLA advance was thwarted after 6 hours of heavy fighting, from 10:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m., the LTTE said.

The same day, SLA soldiers attempting to enter into LTTE territory in southern Mullaiththeevu district from several points in Thannimurippu and Manalaaru with artillery and Multi-barrel Rocket Launcher fire support were also met with heavy LTTE resistance.

 

The SLA offensive was beaten back after 12 hour of fierce fighting with at least 19 SLA soldiers killed and more than 35 injured.

 

The previous week also the military suffered heavy casualties, when on Tuesday October 7, SLA attempted to advance on three fronts in southern Kilinochchi district.

 

26 SLA soldiers were killed in Akkaraayan - Murikandi sector, 16 in Vanni Vizhaangkulam and 20 in Vannearikkulam.

 

49 SLA soldiers were wounded in Akkaraayan and 23 in Vanni Vizhaangkulam. The SLA offensive units were pushed back in all three fronts.

 

Rain, resistance blamed

 

The increased resistance by LTTE, as evidenced by the high casualties suffered by SLA in recent weeks, is in sharp contrast to an earlier LTTE fallback that enabled troops to move rapidly into LTTE territory.

 

Encouraged by the limited resistance offered by the LTTE in previous months, Sri Lankan forces had banked on a quick fall of Kilinochchi, the LTTE's administrative capital, 330 kilometres north of Colombo.

 

However, the military is bogged down in the same area for the past 2 months with the LTTE digging in, army stretching to defend territory already seized, and poor weather hampering military operations.

'Troops operating in the south of Kilinochchi are making progress, though they have not shown a rapid progress within the past few days,' said defence analyst Ranil Wijayapala in the state-run Daily News.

He blamed adverse weather, with heavy rains currently lashing the north.

'With the rapid advance last month, the military is also forced to tie down a lot of soldiers to protect areas newly captured from the Tigers,' a military officer who declined to be named said.

Military sources said increased air attacks have failed to soften up Tiger defences for ground troops to smash through.

When the Sri Lankan forces reached Naachikudah in Mannaar district and Akkraayankulam in Kilinochchi district in early September, they encountered an elaborate trench line running several kilometers from Naachikudah to Akkarayankulam. Since then repeated offensives by the SLA to break through the LTTE defences have failed.

 

Casualties censored

 

Throughout this military campaign the Sri Lankan defence establishment has highly exaggerated LTTE casualties whilst down playing its own.

For the past year or so, the Sri Lankan Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickramanayake has been providing military casualty details to the Sri Lankan parliament on a monthly basis. Figures tabled in parliament so far show 1,099 soldiers were killed in the first nine months of 2008, with September seeing the highest number of fatalities -- 200 killed and 997 wounded.

Almost 7,000 soldiers were wounded in the first nine months of the year and 396 civilians were killed, according to parliamentary records.

 

However, following heavy casualties the military has suffered in recent weeks, on Friday October 24, the Sri Lankan defence ministry announced its decision to censor casualty figures coming out of the northern battle fields.

The defence ministry said that it decided to “suspend the reporting of all casualty figures in relation to the ongoing counter terrorist operation in Wanni. This is in consideration of the continuing advance of the security forces there and the need for operational security, whereby such reportage may impede the successful accomplishment of the mission.”

 

While the Tigers have not been issuing battle-specific casualty details of their side on a daily basis, they were maintaining reliable periodic updates of their casualties through their Secretariat for War Heroes, which issues periodic updates.

 

In the contrary, the Sri Lankan government officials were providing conflicting reports of both daily and monthly updates, which has come under criticism by the media and the opposition parties.

Meanwhile, informed military sources in Colombo said that the sections of the military viewed the practice as counter-productive since the soldiers in the battlefied have been discouraged by the political censorship on their sacrifices.

A statement released by the political wing of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Ampaarai district stated that 65 Sri Lankan soldiers ,including 45 Special Task Force members, were killed and another 98 wounded in attacks carried out by LTTE in the district in past 75 days.

 

The statement released on Friday, October 24, accused the Sri Lankan government of ‘Sinhalisation’ of the district and urged Tamil and Muslim civilians in the district to join hands in supporting the liberation struggle.

Sea Tigers, the sea faring arm of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) attacked two supply ships belonging to Sri Lanka inside high security zone, near a naval harbour in northern Jaffna peninsula, sinking one ship and heavily damaging the other.

 

Sri Lankan ships MV Nimalawa and MV Ruhunuwa which transport military and other supplies from south to Jaffna came under a predawn Black Tiger attack on Wednesday, October 22, in the seas off Kankeasnthurai harbour.

 

The Sea Tiger mission was led by Black Sea Tiger Lt. Col. Ilakkiyaa, the deputy commander of the Sea Tigers' female wing, who sacrificed her life with Black Sea Tiger Commando Lt. Col. Kuperan, LTTE officials told TamilNet.

 

The Sea Tigers also fought a sea battle with naval units defending the port of Kankesanthurai.

 

Shells launched from the seas off Vadamaraadchi during the clashes following the attack on ships, exploded near a civilian dwelling in Mallaakam seriously injuring a couple, according to the same sources.

"One of the merchant vessels -- MV Nimalawa -- is sinking and the other vessel was damaged," a defence official who declined to be named told AFP following the attack.

 

According to Sri Lankan newspaper, Sunday times, the intelligence authorities concerned with how the Sea Tigers managed to infiltrate the naval cordon to reach Kankesanthurai, a key point in the high security zone in the sea.

"The fact that they succeeded in infiltrating a high security zone in the seas, moving freely for a long distance to carry out an attack, is very worrying. It only underscores the need for further measures to make the HSZ (High Security Zone) foolproof," the paper said quoting an intelligence source.

Jaffna is controlled by government forces, but cut off from the rest of the island by LTTE-held territory and supplied entirely by sea or air.

 

The defence ministry painted the attack as "another cowardly attempt by the terrorists to deny essential supplies to the civilians living in war-affected areas."

 

However, observers pointed out Sri Lanka’s practice of using civilian cargo ships to supply arms to the 40,000 military personnel occupying Jaffna.

 

Activities of Kaangkeasanthurai harbour came to a halt on Wednesday following the early morning Sea Tiger attack, sources in Vadamaraadchi said.

 

Sri Lanka Army (SLA) and Sri Lanka Navy (SLN) jointly searched villages east and west of Kaangkeasanthurai harbour, and fishing boats in the seas off the same coastline, sources added.

 

Harbour workers were not permitted to go the harbour at the SLA entry check post at Thellippalai. Lorries that transport goods from the harbour also were not allowed access to the harbour.

In the ongoing battle in Vanni, the LTTE's conventional defence strategy appears to be based upon a series of strong points with bunds and ditches stretching for miles between them. The bunds along the expected axes of advance have been constructed to slow down the advancing troops and attack them at selected points when they try to break through the obstacle.  

In modern conventional warfare the technique has morphed into mobile defence based upon strong points that dominate the gaps between them with hard hitting armour based mobile teams. This technique is useful when a large area is to be defended by smaller number of troops as in the case of the LTTE. This strategy if successfully applied would lead to a lot of bloodletting and discourage advancing forces from launching the main offensive.

The LTTE had perhaps adopted defences based on strong points for this very reason. It was fighting against an opponent who outnumbered it by at least ten to one. On hindsight, last year the LTTE probably allowed a comparatively free run to the security forces to occupy areas south of road Vavuniya-Mannar along the Mannar coast so that the troops would be drawn into fighting the strong points further north. After that starting with Adampan in May 20008 there had been a series of LTTE strong points - big and small - forming layers of defences –Adampan-Nedunkandal-Andankulam, Madhu-Palamipiddi-Periyamadu, and so on.  

Col. R. Hariharan, (Retired)

 

The all-party meeting chaired by Tamil Nadu's (TN) Chief Minister M Karunanidhi on October 14 passed a resolution that MPs from the state would resign if the Centre failed to ensure a ceasefire in Sri Lanka (SL) in two weeks. Since current Indian perception of the ethnic conflict has been clouded by Rajiv Gandhi's assassination, it is instructive to review India's past involvement in Sri Lanka and future options.

 

The goal of India's SL policy since the 1950s was to prevent any hostile power getting a foothold in the neighbourhood. So, over the years, India pursued various policies - some of them at the expense of Sri Lankan Tamil interests - to placate the Sinhalese leadership. Even India's support to Tamil militant groups in the 1980s angered the Sinh-alese leadership. India's current policy towards the ethnic conflict is influenced by the fear that an independent Tamil Eelam will rekindle secessionist tendencies in TN. How-ever, this view is incorrect.

 

India's policy since 1991 has sought the military defeat of the LTTE for the latter's role in Rajiv Gandhi's assassination and the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) debacle. From the beginning, however, India's SL policy failed to appreciate the historical roots of the ethnic conflict, which can be traced back to the wars between the Tamil and Sinhala kingdoms during the past several centuries. The LTTE's conduct also has its share of problems. It has put an entire generation of Tamils through immense hardship. This bitter history makes rapprochement between the Sinhalese and Tamils almost impossible. Given these ground realities in Sri Lanka, what are India's options?

 

It is clear that India cannot afford to remain fixated on its past bitterness with the LTTE while crafting its response to the ethnic conflict. The current policy stagnation, besides exacerbating the difficulties of Sri Lankan Tamils, can also be detrimental to India's security. During the Cold War, there was some anxiety in India as Sri Lanka began building a closer relationship with the US. Such concerns are irrelevant now in the light of closer defence cooperation between the US and India. However, there is another potential threat to India's southern frontiers: China is already playing a major role in building ports and potential naval bases in some Indian Ocean littoral states.

 

India formally extracted concessions from SL through the 1987 peace accord - currently in tatters - that Colombo will not allow any external powers in a way detrimental to Indian interests. However, Lanka has been building parallel defence cooperation tracks with China and Pakistan and the island has been brimming with Chinese and Pakistani intelligence operatives. Yet, India has helped SL to maintain its territorial integrity. This could prove to be costly. India cannot allow this situation to persist while putting pressure on the LTTE and providing military assistance to SL. A credible case could be built that an independent Tamil Eelam will be - for ethnic, linguistic, and religious reasons - friendlier towards India than the Sinhalese dispensation in Colombo.

 

Although the LTTE is banned in some countries there is also a realisation that any solution ignoring the militant outfit will not be viable. India should review its current policy and exert pressure on SL to seek a political solution for the ethnic conflict. Some argue that India's current free trade agreement with SL will buy more influence among the Sinhalese leadership.

 

Unless India is able to lock SL in a broad bilateral security relationship, their leadership will have no qualms about allowing China or Pakistan to get a foothold. This is the real danger of India's current policy facilitating the military defeat of the LTTE. If India were to take a hard-nosed view of its interests, a subtle shift in its position on the LTTE will go a long way in safeguarding its strategic interests in the region besides securing the interests of ethnic Tamils in the island. The all-party resolution should provide the UPA an opportunity to do some introspection about its Sri Lanka policy.

 

TS Gopi Rethinaraj teaches at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. This is a modified version of an op-ed piece that appeared in the April 2008 issue of Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review

The only known successful ‘military’ solution to such problems in world history is to be found in the US, namely the genocide of the native Red Indians.

 

Most civilised nations would balk at such an approach, but short of that, a purely military solution to problems of ethnic minorities will and have always failed.

 

It is, therefore, a little surprising that many have begun to write the epitaph of LTTE and the cause of Tamil Eelam.

 

It must be clearly understood that the LTTE or V Pirapakaran are not the reason for the turmoil in Sri Lanka, but products of an ideology and circumstances.

 

As long as the cause and the conditions that caused the Tamil revolt exist, peace will be elusive, notwithstanding the claims of an imminent military victory.

 

As someone associated with the Sri Lankan conflict since 1988, I am dismayed at the repeated mistakes on part of all the principal actors in this sordid, blood soaked drama.

 

On its part the LTTE is being obdurate in sticking to the demand of ‘independence’ that can never become a reality since India does not support it.

 

On the Sri Lankan government’s part, the notion of national unity and integrity is equated with ‘unitary’ form of government, and a federal structure is considered an anathema. This has further legitimised the hard line position of the LTTE.

 

And finally India, a country that has a major stake in peace in Sri Lanka, has been shy of forcing the Lankan government to move in direction of federalism and autonomy for Tamil areas. Thus in this tragedy, there are only villains and no heroes.

 

The Background:

The Tamil-Sinhala rivalry is 'mother of old conflicts'.

 

The two sides trace their animosities to the battle between Tamil King Ellara (after whom Eelam is named) and the Sinhalese King Duttagamini in 167 (or 145) BC!

 

Obviously it was not a continuous conflict, and there were many periods of peace.

 

But it must be understood that in the perception of ordinary Tamils and Sinhalas, the conflict is very old.

 

Since the Buddhist revival of 1956-1957, Sri Lanka has become a 'Buddhist' State, much on the lines of many Islamic states.

 

But even worse, the law of the land denies equal opportunities to non-Sinhala citizens.

 

Many, specially Indian commentators, have flippantly 'advised' Tamils to accept Sri Lankan unity without realising that Sri Lanka is not a secular State like India, or is it a 'fair State' like the UK in terms of rule of law.

 

Thus there is a fundamental problem in the nature of the Sri Lankan State at the root of this conflict.

 

Sri Lanka is a plural society and multi-ethnic country.

 

Like other developing countries, including India, the process of economic development and nation building have often led to clashes between various groups.

 

In the late 19th century, conflicts took place mainly between the Buddhists, Catholics and Muslims.

 

The most serious riots against the Catholics took place in 1883 and 1903. Major anti-Muslim riots took place in 1915. But since 1958, the focus of Sinhala violence has shifted to the Tamils. Major anti-Tamil riots took place in 1958, 1977 and 1981-83.

 

This antagonism has led to a feeling of insecurity amongst the Tamils and the movement for Tamil Eelam or homeland was born out of this cauldron of hate.

 

The people of Tamil Nadu have historical and blood relations with the Tamils of Sri Lanka.

 

They will not remain inactive and watch the genocidal tactics of the Sri Lanka army against their brethren.

 

The rise of Dravidian parties has ensured a competitive backing for the rights of the Sri Lanka Tamils.

 

The late Tamil Nadu chief minister M G Ramachandran went a step further and linked survival of Sri Lanka Tamils with Indian nationalism.

 

Having studied insurgencies over last two decades, it is easy to predict that that the LTTE will revert to the classic first or second phase of Guerrilla War, that is, melt into jungles and populated areas and indulge in small unit hit and run actions.

 

Given the difficult terrain in jungles of Sri Lanka, the LTTE can continue this struggle indefinitely.

 

In addition, it may restart its terror attacks in capital Colombo and eliminate the Sri Lankan political and military leaders.

 

The LTTE is certainly down (as in 1988 when Indians had it down on its knees) but not out.

 

But must Sri Lanka, a beautiful country with friendly people, continue to bleed?

 

No. There is a solution, though it might sound simplistic.

 

Tamil Eelam is no solution.

 

The new State cannot be in peace with Sri Lanka as the Eastern province claimed by the LTTE has a mixed population; the boundary is not well defined and is 600 km long.

 

Perpetual bloodshed is predetermined in case of that outcome.

 

On the other hand, most Sri Lankan Tamils would be quite satisfied with an Indian type of federal structure.

 

The first step in the direction has to be taken by the Sinhalese by recognising that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic State and not a Buddhist one.

 

The Sinhalese have to give up their insistence on a unitary State and accept federalism, perhaps even a Kashmir-like arrangement, where Article 370 ensures that the Kashmiri identity is preserved.

 

A three-language formula could solve the language issue.

 

Sri Lanka also needs to ensure equality before law for all citizens and no Sinhala bias.

 

There should be open negotiations and a ceasefire. India could guarantee this accord.

 

Before an ideological dispute can be solved it needs to be converted into a tangible dispute over territory or rights.

 

The Middle East process only got off the ground once the Palestinians recognised Israel's right to exist and Israel in turn accepted the demand for a Palestinian state.

 

Once the ideological hurdle is crossed there can be give and take over territory.

 

Till such time this happens, there is very little chance of peace.

 

The world and major powers like the US and Japan have to convince or coerce the Sri Lankans into abandoning the path of military solution.

 

India has to act and realize that between inaction and military intervention, there are many intermediate tools available to it.

 

In dealing with insurgencies, Sri Lanka seems to be following the Pakistani model, where they have been using air power, tanks and heavy weapons which cause immense collateral damage.

 

We have been battling insurgencies for 60 years, but have never resorted to genocidal tactics.

 

Given the close links and relation between the peoples of the countries, India must intervene as a regional power, which could take shape in the enforcing a no-fly zone and similar restrictions.

 

India as a power cannot escape this moral responsibility and must use its clout to enforce peace.

 

Colonel (retd) Dr Anil Athale is a Chhatrapati Shivaji Chair Fellow of the United Services Institute and co-ordinator of INPAD, a Pune based think-tank. He is also the author of ‘Nuclear Menace: the Satyagraha Approach’ (Pub 1997). 

A group calling itself the Mahason Battalion has sent threats to the registrars of Colombo courts and a number of human rights lawyers, saying anyone who represents ‘terrorists’ or ‘suspected terrorists’ in court will face death.

 

If someone in Sri Lanka says, “I will kill you," it should not be taken lightly. Many who have received such threats lie in their graves – and there are thousands. It is easy to make such threats, and it is also easy to carry them out.

 

Addressed “to those who represent the terrorists today,” the document delivered to the courts said, in part: “The innocent people of our motherland have been subject to the killing sprees of terrorists for over three decades … But there is no one today to speak for the human rights of these innocent people.

 

“However, we know that there are many traitors who voice their concerns for the human rights of the evil terrorists and those who assist them in carrying out these indiscriminate killings.”

 

It warned, “In the future, all those who represent the interests of the terrorists will be subject to the same fate that these terrorists mete out to our innocent people.”

 

“Mahasona” is a Sinhala word meaning “the ghost that brings death.” The majority of those charged under terrorism laws are Tamils suspected of belonging to or supporting the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

 

This type of threat was widely delivered, and carried out, in the 1980s, which became known as the “period of terror.”

 

Around 30,000 people disappeared during this time according to official estimates, most of them from the south.

 

At that time groups associated with the state acted under a variety of names to issue and execute death threats.

 

One well-known group at the time was the “Black Cats.”

 

Sri Lanka has experienced extremely sophisticated death-squad operations.

 

During the period of terror, a list of persons to be killed would be circulated to several groups operating in secrecy.

 

This meant that even if one group found a reason not to assassinate a person on the death list, another group operating independently would carry it out.

 

Once on the list, a person had little chance of escape.

 

The mushrooming of death squads meant there was little chance of identifying the assassins.

 

This virtually prevented investigations. “Unidentified persons” were always blamed for the killings.

 

Another sinister aspect of the situation was that, once a state agency got involved with death squads, criminal gangs imitated their methods, giving the appearance that their deeds were state-sponsored.

 

 Some carried out the instructions of those seeking personal revenge, some were used to abduct people for ransom, some simply injured or killed business competitors.

 

Another unique aspect of Sri Lanka’s experience with death squads and extrajudicial killings has been that large numbers of innocent persons have been killed in order to ensure that wanted persons did not escape.

 

For example, the usual estimate of members and associates belonging to the group called the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or People's Liberation Front, in 1971 was around 2,000.

 

However, the number killed in a purge of this group is estimated at around 15,000 – 750 percent more than the estimated number of unwanted persons.

 

In the late 1980s this was exceeded when 30,000 people were forcibly “disappeared.” The deputy minister of defense who masterminded the operation later claimed that police officers acted excessively due to over enthusiasm.

 

A Dutch video journalist who reported on the killings in the late 1980s titled his presentation “Sri Lanka – Murder Land.”

 

There have been no estimates of the number of people killed in this manner in the north and the east in the last 30 years. But the south is now witnessing a return to the period of terror.

 

As for the north and east, it has always been a period of terror in which the forces of the state, the LTTE and others have made no secret of eliminating their opponents.

 

The following is an extract from the Final Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Involuntary Removal or Disappearance of Persons in the Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, made in September 2007.

 

It reminds us that Sri Lanka has done nothing to change its behavior regarding death squads.

 

“We are mindful that our recommendations should have relevance and be meaningful to citizens living in all parts of Sri Lanka. Priority must be given at all times to the avoidance of situations of disappearances arising.

 

“The security forces and the police are necessary adjuncts of a state. They are required for the protection of the state and the protection of the citizens of the state. The average citizen looks to them for protection.

 

“The tragedy of Sri Lanka lies in the distortion of relationships between the citizens and the security forces, including the police, which has resulted from the acts of both politicians and subversives.”

 

 

Basil Fernando is director of the Asian Human Rights Commission based in Hong Kong. He is a Sri Lankan lawyer who has also been a senior U.N. human rights officer in Cambodia. He has published several books and written extensively on human rights issues in Asia.

A minister in the Sri Lankan government has accused the police of arresting "five to 10 Tamil people" every day in the capital, Colombo, and its suburbs.

 

Deputy Minister of Vocational and Technical Training, P Radhakrishnan, told the BBC Sinhala Service that over 1,000 Tamils are already in detention.

 

He said that anybody carrying identity cards with addresses from LTTE-held areas is immediately arrested.

 

The Tamil Tigers are fighting for a separate state in the north and east.

 

The minister's figures have been corroborated by Sri Lanka's Chief Justice, Sarath Nanda Silva, who told the media last week that nearly 1,400 Tamils are currently in custody.

 

Mr Radhakrishnan is a leader of the Up Country People's Front (UPF) - which represents Tamils of Indian origin. He said that almost every person currently arrested in Colombo is an ethnic Tamil.

 

"Being Tamils is the only reason for these arrests," he said.

 

Mr Radhakrishnan stressed that he had no objection over suspected criminals being arrested.

 

The Sri Lankan police recently ordered people arriving in the capital from the north and east to register. They conceded that the majority of these people were Tamils.

 

The minister said he has received information that the police are using registration details to arrest Tamils in the capital.

 

His accusation comes as the government is urging Tamils in LTTE-controlled areas in the north to leave the war zone and go to government-controlled areas.

 

The UPF has urged President Mahinda Rajapaksa to take immediate steps to rectify the situation.

 

Mr Radhakrishnan's office says that it has also received information that at least 246 Tamil people have been abducted in and around the capital since January.

 

He says that 67 of these people had so far returned, but no information was available about the fate of the others.

 

Relatives of those missing have told the BBC that some of the abductions were carried out by people wearing security service uniforms.

 

The minister accused "several Tamil armed groups" of also being involved in the abductions but was reluctant to name them.

 

"We do not accuse the government but it has a duty to stop these abductions and find out what happened to those who were abducted," he said.

 

Neither Inspector General of Police Jayantha Wickramaratne nor police spokesman Ranjith Gunasekara were available to respond to the allegations.

 

But the government has repeatedly said that it was necessary to step up security measures after a string of bomb blasts and suicide attacks - targeting public transport and political leaders - in recent months.

Desertion rates soar in the Sri Lankan army, but as the military closes in on the Tigers, its new tactic of amnestying deserters seems to be working to some extent.

Just five months ago, a 29-year-old infantry soldier in the Sri Lankan army's 12 Gajaba Regiment exchanged fire with fighters from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in their stronghold in the island's northern Vanni region.

 

"The ground was shaking and shrapnel flew everywhere," he recalls, speaking to ISN Security Watch in Kurunegala District.

 

"Corpses lay everywhere. It was a bloody, bloody scene."

 

A bullet ricocheted off the back of his skull and got lodged in his upper shoulder.

 

Now as fighting intensifies in Vanni, Mahendran has received marching orders. Barely recuperated, he packs his suitcase in his mud-and-clay hut, preparing to return to the battlefield. 

 

The Sri Lankan army claims it is now within just over a kilometer of Kilinochchi, the LTTE’s de-facto capital, and the island's ethnic war is now reaching a decisive showdown.

 

As its troops push eastward into the interiors of LTTE-held territory in Vanni, determined to crush the Tigers, the government is leaving no stone unturned to win this war that has simmered for a quarter century.

 

It is calling back wounded battle-hardened soldiers like Mahendran.

 

And just this month, the Sri Lankan government announced it was increasing its defense budget by 6 percent from the previous year to SL Rs 177 billion (US$1.6 billion), a major chunk of which is being used to intensify army recruitment drives across the island, and even re-recruiting deserters by offering them amnesty pardons if they agree to return to the frontlines.

 

As fighting gets fiercer in the north, the army is whetting a large appetite for fresh recruits.

 

It launched its fourth recruitment drive in January this year, which will continue until 31 December.

 

So far, it has reportedly recruited 10,136 soldiers.

 

According to army spokesperson Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara, the army is currently looking to recruit another 24,000 during the next few months.

 

Already, the strength of the Sri Lankan army has swollen to 140,000 in recent years, which makes it larger than the British army in terms of personnel.

 

In recent months, the Sri Lankan Defense Ministry has been sending a nationwide text message imploring the country's youth to join the defense forces: "Young Patriots - come join with our armed forces and be a part of a winning team."

 

Many in an obscure, impoverished village in this district in central Sri Lanka have answered the call.

 

The soldiers interviewed by ISN Security Watch requested that the name of the village not be published, fearing they could be tracked down and censured for talking to the press.

 

In this dusty, bucolic village, dirt roads remain pitted with bone-jarring potholes, water shortages are common, the power supply is erratic and the nearest hospital is a good 48 kilometers away.

 

Seeking a path out of the grinding poverty - and unable to scrape a living from the slivers of paddy farms in this arid region - the entrenched 25-year-old war has become a career for hundreds of this village's youth from over 400 families.

 

Roughly half the men of fighting age have enlisted in the army, navy, police or other security branches.

 

Mahendran joined the army in 2002, and with his army salary, he bought a 19-inch color TV and a mobile phone and is planning to build a concrete house with electricity and a hand water pump in his backyard. 

 

Mahendran's elderly father, who goes by the name of Tushara, says he lives in a perpetual state of anxiety when his son is out on the frontlines.

 

Almost every month a corpse returns from the Vanni battle field and a pall of gloom envelopes the village.

 

In the last six months alone, seven bodies were returned.

 

"If there were any other job opportunities, I wouldn't let my son go to the battle field," he says.

 

In recent years, the Sri Lankan army has been plagued by a high level of desertions, a problem that has only been exacerbated as fighting intensifies, say military analysts.

 

But in desperate need for manpower to win this war, the government has also occasionally announced amnesty periods during which times deserters can rejoin the forces without penalty.

 

In 2007, the army, short of man power, announced an amnesty pardon for soldiers who had gone absent without leave since 2003.

 

This amnesty apparently resulted in the reinstatement of thousands of deserters.

 

By the government's own admission, during the last 6 months 4,004 army deserters have reported back to their units.

 

It launched an island-wide operation to track down and arrest its deserters who refused to re-join the army, and 2,984 soldiers and 21 officers who refused to report back have been arrested for deserting and will be tried in court.

 

If convicted, they could serve up to three years in prison.

 

The army refuses to acknowledge that desertion is a serious problem.

 

The army commander for Jaffna peninsula in northern Sri Lanka, Major General G A Chandrasiri, told ISN Security Watch that "deserters make up a very tiny figure - only 0.5 percent of the army.

 

"Most of them are soldiers who went absent without leave," he adds, saying a majority of them willingly return to the frontlines once offered an amnesty pardon.

 

However, the re-recruitment of deserters bewilders a leading Colombo-based military analyst who requested anonymity, fearing reprisals.

 

"If the army is really winning this war, as it claims it is, why are so many soldiers deserting the army?" he asks.

 

"No one would want to desert a victorious army, no?"

 

The army is creating a dangerous delusion of an imminent victory, he told ISN Security Watch.

 

Adept at guerrilla tactics, the Tigers won't go down without severely bleeding the army.

 

Over the past year, the Tigers have suffered a series of reverses on the battlefield.

 

Now, the Sri Lankan military is at their doorstep in the north, making rapid advances into Tiger-controlled territory.

 

But even though the Tigers have lost vast swathes of their territory, it is speculated that the Tigers still have thousands of hardened fighters.

 

As war reaches full-throttle in Vanni - on land, air and sea - the army is bracing itself for a possible chemical attack by the Tigers as it inches toward Kilinochchi.

 

The war is expected to get even bloodier in the last few kilometers.

 

There are about 200,000 civilians currently trapped in the Vanni battle zone.

 

"If the Tigers force the civilians to flee in all directions then the army will not be able to separate 15,000 Tigers from 200,000 civilians," the military analyst says.

 

"This may lead to a bloodbath and help the LTTE to escape to another part of Sri Lanka. I do not see the army crushing the LTTE without the loss of thousands of civilians and soldiers."

 

In Mahendran's hamlet, residents shelter at least six deserters.

 

Every time the military police raids the village looking for them, they sidle out of the hamlet into hiding in the near by paddy fields, residents revealed.

 

"The Tigers have survived for 25 long years. It's not so easy to crush them," says Priyantha, 28, who has deserted the army twice, the first time in 2000.

 

He rejoined in 2002, only to leave again in 2006. 

 

He says he abandoned the army for "personal reasons."

 

His family acknowledged he "couldn't cope with the bloodshed."

 

Currently living off farming, he leads a precarious life, always fretful of being caught by the police for abandoning the army.

 

"Prabhakaran is a brutal man," Priyantha says. "If he goes down, he'll take thousands of soldiers with him."

 

 

Anuj Chopra is a freelance journalist whose stories have appeared in The Christian Science Monitor and The San Francisco Chronicle, among other publications. Chopra lives just outside Mumbai in India and is the 2005 recipient of the CNN Young Journalist Award in the print category.

"The U.S. view is that the [Sri Lankan] government could further isolate and weaken the LTTE if it articulates now its vision for a political solution," said U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka Robert Blake while addressing an interactive session at the University of Madras on Friday, The Hindu reported.

 

While ruling out the military option, Mr. Blake has alluded that the U.S. position was to militarily weaken the LTTE to defeat it politically.

 

The United States has been a key player of the Co-Chairs for the Sri Lankan process, which has been managed by the facilitation of Norway till Sri Lanka unilaterally withdrew from the ceasefire.

 

Commenting on the U.S. Ambassador's views, Tamil National Alliance MP and the leader of the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO) Selvam Adaikkalanathan told TamilNet Saturday that the U.S. policy was "fundementally flawed" on three aspects.

 

First, the United States has approached one of the major national questions of the contemporary world as an 'LTTE-centric problem' to be defeated. Secondly, it has failed to grasp the reality of half a century old post-colonial lessons in Sri Lanka that Colombo would never be prepared to offer a viable solution to a weakened Tamil side, and thirdly, it contributed to weakening the diplomatic balance of power by isolating the LTTE and by hinting Sri Lanka and other countries to adopt a military solution.

 

"Approaching national questions solely on the basis of geo-poltical interests and overlooking crucial ideological and humanitarian quests of peoples is not a healthy approach to powers that seek to guide the world," Mr. Adaikkalanathan said.

 

"The United States is reaping the economic results of its global policies."

 

The U.S. Ambassador has observed in Chennai that the U.S. ban on the LTTE, which was followed by several other countries, has cut the flow of money and weapons to the Tigers adding that the "result of which could be seen in their recent military defeats."

 

Refusing to comment on the rising voice in Tamil Nadu for Indian pressure on Sri Lanka, the U.S. Ambassador has said India and the United States could use their "strategic partnership to good effect in Sri Lanka," The Hindu reported.

 

"The greatest failure of the last 25 years has been the failure of the main Sinhalese parties to reach agreement," the paper quoted Mr. Blake as saying.

 

The Hindu report summarised the U.S. view expressed by Mr. Blake in following words: "Moving forward on a political solution would have three-fold benefits - to reassure 200,000 refugees in the Vanni region that they can move south and aspire to a better future; to disprove the LTTE's claim of being the sole representative of Sri Lanka's Tamils; and to persuade Tamils overseas to stop funding the LTTE."

 

However, the U.S. Ambassador, who admitted that his government earlier helped the Sri Lankan military, said the United States has recently effected a complete freeze on all military assistance to Sri Lanka.