There was a sharp rise in violence in the already restive Batticaloa district this week as the shadow war between the Sri Lankan military and the Liberation Tigers which has claimed scores of lives escalated.

A Police constable was killed and another was wounded when they were fired in Kaluthavalai, 28 km south of Batticaloa town Tuesday. Two gunmen on a motorbike shot at the policemen who were also riding a motorbike.

Two motorbike-riding gunmen shot and seriously wounded a 50-year old man on Hospital Road in the heart of Batticaloa town Tuesday whilst he was on his way to work. The victims sons are in the LTTE.

On Sunday unidentified gunmen attacked a Sri Lanka Army (SLA) patrol returning to Kinniyadi military camp, 30 km north of Batticaloa town, wounding two soldiers. Two civilians were also seriously wounded in an exchange of fire which lasted 30 minutes.

More than 500 SLA soldiers cordoned off the area and launched a search operation following the clash.

The evening before, two grenades were thrown at the Kinniyadi SLA camp, damaging its sentry point. Ten Tamil youths were arrested in an ensuing search operation but were released Sunday morning. Separately, a Muslim woman was arrested for possessing two hand grenades buried in the grounds of her property.

A week before this incident, a group of Tamil youths in Valaichenai were attacked by unidentified gunmen using grenades and automatic weapons. A 14-year old and a 26-year old were killed whilst another eight Tamil youths, all between the ages of 16 and 23, were wounded.

On Saturday at least five unidentified gunmen and S:A soldiers exchanged fire for more than fifteen minutes in Kaluwankerny, an Army-controlled village in Eravur, 20 km north of Batticaloa.

Earlier in the day SLA soldiers and armed policemen cordoned off and searched the Sithandy Divison no. 2 and no.3 areas in Eravur. The house to house search operation continued till noon, with soldiers blocking civilian movement, stopping vehicles and closing roads.

A soldier was mortally wounded when gunmen fired on a SLA convoy on patrol in Eravur on Friday. He died on admission to Polannaruwa hospital.

Suspected paramilitaries riding a motorbike fired at two civilians in Kiran also in Eravur earlier Friday, wounding both. Residents said cadres of the Army-backed Karuna Group had stepped up attacks on civilians engaged in political activities supportive of the Liberation Tigers.

Also on Friday, a SLA Lance Corporal was declared missing for six days from his sentry post at Kiran.

A cadre of the Liberation Tigers’ civilian militia was shot and killed Wednesday by gunmen wearing Sri Lankan military uniforms. The gunmen had moved beyond the no-man zone and fired at the National Auxilliary Force volunteer who was on duty at Mayilavedduvan, 3 km west of Sithandy. The gunmen withdrew to the Mavadyvembu SLA base after the attack.

On Thursday evening forty-eight Tamil rice mill workers, were arrested by Sri Lankan police in a cordon and search operation in Army-controlled in Polannaruwa. They were released Friday following registration and documentation of their identities.

More than 500 policemen participated in the search operation which was reportedly triggered by a tipoff had infiltrated the Batticaloa-Polonnaruwa border area, in which several Army-backed paramilitaries operated a number of camps and safehouses.

Earlier last week, a Tamil Tiger convoy was ambushed by men in military fatigues at Vavunathivu, 5 kilometers west of Batticaloa. The LTTE said three of their cadres were wounded and that the attackers withdrew to the Vavunathivu SLA camp after a firefight on October 11.

Compiled from TamilNet reports

Sri Lanka’s military and the Liberation Tigers are locked in a ‘subversive war,’ visiting Norwegian envoy Major Gen. (retd) Trond Furuhovde said Friday, calling on both sides to exercise restraint.

“This is subversive war [and] both parties are involved in this,” Reuters quoted Maj. Gen. Furuhovde, the former head of the international truce monitors in Sri Lanka, as telling the Foreign Correspondents’ Association.

“The parties, as they are involved in a subversive warfare, have to show self-discipline. We believe that peace talks is an alternative which is very useful,” Furuhovde said.

“If they use force, they have to be sure whether it is necessary to use force and the kind of consequences it could bear,” he added.

“It is alarming. All war is alarming. This is dangerous for the ceasefire and for the country. … There is no military solution to this conflict, that’s for sure.”

“We have seen similar warfare going on Iraq, the transformation of war into something else,” Furuhovde added. “What we see now, it’s not only criminal acts, it’s also acts of war.”

Scores of LTTE members, Army intelligence officers, paramilitary cadres and civilians have died in a cycle of violence which escalated last year in the wake of the defection to the Army of a renegade LTTE commander, Karuna.

The LTTE says Sri Lankan military intelligence is deploying five paramilitary groups in a concerted campaign of violence against its members and supporters in the eastern province.

The violence, once predominantly occuring in Sri Lanka’s restive east and occasionally in the capitol, Colombo, has spread to almost other parts of the Northeast.

Last week, several people, including the principles of two of Jaffna’s well known schools as well as security forces personnel, suspected paramilitaries and LTTE members were killed in the northern Jaffna peninsula.

The LTTE last week called on international monitors to adopt a proactive role by intervening in matters that pose serious challenges to their mandate.

In a letter to Mr. Hagrup Haukland, head of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), the LTTE’s Political Head, Mr. S. P. Tamilselvan called for “effective steps be taken to drive home the reality that the SLA does in fact violate the spirit and letter of the CFA and the government adopts a condoning attitude and that this cannot continue unchecked.”

Accusing the Colombo government and the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) of operating with a “political agenda” to disrupt the Cease Fire Agreement and the peace process at large, Mr. Tamilselvan referred to the recent ambush on an LTTE convoy in Vavunativu.

“What stands out clearly in this episode and many others before, is the political agenda with which Colombo is manipulating matters to disrupt the CFA and the peace process at large, however much we as the other party strive hard and committedly to safeguard the integrity of the CFA,” Mr. Tamilselvan wrote.

The SLMM this week called for dialogue between military commanders on both sides to resolve growing tensions. But Gen. Furuhovde said last Friday there had been no breakthrough in arranging early negotiations between the parties and “I cannot say if the talks can be held in the near future.”

Last week visiting international human rights advisor Ian Martin, who is tasked with drawing up a human rights roadmap for Sri Lanka, believes introducing an international body with powers to investigate the ongoing killings could be the answer.

“The political killings are one of the most serious human rights issues, but the key problem there is to identify properly where responsibility lies and that’s why I think an impartial mechanism could be of assistance,” Martin was quoted by Reuters as saying.

“I raised the question of whether some international investigative capacity, the neutrality of which might be accepted by both parties, might not be useful,” Martin, a former head of Amnesty International, added, referring to talks he held separately with the Tigers and the government.

The shadow war between the Sri Lankan military and the Liberation Tigers has spread far beyond the island’s restive east to almost all parts of the Northeast, with lethal attacks taking place almost on a daily basis now. Visiting Norwegian envoy Major General (retd) Trond Furuhovde was last week bluntly critical of both sides. "This is subversive war [and] both parties are involved in this," he said. Even during his visit several people, including security forces personnel, suspected paramilitaries, LTTE members and civilians, lost their lives.

The people of Jaffna were acutely shocked last week by the murders of the principles of two of the peninsula’s well-known high schools. While the Sri Lankan government has blamed the Tigers for both killings, LTTE officials in turn have blamed Army-backed paramilitaries. However Jaffna residents suspect that one killing – that of Jaffna Central College principal, K. Rajadurai – might have been retaliation for the earlier one of Kopay Christian College principal Nadarajah Sivakadacham. Nadarajah was a leading organizer of the spectacularly successful Tamil Resurgence rally last month, whilst Rajadurai had reportedly been close to the paramilitary Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP).

The killings have shaken the Jaffna community, bringing, as it does, the horrors of the shadow war frighteningly close to their children. The Sri Lankan government and anti-LTTE propagandists, particularly those aligned to the paramilitaries, have sought to exploit parents’ anxieties. The Tamil community is familiar with the role played paramilitary groups, which have - since the Indian intervention of the late eighties - waged a dirty war on behalf of the Sri Lankan state whilst masquerading as political parties. Today, as ever, debilitating terror is the objective behind their violence. The gunmen hope to export the climate of fear they are fostering in the east to other parts of the Northeast, assisted by a Sinhala military delightedly fostering Tamil fratricide.

Both Colombo and the LTTE have declared a preparedness for talks, as demanded by the Co-Chairs of Sri Lanka’s donor community. But declarations are not matched by developments on the ground. Sri Lanka’s military is expanding its paramilitary capabilities. As long as the paramilitaries remain armed and operative in the Northeast, the LTTE members and supporters face a security threat and inevitably the organisation will respond with counter-violence. The inclusion of Clause 1.8 in the ceasefire agreement (obliging Sri Lanka to disarm these units) was intended to preclude the very situation prevailing in the Northeast. Maj. Gen. Furuhovde admitted last week that talks to resolve security issues are not in the offing. Indeed, as this newspaper and other Tamil voices have argued, the paramilitary violence is part of the wider military onslaught against the Tamil struggle. Moreover, it cannot be separated from the Sri Lankan leadership’s decided lack of interest in pursing a negotiated solution to the ethnic question. Whilst awaiting clarity on the prospects for peace, the people of the Northeast would undoubtedly share Maj. Gen. Furuhovde sentiments when he argued last week “if [the parties] use force, they have to be sure whether it is necessary to use force and the kind of consequences it could bear.”

With the unveiling of Mahinda Rajapakse’s election manifesto this week, November’s Presidential election has become, as the hardline monks of the JHU predicted it would, a referendum on Sri Lanka’s peace process. Addressing leaders of his Sinhala nationalist allies and fellow Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) members, Rajapakse rhetorically wrapped himself in the Lion flag Tuesday. “I love my country,” he declared, as he put forward what is effectively a roadmap to renewed war with the Liberation Tigers. He rejected Tamil self-determination outright, along with the notion of a Tamil homeland. Having discarded what constitute core elements of the ethnic question insofar as the Tamils are concerned, he also swore by Sri Lanka’s “sovereignty, security and the unitary character of the state.” So much for powersharing as a solution to the island’s protracted conflict. Rajapakse’s campaign officials, moreover, outlined his first order of business were he to be elected: a review - in other words, the dismantling - of the Norwegian facilitators’ and the international ceasefire monitors roles in Sri Lanka.

The ethnic polarisation ahead of November’s elections is thus now complete. Whilst Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) struggles to court the mainstream Sinhala nationalists whilst retaining the support of the island’s minority communities, Rajapakse is concentrating singlemindedly on the former. Both candidates are dangling subsidies – a crude but effective tactic – before the rural poor. But beyond that, however, Rajapakse is putting himself forward as a peerless champion of Sinhala-Buddhist nationalism. The Premier’s differences with incumbent President Chandrika Kumaratunga notwithstanding, the SLFP now appears to have settled into the right-wing coalition. Thus, bearing in mind who both candidates are wooing, the race is understandably described as a close one. But there are factors beyond voter ethnicity and preferences at play. Tamil analysts are, for example, anxiously eyeing the rising tide of violence in the Northeast. With the Army-backed paramilitary groups engaged in a shadow war with the Tigers undoubtedly angling for a Rajapakse win, and given Sri Lanka’s history of election rigging, Mr. Wickremesinghe cannot be sanguine about the Northeast. Southern analysts are meanwhile worried about the possibility election violence in the south.

The point is that the Tamils and other minority communities in Sri Lanka must seriously consider the possibility of a Rajapakse presidency replacing Kumaratunga’s. Furthermore, his is not merely election rhetoric. The JVP and JHU have thrown their substantial support behind Rajapakse with every intention of following through on their programmes. And unlike Mr. Wickremesinghe’s clutch of contradictory agreements, Rajapakse’s coalition are broadly united in their core aim: the preservation and strengthening of the unitary state and Sinhala dominance of it. The likelihood of a resumption of the conflict would thus rise. Despite the Premier’s rhetoric about all inclusive dialogue and preparedness to talk to the LTTE, the peace process will undoubtedly begin to disintegrate. Besides, Rajapakse has already outlined what he expects to discuss with the LTTE: its disarming. The JHU has meanwhile started beating the war drum, arguing that Sri Lanka’s leaders have overestimated the LTTE’s military capabilities. An increased defence budget has already been put forward.

It has not escaped the Tamils that Mr. Wickremsinghe simply cannot attack the principles being enunciated by Sinhala-nationalists or commit to power-sharing without alienating many of his own supporters and party officials. Indeed, given the SLFP’s election platform, his invitation for it to join his party and form a southern consensus speaks volumes about concealed sentiments within the UNP also. In one sense therefore, Sri Lanka has not moved forward from the Sinhala supremacism which underpinned the SLFP’s sweeping victory in 1956. Fifty years on, however, the stakes are much higher. A renewed war will usher in destruction and casualties on a scale hitherto unseen in Sri Lanka. But Mr. Rajapakse and his coalition seem remarkably undeterred.

In his much-anticipated Presidential election manifesto Mahinda Rajapakse said he would hold talks with the Liberation Tigers on “ending separatism, disarming and [their] entering the democratic process.”

In his manifesto, details of which were published in the Sunday Times this week, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate said he hoped that in forging a solution to the ‘crisis in the north and east’ to follow “the theme of undivided country, consensus of the majority and peace with dignity.”

“My prime objective is to have a peaceful political solution empowering all communities, without being tied up in the concept of the traditional homeland, self determination etc,” he said.

While seeking out a consensus by talking to “all democratic parties, … parties which are not represented in Parliament, … the Buddhist clergy, other religious dignitaries and sectors [and] members of the civil society,” he proposed parallel talks with the LTTE.

He said the consensus stemming from his discussions “[which] I will complete within three months” would be put to a referendum.

“I will give the LTTE a specific time frame and a specific agenda,” Rajapakse also said. I will have an open agenda on the following; Ending separatism, Disarming, Entering the democratic process [and] Final solution and its implementation.”

“If the majority accepts it, I will immediately implement it,” he said. “[Then this] national consensus reached will be openly put forward to the LTTE.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Rajapakse flatly rejected President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s aid sharing deal with the LTTE.

“The P-TOMS will not be implemented,” he said, referring to the Post-Tsunami Operations Management Structure (P-TOMS). Instead, he proposed a “a new programme known as ‘Jaya Lanka’ to rebuild the north and east with representatives of people from these areas and people’s organizations.”

He attacked his arch rival, Ranil Wickremesinge of the United National Party (UNP) for “weakening” Sri Lanka’s security forces by signing a ceasefire with the LTTE.

“Mainly due to the UNP’s action to enter into a Ceasefire agreement without farsightedness there has been several problems created,” he also said. “The agreement had been reached without the consensus of the people of the country. Attempts were made to forcibly put this agreement on the public, but the LTTE themselves have broken away from this agreement.”

“I will readjust (review) the CFA in a manner that terrorist activities have no place. I will take remedial action after reviewing the CFA monitoring process,” he said, adding “I will get regional co-operation [for this].”

Denouncing the intervention of foreign actors in Sri Lanka’s conflict. Mr. Rajapakse said “I have decided that a new approach should be followed to resolve the crisis in the north and east.”

“[The crisis] has spread throughout the country, without being confined to the north and east. It has spread over the region and even internationally. The interference of outsiders has complicated the issue,” he said.

“I believe that the intervention of foreign countries into our problems have been unnecessarily created due to the UNP which came into power in 1977 without a proper foreign policy. That was the past. Even in the present the UNF has been doing the same.”

I will have a balanced foreign policy,” Mr. Rajapakse said. “I will open discussions with neighbouring India on a priority basis on this issue. I will reach consensus on regional security and peace with them. I will also strengthen relations with China, Russia and Pakistan. I will also have open discussions with the co-chairs US, EU, Japan and Norway.”

In a section of his the manifesto titled “Protecting the nation; National Security and Security Forces,” he vowed “a new national policy on Defence to protect the country’s independence and national integrity.”

He also vowed: “I will build the security forces in a manner their morale is high, they will be well trained and well disciplined. Necessary practical and theoretical training will be given. A University of Defence studies will be set up.”

“Under the Ranaviru Gammana concept 50,000 houses will be set up for soldiers. A high-powered committee will be appointed to look into their problems.”

Sri Lanka’s tea production is on the decline because of increasing alcohol consumption among the plantation community, weekend press reports said.

The problem has developed into massive proportions in the plantation sector, The Sunday Leader reported, adding chronic drinking was so widespread the industry’s productivity – as well as lives are at stake.

“Often these workers do not turn up for the next day due to hangovers and even if they do, they often are drowsy and are unable to work properly,” says Alcohol and Drug Information Centre (AIDA) Media Spokesperson, Kumari Welegedara.

As a result the workers are prone to accidents frequently and many of them succumb to their injuries. Moreover, alcohol consumption results in poverty and family conflicts affecting their children, adds Welegedara.

According to statistics from the University of Colombo, habitual drinkers in the Estate community spend a staggering 40% of their income on alcohol.

The problem is not confined only to the plantation sector, The Sunday Leader said, adding: “in the rural areas too where farming remains the key livelihood, it has been observed that farmers consume alcohol before ploughing or harvesting their fields.”

Over 500,000 families are Samurdhi recipients and one third of their allowances from the state are spent on alcohol and tobacco, the paper said.

This could cause serious damage deepening the poverty level and depriving family members of their rightful livelihood, observes Sumitharayo Chief, Nalini Ellawala.

It is also noted that most often the children of these families become school dropouts and end up getting used to alcohol and tobacco themselves early in life.

Statistics from Sumithrayo reveal that one in every 10 school-going children drop out from school due to alcohol consumption in their respective homes. Also, for every alcohol consuming person, at least 10 other persons in the family including extended family members get adversely affected.

Ironically, in Sri Lanka though 50% of the women and 20% of the men do not consume alcohol, they silently admonish the non-drinker, the paper noted.

Preparing ‘bites’ to the drinker, supplying money to buy alcohol and condoling physical abuse in silence are some of the trends seen as encouragement to the drinker it also said.

While there are no separate statistics with regard to alcohol, statistics reveal there are around six million social users of drugs including tobacco and betel.

Around 5% of these people are on the borderline and could turn out to be addicts. Therefore anti-drinking organisations are targeting the social users, the motto being, prevention is better than cure.

Sri Lanka’s government announced last week it had decided to revise the stringent buffer zone regulations in tsunami affected districts with immediate effect.

After the December 26 tsunami the government declared a 100-metre area from the sea in certain coastal districts and 200 metres in others as “no-construction” zone.

However, there has been outrage amongst many coastal communities, as hotels and resorts for tourists were either rebuilt or newly built well inside the buffer zones.

Some analysts believe the buffer zone was becoming a potent election issue in the deep South. Campaigning is underway for elections to select Sri Lanka’s next President – and Premier Mahinda Rajapakse is a leading contender.

Last week the Government Information Department said the buffer has now been reduced to a maximum of 55 metres from the ocean, with some areas only needing to adhere to a 25-metre no-building rule in the southern districts.

The buffer zone enforced for the north and east will be between 100 metres and 50 metres, the government said.

Accordingly the recommended area for the buffer zone in the districts of Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota has been reduced to the minimum of 35 metres in certain divisional secretaries areas.

The 200-metre buffer zone introduced in the districts of Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Jaffna has been reduced to a minimum of 50 metres.

In the northern Jaffna district, the full 100-metre buffer zone will be enforced while certain areas in the southern Hambantota district will be subject to a buffer zone of 60 metres.

“District secretaries and divisional secretaries had requested the government to revise this buffer zone to accommodate special projects and those involved in fisheries related activities so that they can continue their livelihoods without much difficulty,” the government announced.

It said the Urban Development Ministry on the instructions of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse held discussions with relevant authorities including the affected families and agreed that the 100/200-metre buffer zone identified on the coastal belt could be revised under exceptional circumstances.

United Nations’ Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egelend who was visiting Sri Lanka last week welcomed the government’s decision on the buffer zones which many residents and aid groups have criticized because it has delayed reconstruction efforts.

In a recent report a campaign group, Tourism Concern accused the authorities for giving priority to large scale tourism development projects in the guise of tsunami relief while ignoring the needs of the local population.

The Task Force to Rebuild The Nation (TAFREN) is headed up by an extra-governmental body of ten members, six of whom are involved in the country’s tourism industry, Tourism Concern pointed out.

A recent team from Refugees International said they saw “saw numerous hotels and restaurants that had been quickly rebuilt within the zone … [while] fishermen languish in temporary housing several kilometers away from the ocean, with the prospect of being permanently resettled as much as five or six kilometers away from the coast.”

The campaign for Sri Lanka’s presidency was raised to a new high with a Buddhist organisation demanding the legalising of “moonshine” and cannabis and a jail term for abortion.

Affiliates of Gangaramaya temple in Colombo took out advertisements to announce their wish-list and urged candidates contesting the November 17 election to promise they will agree in return for their votes.

The Sri Jinarathana Technical College Circle and its partner, the Kataragama Gangarama Pilgrims’ Rest Circle of Gangaramaya Temple, 61, Sri Jinarathana Road, Colombo 2 demanded that cannabis growing should be legalised.
Areas where cannabis is currently grown illegally should be declared “protected zones” and the government should facilitate the export of ganja.

The group wants minimum standards imposed on “kassippu,” or moonshine to ensure that the illegally distilled spirits could be used to power motor vehicles.

They also want a plethora of duty concessions for imports, including mosquito nets, farm machinery, newsprint and essential food commodities.

Gambling must be restricted to floating casinos or gaming parlours located on islets, possibly such as the one near the Gangaramaya temple.

The group urges jail for abortion, but it was not clear whether they want it for the abortionist or the patient. It was also not clear why they sought jail for abortion, which is already a criminal offence.

The half-page advertisement under the headline “Which president will solve these?” was bordered with symbols from all the main religions and urged readers to make photo copies and circulate among friends.

It made no reference to the island’s drawn out ethnic conflict, contrasting with an advertisement by a beer brewer who wants candidates to make their policies clear on the peace process without auctioning promises.

Lanka seeks Middle Eastern tourists

Saudi-Sri Lanka tourism received a considerable boost this week as one of Sri Lanka’s tourism chiefs arrives to promote stronger ties between the two countries.

A high-level delegation from Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, led by the island nation’s Deputy Minister of Tourism, Mr. Faiszer Mustapha toured three major cities - Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam - over a ten day period from October 10-17.

“The Middle East is a strong and fast-growing market for tourism to Sri Lanka,” said Mr. Mustapha on the eve of his departure to the Middle East.

“The increase is underpinned by strong religious, cultural and trade links going back to 1000 BC when the first Arab traders sailed to our shores in the quest to find precious gems and spices.”

Sri Lankan Airlines now operates a total of 36 flights daily from the major cities in the Middle East including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Muscat, Kuwait, Doha, Riyadh and Dammam.

An increasing number of Middle East Airlines are also helping to drive tourist traffic to Sri Lanka. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Kuwait Airways, Royal Jordanian, Air Arabia and Saudi Arabian Airlines collectively operate 42 flights a week into the capital, Colombo. (AME Info)


Vets fan out over bird flu

Sri Lanka’s government is sending more than 230 veterinarians across the nation in an attempt to prevent an outbreak of bird flu that could decimate the poultry industry, a report said Sunday.

The veterinarians will warn poultry farmers of the risks of bird flu, the weekly newspaper Sunday Times said.

Booklets have been printed in Sinhala, the language of Sri Lanka’s majority Sinhalese, telling farmers how to minimize the risks, it said.

Sri Lanka produces 6 million kilograms of poultry products a year.

The Department of Animal Production and Health has advised farmers to report any symptoms of bird flu, which has swept through huge swaths of Asia, killing more than 60 people and leading to the culling of tens of millions of birds. The virus has also spread to Romania and Turkey.

Most human deaths have been linked to contact with poultry. But the World Health Organization has warned that the virus could mutate into a form that can easily be spread between people, possibly triggering a global pandemic that could kill millions.

Most of the human deaths have occurred in Vietnam and Thailand. The current outbreak has not affected Sri Lanka.


Army says human rights training complete

The Sri Lanka Army says it has concluded its five-year-plan to educate its officers in Human Rights (HR) and International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and held a ceremony for the final Instructor training course last week. Thirty-four officers from the Army, three from the Air Force and three from the Navy, were the final group selected to undergo the educational programme.

Over 500 officer instructors have been trained in the IHL and HR self sustaining plan and a few have been educated extensively to become permanent HR Co-ordinators.

In attendance was the First Secretary of the Royal Norwegian Embassy, Edgar Klorfjell, the funding agent, who acknowledged the provocation that armed forces could be faced with. However, he maintained that despite this, the training has taught patience and in consequence, significantly reduced the violation of human rights.

The main speaker was Senior lecturer at Colombo University Rohan Edrisinha, who explored the haziness surrounding the concepts of Constitutional Democracy and Federalism. He requested that the officers present should attempt to understand his viewpoint, even if they did not agree, before suggesting that, when the country is in a ‘State of Emergency’, excessive power is bestowed upon the police and the military. He warned the armed forces against abusing this power and, in doing so, infringing on the human rights of civilians.(Daily News)


Arson attack on HRC office

In what is seen as an act of intimidation, unidentified arsonists ransacked the premises of Sri Lanka’s National Human Rights Commission, doused sections of its headquarters with kerosene, destroyed files and set newspapers ablaze on October 12.

“It appears to be more of a threat,” a senior NHRC official told The Hindu. The NHRC is currently investigating sensitive cases including those relating to extra-judicial killings.

Police and the CID have started investigations.

In a joint press release, the Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch demanded an “independent investigation” into the attack. “Although the identity of the attackers is not yet clear, the attack represents a serious threat to the work of the NHRC,” the statement said.

The NHRC, established in 1997 was recently involved in “documenting allegations of torture and extra-judicial killings by the police.” It had also taken “a very strong stand against the LTTE’s recruitment of child soldiers.”

“This appears to be an attempt to intimidate the NHRC, which is the most important human rights institution in Sri Lanka,” Natalie Hill, Deputy Programme Director of Amnesty International’s Asia-Pacific Programme, said. She wanted the authorities to “take all necessary steps” to ensure that the NHRC is “able to carry out its work independently and in safety.” (The Hindu)


Laws for drivers’ physical fitness

Sri Lanka’s Transport Ministry will shortly bring in new laws to ensure the physical fitness of drivers of all types of vehicles as a precondition to their driving licence.

The new regulations will make it mandatory for all persons applying for a driving licence to prove his or her physical fitness at a test conducted exclusively by the National Transport Medical Institute (NTMI), Transport Deputy Minister Lasantha Alagiyawanne said.

In terms of the present law, only the applicants of heavy vehicle driving licences have to pass the fitness test conducted by the NTMI while applicants for other types of driving licences (for light and dual purpose vehicles) could prove their fitness through private medical certificates.

“The high rate of motor traffic accidents that take place on our roads has raised doubts about the credibility of these medical certificates obtained from outside. In fact we have discovered that around 13 per cent of all road accidents take place due to unfit drivers,” Alagiyawanne said.

According to NTMI Chairman Dr. Ruwan Wijayamuni, out of 800 drivers involved in road accidents who were referred to the Institute in the year 2004, 106 were found unfit to drive a vehicle.

“Twelve per cent of these unfit drivers had vision problems while there were five percent of diabetics and three per cent suffering from high-blood pressure. The majority who failed to prove fitness were above the age of 41,” he said.


Three men and a story

Wealthy Sri Lankan businessman Charles Gnanakone was taken into police custody for questioning last week in connection with the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in August.

A junior government minister last month accused the main opposition United National Party (UNP) of complicity in the killing by way of association with the one-tome shipping magnate.

The rightwing National Patriotic Movement earlier urged the government to question UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, as he had reportedly introduced Mr. Gnanakone to Mr. Kadirgamar.

Press reports said Mr. Gnanakone is suspected of involvement because he had once assured Mr. Kadirgamar that he would not be targeted by the Tamil Tigers, whom the government blames for the killing.

He was arrested by the Army’s Operations Command on October 10 and turned over to the Colombo Crime Division. He remains in police custody with his Australian and Sri Lankan passports impounded to prevent him leaving the country.

Deputy Minister Sripathi Sooriyaarachchi alleged late September that the UNP had worked hand in glove with the LTTE to plot Kadirgamar’s killing.

Claiming that the investigation into the killing had revealed the UNP’s alleged involvement in the assassination, Mr. Sooriyaarachchi told reporters: “The LTTE and the UNP benefited most from his death.”

He also alleged that Mr. Wickremesinghe had also met Mr. Gnanakone in Singapore in 1999, shortly before the Presidential election and only weeks before the assassination attempt, blamed on the LTTE, on President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Aid miracles possible from peace - UN

Development in tsunami-hit Sri Lanka will be long and difficult unless the government and Tamil Tigers turn the prevailing ceasefire into permanent peace, a senior U.N. official said on Wednesday.

"If there is peace in this country, we can perform miracles in the next couple of years, because there are enough resources available," Jan Egeland, the United Nations'' Emergency Relief Coordinator, told a news conference after visiting the island''s tsunami battered east coast.

"If there is no peace but war I foresee a long and difficult humanitarian phase where we cannot go into development very effectively," he added.

With Sri Lanka heading into a Nov. 17 presidential election that will set the course of future peace efforts with the Tigers and could well be followed by a general election, Egeland called on the government to ensure administrative continuity even if the political powers change.

"We also need a peace process that is making progress," Egeland said. "I hope that both sides will do even more to make peace break out in Sri Lanka."

He appealed to Sri Lanka to follow the example of a peace deal struck in Indonesia''s tsunami-ravaged Aceh.

"It''s very important that the parties to the conflict here see what happened in Aceh. Everybody''s benefiting in Aceh," he added. "This conflict is long overdue to be resolved."(Reuters)

ADB funds post-tsunami rebuilding

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a US$2 million grant financed by Japan, to help restore income-generating opportunities to poor people in Sri Lanka affected by the December 26 tsunami disaster.

More than a third of the estimated 500,000 people in Sri Lanka affected by the tsunami lost their incomes, the ADB said, adding that as many of the poor fishermen who lost their boats and fishing equipment are still awaiting their repair or replacement, they are still unable to go back to their pre-tsunami standard of living and are still dependent on government welfare programs.

The project will provide temporary income opportunities to about 4,500 of these tsunami-affected people by employing them to improve drainage systems for 500 kilometers of local government roads damaged by the tsunami.

The local roads will be selected from the Southern and North East provinces, and the southern part of the Western Province, with individual road subprojects to be carried out over four months each at different times over a span of 12 months.

The selected workers will come from tsunami-affected areas in Western, Southern, and North East provinces, and will be trained by selected nongovernment organizations on road rehabilitation work.

ADB has earlier approved $150 million grant and a $7 million loan for the Tsunami-affected Areas Rebuilding Project (TAARP) in Sri Lanka, which will help to improve the living conditions of people in tsunami-affected areas by restoring basic social infrastructure, community and public services, and livelihoods in these areas.


Norway aids ILO’s post-tsunami work

Norway has provided the International Labour Organization (ILO) with Rs. 180 million to speed up the tsunami rehabilitation work in Sri Lanka, saying the aim is to “contribute to social and economic reconstruction and poverty reduction in tsunami affected communities.”

With the Norwegian financial assistance, ILO will strengthen the coordination and monitoring mechanism set up by Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation (TAFREN), a press release by the Norwegian embassy in Colombo said.

TAFREN has, with the support of ILO, UNDP and the World Bank, prepared an “Income Recovery Technical Assistance Program (IRTAP)” which includes temporary income transfer scheme, cash for work and and support to revive and improve economic activities.

“This project would provide technical assistance to TAFREN for coordination of the livelihood component of Government of Sri Lanka ''s back to work program, and it would increase the institutional capacity of TAFREN to implement the income recovery program at national, district and divisional level,” the embassy statement said.

“We see the necessity to speed up the tsunami reconstruction work and are happy to contribute to TAFREN’s efforts for social- and economic reconstruction and poverty reduction", Norwegian ambassador Hans Brattskar said.

Major activities of the year long project include staff training, introduction of procedures and guidelines, setting up a management information system, employment of temporary staff, procurement of computer equipment, vehicles and motor bikes, research and studies, database development and publications.


Sri Lanka campaigns for Dhanapala

The election for a new United Nations Secretary-General is more than a year away but Sri Lanka has already started a sustained campaign for its candidate - career diplomat Jayantha Dhanapala.

Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga has written letters to all 191 member states emphasizing his qualifications and seeking their support but diplomats say it is too early for any country to make up its mind as they expect several other candidates to throw their hat in the ring for the $250,000 a year job.

Secretary-General Kofi Annan steps down at the end of his second term on December 31 next year and the political drama leading to election of new incumbent is not expected to start before the fall of 2006.

Dhanapala asserts that early start would give him advantage as he campaigning on the basis of his qualification and experience which, he says, make him very suitable for the job. But Dhanapala is not the only one who has officially declared the candidacy.

Thailand Deputy Prime Minister Dr Surakiart Sathirathai has not only offered himself for the job but also got endorsement from ASEAN. And others are sitting on the wings to emerge at a time they consider appropriate. A candidate being mentioned is President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland.

Court orders final report on Sivaram murder

The Sri Lankan police have been ordered by a Colombo court to submit a full report on the investigation held into the murder of popular journalist and senior TamilNet editor, Mr. Dharmeratnam Sivaram, by October 25, TamilNet reported.

The Magistrate, Ms. Champa Janaki Rajaratne, further directed the Secretary General of the Sri Lanka''s parliament Ms Priyani Wijesekara to submit a report on the ownership of the vehicle involved in the abduction and murder.

According to police reports, the vehicle belonged to a former parliamentarian and leader of the paramilitary PLOTE group, Mr. Dharmalingam Siddarthan.

The court had earlier ordered the release of the vehicle to Mr. Siddarthan, however he had so far not collected the vehicle from the custody of the court because of the ownership issue, the court was told.

Meanwhile a cadres of the paramilitary group, PLOTE wanted in connection Sivaram’s killing, is reportedly evading arrest amidst reports he may have even fled the country, the Sunday Times quoted detectives as saying.

Dharmaretnam Sivaram, 46, was a senior editor of the Tamilnet website and a writer for an English-language paper. Known to be a fearless champion of the Tamil cause, he was abducted from a restaurant on April 28 and his body found early the next day close to the parliament complex. Mr Sivaram had been gagged and shot in the head.

With five weeks to go before November’s Presidential election, the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)’s candidate is yet to publish his manifesto. With good reason – its contents will be dictated by how tensions between Mahinda Rajapakse and his party leader, incumbent President Chandrika Kumaratunga, are resolved.

Rajapakse, who is also Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, is setting a party precedent – he is the first candidate for the country’s top ruling post that is not from the Bandaranaike clan which founded the SLFP and has dominated its leadership since.

President Kumaratunga, who is precluded from competing for a third term, had fought to stay in office till next year to have adequate time to abolish the Presidency and seek election to an empowered Prime Minister’s post.

But agitation by the main opposition United National Party (UNP), whose candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe has - with the reluctant backing of the Kumaratunga-appointed Supreme Court - compelled an election to be held this year.

The Court’s ruling also galvanized Rajapakse’s challenge for the role – and promptly triggered created a split within the SLFP, pitting the old guard loyal to the Bandaranaikes against Rajapakse’s modernizers.

The rift spilled into the open in the wake of Rajapakse’s swiftly forged electoral pacts with the Sinhala nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Buddhist monks’ party Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU).

Kumaratunga has lambasted the Premier for not seeking her permission before signing the pacts which, she says, contradict the SLFP’s policies.

Kumaratunga’s brother, Anura Bandaranaike, has also lashed out at the premier– even though he was seated alongside when Rajapakse signed the pact with the JVP.

Ironically, until recently, the JVP and SLFP were in the ruling coalition, having jointly toppled the UNP regime in April 2004. The JVP quit the government in June this year in protest at Kumaratunga’s succumbing to international pressure to sign an aid pact with the LTTE.

For the past several weeks Rajapakse’s campaign has been hamstrung as the SLFP party machinery has dithered without clarity of direction amid swirling rumours Kumaratunga was going to discipline Rajapakse, replace him with another candidate or even dissolve Parliament.

None of these have come to pass, but the ongoing uncertainty has allowed the UNP and Wickremesinghe to surge ahead. Meanwhile Rajapakse’s Sinhala hardline stances have paved the way for the UNP to strike key alliances with the Estate Tamil parties and Sri Lanka’s largest Muslim parties.

Now, despite Rajapakse’s flying start, Wickremesinghe has closed the gap. Nevertheless, many observers say the race is too close to call.

But Rajapakse’s chances rest largely on Kumaratunga’s next move. If she eases off and supports him on the campaign trail, then Rajapakse may yet win. If, on the other hand, Kumaratunga remains hostile or even recalcitrant, then the SLFP machinery will drift directionless and Wickremesinghe should romp home.

Rajapakse’s camp has been somewhat encouraged after Kumaratunga addressed a rally by his supporters in rural south this week. They would have been cheered even more by the President’s apparent resigned acceptance that her political career may be over.

Kumaratunga told the rally in Wariyapola she would retire from politics in November after the election of a successor. She would not accept any political office after retirement but would be available for any other work in the service of the people of Sri Lanka, press reports quoted her as saying.

“I hope [the LTTE] would forget me and let me live a private life without fear,” Kumaratunga is reported to have also said.

The Daily Mirror reported Kumaratunga had even tried to airlift Anura to address the rally, but inclement weather had prevented the Air Force helicopter from making the trip.

In his speech Rajapakse pledged to safeguard party policies and he believed the President should not retire from politics but should be there to guide the party.

Sri Lankan newspapers have carried pictures of Rajapakse and Kumaratunga at the rally chatting and laughing.

But analysts of the island’s complex politics say the acid test is yet to come – the contents of the SLFP’s manifesto, due Sunday according to some reports. And the signs of internal strife are still there.

At the heart of the policy dispute would be devolution – or the rejection thereof.

Rajapakse’s pacts with the JVP and JHU leave no room for ambiguity – he is sworn to uphold state’s unity and territorial integrity. But Kumaratunga insists the SLFP is committed to devolution.

Political analysts say the SLFP’s past efforts at devolution have been nominal – weak proposals drafted originally in 1995 were repeatedly watered down under Sinhala pressure. The proposals themselves were binned in 2000 amid vehement street protests led by the JVP – and tacitly encouraged by the then opposition UNP, which refused to come to the SLFP-led coalition’s aid.

Nevertheless, Kumaratunga is insistent the SLFP must stand for devolution – an assertion she repeated from Rajapakse’s stage this week.

“Some may protest. But the SLFP-led PA is committed to devolution of power and this is accepted by more than 75% of the people of the country,” Kumaratunga declared as the Premier watched.

She said the SLFP’s strength had been its policies which could not be arbitrarily changed by any individual.

The President added even Wickremesinghe had expressed appreciation of the SLFP policy on the ethnic conflict. Notably her comments come amid calls by the UNP leader for the main Sinhala parties to unite to take on the LTTE in resolving the Tamil question.

Rajapakse needs Kumaratunga’s support to ensure a strong finish in November’s elections, and is visibly hostage to her notoriously unpredictable and self-interested moves.

And amid the stark polarization which has now emerged between Sri Lanka’s minorities, who are coalescing behind the UNP and the Sinhala nationalist rallying behind the SLFP, advocates of the peace process are daring to hope.

The United Nations Children’s agency, UNICEF, and the Liberation Tigers this week agreed to review a bilateral program drawn up two years ago to rehabilitate children affected by war, including former combatants.

“UNICEF concur with the LTTE that the Action Plan needs to be reviewed in the light of changing social necessities,” Ms. JoAnna Van Gerpen, the new Country Head of UNICEF in Sri Lanka was quoted as saying, following a meeting with the head of the LTTE’s Political Wing, Mr. S. P. Tamilselvan Tuesday.

The Action Plan was initially agreed in discussions between the LTTE and the then country head of UNICEF, Mr. Ted Chaiban, in March 2003. Based on the guiding principles of the best interests of the child, the plan spells out an integrated approach to programming for the welfare of children.

The plan covered Child Rights training, awareness campaigns, a mechanism for release and reintegration of underage recruits and a monitoring mechanism. It also included plans for micro credit facilities and income generation activities for children and their families and vocational training. The education, health and nutrition of all vulnerable children, as well as the provision of psychosocial care were covered under the plan.

Mr. Tamilselvan thanked the UNICEF Country Head Tuesday for her immediate and positive response to review and re-activate the Action Plan for affected children.

“UNICEF has a challenging job in this area to muster support from partners to provide livelihood for the families of children,” said Mr. Tamilselvan, while also acknowledging the difficulty UNICEF faced in organising gainful vocational training plans for youths.

“We will provide full support to implement projects for the betterment of children whether it is in health, education or employment through vocational training,” he promised.

Assuring the UNICEF Country Head that the LTTE is fully committed to working with the organisation and other partners interested in the welfare of children, Mr. Tamilselvan made a request that steps be taken to not allow the plight of children from war and tsunami affected families to be hijacked by people with political agendas.

“It is essential to look deeper into the problem of children seeking refuge with the LTTE, not just symptomatically but with a realistic causative perspective,” said Mr. Tamilselvan.

He said that the increasing numbers of youths volunteering to enrol are from the military occupied areas and is an indicator to the unbearable conditions of military harassment in those areas.

“There is no necessity to take in under-age children, but we have to look into the compelling circumstances that motivate these children to seek enrolment” Mr. Tamilselvan said.

“Unlike in the past, we have put in place a remuneration scheme for those between the ages of 18 and 40 and these are the recruits that are provided with military training,” he said.

Mr. Tamilselvan told the UNICEF Country Head that regardless of the political resolution to the conflict, the two organisations should work together to provide war and tsunami displaced families with a livelihood so that their children would benefit.

Expressing appreciation of the work done by UNICEF’s local representative, Ms. Penny Brune, Mr. Tamilselvan said that the other district representatives too should strive to understand the complexity of the problem of children seeking enrolment with the LTTE.

The time requirement for verification of age, wrong information and the family conditions are among the issues the organisation faces in determining the age of those seeking enrolment.

Japanese Red Cross in Trinco

Pointing out that 8000 families in the tsunami-devastated Trincomalee District, i.e. 10% of all households, are still suffering from unfavorable living conditions, the Japanese Red Cross Society (JRCS) said it is despatching a team with supplies to help.

“They are living in shelters, temporary housing, or staying with relatives or friends. In response to the situation, the JRCS is sending its staff and is delivering relief goods, essential to the everyday lives of those affected, in cooperation with the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society (SLRCS).”

“After April 2005, relief distributions in the Trincomalee District by aid organizations became infrequent and there is now little coordination of distribution plans between the organizations,” JRCS said.

“However, evacuees without permanent housing are staying in shelters where the conditions are very rough and difficult, so the demand for the commodities is still high.”

Hygiene kits (comprised of everyday items such as soap, toothbrush sets and towels) from the Red Cross are in high demand along with clothes.

On August 8 to 9, clothes, sarongs and saris, and hygiene kits were distributed to 2,100 families in Kuchchaveli on the eastern coast. Distributions were also conducted on the 18th in Ichilampattai and on the 30th in Kinniya.

The JRCS says it “continues relief distributions and other assistance to improve the living environment of the evacuees who are excluded from the recovery process and are going to be forgotten by the international community.”

Chickenpox vaccinations

Medical staff with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) working in collaboration with Sri Lankan health department staff, last week organized a vaccination campaign against chickenpox for 200 children in Kallady, a camp for tsunami survivors near the eastern city of Trincomalee.

The vaccination campaign for children under twelve followed an outbreak of the disease in the camp in September, IOM said. Some 35 cases among children and adults were diagnosed.

"Chicken pox, like measles, is highly contagious particularly among children in a crowded camp environment and it is essential to act quickly and vaccinate as soon as it is identified," said IOM Colombo Public Health Coordinator, Dr Qasim Sufi.

IOM health workers and health department staff last week also carried out a house-to-house health education campaign in the camp and met camp and religious leaders to enlist their help in stopping the spread of the disease.

Health volunteers were mobilized to visit every house in the camp daily to monitor any further spread of the disease and plans are underway for a visiting mobile clinic.

French funds for Trinco rebuilding

France will provide 74 million Euros (about US$ 62 million) to Sri Lanka in a bid to facilitate the rebuilding of the tsunami affected infrastructure in the tsunami-hit eastern Trincomalee district, the presidential office said last Wednesday.

The two governments signed three agreements in Paris in the presence of Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga who was visiting France, the office said.

A 64 million Euro (about US$ 53.6 million) credit facility at a concessionary interest rate and re-payable in 20 years, will finance the rehabilitation of the highway network, pipe borne water supply and power transmission facilities in Trincomalee, damaged by last year''s tsunami.

The second agreement was a memorandum of understanding (MOU) about the Greater Trincomalee Integrated Water Supply Scheme, under which France will provide 10 million Euros (about 8.4 million dollars) credit facility to Sri Lanka.

The French government also agreed to differ Sri Lanka''s outstanding debt of 6.19 million Euros (about 5.19 million dollars). An MOU to this effect was signed last Wednesday.

President Kumaratunga thanked the French government and people for their immediate help after the tsunami.(Xinhua)

Although thirteen candidates are contesting Sri Lanka’s Presidential polls in November, the race is essentially between the two leading contenders, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse, the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party’s (SLFP) candidate and the main opposition United National Party (UNP) leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe. The winner’s foremost challenge will be the Tamil national question. He will inherit a stalled peace process, a simmering shadow war, and one of the world’s most entrenched ethnic divides. The question, then, is what prospects peace under one or the other.

The platforms on which Rajapakse and Wickremesinghe are campaigning are already in the public domain. Although Rajapakse, unlike Wickremesinghe, is yet to release his official manifesto, the texts of his agreements with Sinhala nationalist parties have been published. There is already a broad split. While Rajapakse has signed agreements with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Buddhist Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) – both strongly Sinhala nationalist parties – Wickremesinghe has gained the backing of the main Muslim party, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), and the main up-countryTamil parties - the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and the Upcountry Peoples’ Front (UPF) - and the Colombo Tamil party, the Western People’s Front (WPF).

The Rajapakse coalition has a coherent and uncompromising approach to the peace process and the Tamil question. It stands by a unitary Sri Lanka, ruling out any form of powersharing with the Tamils, let alone the federal model proposed by the international community. Furthermore, the Rajapakse coalition goes further, calling for a review (i.e. redrafting) of the February 2002 ceasefire agreement underpinning the present peace process and questioning Norway’s continued involvement, saying “as it is axiomatic that Norway has shown unprecedented bias and partiality towards the LTTE in her role as a facilitator in the negotiation process … and in the monitoring mission of the Ceasefire Agreement and also as she has undoubtedly failed to act impartially in performing her obligations, it is agreed hereby to reconsider seriously whether the Norway should be allowed to engage in those activities further.”

With regards a political solution itself, the Rajapakse coalition sets out policies that reject the core elements of the Tamil demand for self-determination, insisting “no part of the Sri Lankan land shall be considered as the homeland of any racial group,” thereby rejecting the territorial principle on which powersharing could take place. In the interim, the coalition has explicitly rule out an interim administrative structure for the Northeast and vowed to nullify the Post Tsunami Operational Management Structure (PTOMS) aid sharing mechanism agreed by the Sri Lanka government and the Liberation Tigers.

Inevitably, these factors have alarmed the Tamils and Sri Lanka’s other minorities, not least they portend renewed conflict rather than resurgent peace. Some observers anxious about a Rajapakse win take comfort in the absolute power – and hence autonomy of action – the President’s office has, as Rajapakse, a relative newcomer to the levers of power, has no history on delivering to promises to allies. Indeed, recent press reports claim he has suggested to other potential allies that his agreements with the JVP and JHU are for election purposes only and will not actually be implemented.

Others even suggest that the JHU and JVP will be more pragmatic once Rajapakse wins, and less insistent their demands are followed through against international pressure. They argue that during the 2004 parliamentary campaign, the United People''s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), the SLFP-JVP alliance, challenged the ceasefire agreement but did nothing to negate it once in power. Given that precedent, it is argued that once, once elected, the right wing coalition will not change the status quo.

However, not fiddling with truce agreement is no longer enough. In 2004 the ceasefire was still holding comparatively well. At the end of 2005 the truce is unravelling amid a shadow war between Army-backed paramilitaries and the LTTE’s intelligence wing and pro-active efforts to shore it up are called for. Even the most optimistic observer has no idea what course of action a Rajapakse Presidency will follow to end the cycle of violence. If anything, Rajapakse’s Prime Ministership has been characterised by an absence of statesman-like leadership needed to carry out such a task, particularly in the face of resistance by the military and Sinhala hardliners.

When it comes to the question of a political solution, another factor that promptly weighs into the equation is the Sri Lanka’s powerful Buddhist clergy. Immediately after handing in his nomination, Rajapakse, an avowed Buddhist, was pictured before the prelates of the Maha Sangha seeking their blessings. At the moment, the Sangha is prepared to wait and see. And while it is possible that it will not create a public uproar if Rajapakse changes his stance on power sharing upon becoming President, that they will privately exert considerable pressure to support public protests by Sinhala nationalists and radical monks is undoubted. By way of comparison, the Sanghas did not publicly oppose the LTTE’s Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) proposal as there was no need for them to do so – President Chandrika Kumaratunga had already assured them the proposal would not be taken up.

Of course, this assumes, as the optimists do, that a victorious Rajapakse would contemplate such a transformation. But there are rational reasons why he would not – it will only serve to alienate his core constituency. Even if he does not plan to stand for a second term as President (and the deal with the JVP includes an abrogation of the role of Executive President during his first six-year term in office) he inevitably hopes to lead Sri Lanka as Prime Minister after that.

Many peace advocates are pinning their hopes on the international community stepping into ensure Rajapakse as President takes steps to gets the peace process back on track. While the efficacy of international pressure has recently been demonstrated by the shelving of the anti-conversion bill, the change in stance was effected under Kumaratunga, who has been vocal about her opposition to the agreements between Rajapkse and the JVP and JHU. Whether international pressure will have any weight on a President who is reliant on strongly anti-Western forces (and not forgetting that the JVP was anti-Indian when it thought that state was going to take a pro-Tamil stance) is questionable.

Another factor that will impact on the peace process after the Presidential election is the state of play in the parliament. The current minority Peoples’ Alliance (PA) government may regain its majority if the JVP rejoins it in the wake of a Rajapakse win. This will result in President and parliament coming under the right-wing coalition’s control – a unity of command that has not been seen since 2001 – strengthening Sri Lanka’s ability to withstand external pressure. This assumes moreover, that international actors can maintain their own unified position on peace in the face of their own competing interests.

If on the other hand the UNP were to gain the upper hand at a parliamentary election in the immediate future, this will result in different dynamics. Given that when Wickremesinghe was Prime Minister under Kumaratunga’s Presidency such a scenario is not unprecedented. Whilst Wickremesinghe may not have the bitterly acrimonious relationship with Rajapakse that he did with Kumaratunga, their competing interests does not auger well for the peace process, not least given Wickremsinghe’s record of deference to the President’s authority (on implementation of the normalisation aspects of the ceasefire agreement for example).

The historic antagonism between the two camps and the need to maintain his personal popularity in the face of a government led by the opposition will ensure Rajapakse is unlikely to take any steps to shore up the Norwegian peace process. And it is unlikely that the UNP, especially if Wickremesinghe leads it, will be in a position to present and push through a credible alternative – this is, after all, the party that accepted the dissolution of parliament even when it had a clear majority.

Therefore, the likelihood that the coalition’s agreements are merely rhetoric, and that a Rajapakse Presidency will in practice be based on a pragmatic willingness to “walk the extra mile for peace” seem slim. The question, though, is whether having Wickremsinghe in the President’s office is any better?

The UNP leader has launched a populist campaign with a market focussed election manifesto which also addresses the detail of the peace process. Promising to ‘defeat separatism,’ the former Prime Minister promises “a permanent solution … through a political solution based on United Sri Lanka” based on the Oslo and Tokyo declarations, which “guarantees the unity, democratic character and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka”. He also guarantees “the security and protection of the eastern province, while guaranteeing Muslim representation in the peace talks”. He vows a Muslim delegation shall be included in the peace talks and “views of the Muslim population will be ascertained at all times.”

Whilst his rhetoric about ‘defeating separatism’ is unlikely to seriously worry the LTTE, Wickremesinghe’s plans to include a Muslim delegation will face opposition from the Liberation Tigers who argue that peace talks should be between the parties to the armed conflict – the LTTE and the Sri Lanka state. Then there is the question of who the Muslim representatives should be – drawn from the fragmented political leadership, community or religious leaders, or simply Wickremesinghe’s divided political ally, the SLMC.

Similarly, while the manifesto promises to “establish a mechanism that will ensure the peace and security of all people living in the Eastern Province”, Wickremesinghe has a poor record as head of a government that, by failing to implement terms of the ceasefire agreement with regards to the disarmament and removal of paramilitary groups, precipitated the lack of peace and security in the region today. Admittedly he faced resistance from Kumaratunga, but there are questions about his resolve in facing down a belligerent military.

While on the surface Wickremesinghe has a good record on the peace front – he signed the ceasefire agreement with the LTTE, thereby kickstarting the process and held several rounds of talks with the LTTE – it does not stand up to close scrutiny. Wickremesinghe has a history of making promises that were not delivered. The collapse of the Sub-committees on normalisation, rehabilitation and de-escalation, the abrogation of the agreement to solicit international aid jointly with the LTTE and the failure to implement the ceasefire agreement eventually led to the LTTE walking out of the talks.

Wickremesinghe has also promised to “speed up the post-tsunami reconstruction and rehabilitation of the East under the to-be appointed competent authority”. What this means for the P-TOMS is unknown, but with a history of marginalizing the LTTE, contrary to the views of many, tsunami-related aid is likely to a source of acrimony, rather than amity.

While the international community may have more sway over Sri Lanka in a Wickremesinghe Presidency, given his history of working with Western nations (as demonstrated by his pursuance of an ‘international safety net’ during his Prime Ministership), it remains to be seen if he can implement crucial decisions – such as disarming the paramilitaries and sharing aid with the LTTE – in the face of vehement resistance from the Sinhala right. Thus, even if the international community does pressure Wickeremesinghe, what he can deliver may be restricted. If the parliament is controlled by the UPFA with a majority – which is likely if the JVP rejoins the PA after Kumaratunga leaves – then he will need to deploy the Presidency’s considerable powers to effect changes.

But, like his rival in the November polls, Wickremesinghe has no record of statesman-like leadership. Given his previous leadership of the country was characterised by an unwillingness to take bold decisions and the constant seeking of a political consensus, which was never forthcoming, it seems unlikely that he will challenge a UPFA parliament. All hopes rest therefore, on a Wickremesinghe Presidency supported by a UNP-dominated parliament. This is by no means certain. Although Wickremesinghe is backed in his Presidential bid by a number of minority parties, the Muslim bloc is not likely in parliament, given the fracturing of Muslim political representation, and the CWC has a history of pursing unabashedly interest driven alliances. In short, a decisive majority in Parliament may not prove forthcoming.

Then there is the Sangha. Powersharing in Sri Lanka ultimately means weakening the clergy’s grip on the state. Given Wickremesinghe’s proclivity for political consensus and his lack of firm leadership, only the hopelessly optimistic can expect him to demonstrate the determination, tenacity and resolve to force the peace process through to a solution in the face of the customary intense resistance the Sinhala right wing and the Buddhist clergy will put up.

Therefore while on the face of it Wickremesinghe may look like a more positive bet for the peace process than Rajapakse, the reality is that he is faces odds and is beset by weaknesses that ultimately make him a long shot too. While Rajapakse has already taken a fiercely anti-peace stance and has little incentive and almost no inclination to change after winning, Wickremesinghe’s all things to all people agreements and cautious and conservative temperament suggest that he will be unlikely to deliver the shot in the arm the peace process needs. In short, regardless of who wins the Presidential polls, the prospects for a revival of the Norwegian initiative look slim.